Get started

Bondyields

US10Y Inflation has peaked according to the bond yieldsThis is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that the market has been trading is since 2013. There is however a possibility of not dropping to a correction before one last test of the Higher Highs as it happened both on mid 2018 and the September 2013 H&S patterns. As a result, we should approach this in terms of Resistance and Support break-outs. Above the Resistance, expect one last Higher Highs test, below the Support expect a plunge towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). But why is this US10Y top formation pattern so important and what does it have to do with the Inflation Rate (red trend-line)? Well as you see within this 9 period price action, the two symbols are very correlated. In fact, every time the US10Y hit the top of its Megaphone pattern, Inflation peaked and started to follow the US10Y lower on its correction. As a result we can say that this is the first indication we've had in a long time that the raging inflation that started in May 2020, may finally be getting under control. If so, this could be the ideal time to get back into stock buying as early as possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
3
A Look at 30y US Bonds, Fed Fund Rate and InflationTreasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June 15 '22 Summary of Economic Projections). The bond market had been signaling the need for FED fund rate hikes for some month already. Looking at it from a EUR buying perspective you can currently get 30Y treasuries at around 3.3% (2.75 - 3% nominal plus slightly stronger EUR at the time of writing yield with an ~5% lower price still. Forecasting a continued weak EUR and a top of the fund rate at around 4% these treasuries ought to be bound to rise latest in 2024. Newly issued bonds ought to be reaching 4% soon. If so those will be attractive too. It should be noted that there is no guarantee that the FED (nor the ECB) will be able to contain inflation or the starting recession. The EU is likely to be hit harder for both. That said the FEB may continue and we may end of up with much higher FED fund rate of above 4% (5%, 6%, .....). This scenario seems unlikely as such high interest rates would break the financial markets and econimies. It is to be noted that the FED's fund rate it approaching to be break a downward trend since 1984. On the chart the trend from 1988 has already been broken. This chart does give some indications of the dependencies of these three key figures. But one can easily spot that it is not a clear when X goes up then Y does too. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
TVC:US30YLong
by CarpeMomentum
BTC/US30 Quick Analysis | BTC 📉 Although BTC may be considered as a 'new safe heaven', 'digital gold' and etc., it is actually one of the least safe investments. Whereas, 30 year US bond yields tend to be on the safest side in comparison to all financial assets. By analyzing financial assets against commodities or safe financial assets you take away fiat currency fluctuations. Which are generally dependent on government policies, balance of trade and sensitive to supply/demand shocks. Thereby, I believe pairing a financial asset of interest against these more stable, less volatile assets (e.g, gold, bonds) may be beneficial for analysis. This makes trading Cryptocurrencies a little clearer/easier
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Sanzhar_m
Full Fundamental & Technical Analysis - BTC We are living in arguably the most interesting time for all financial markets. Some economists, politicians, and business entities know the saying: “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Now, no matter how you interpret this statement the U.S accounted for over 20% of the expansion in world RGDP during the past two decades. Moreover, U.S' correlation coefficient for Economic Growth compared with the rest of the world is over 0.8 (impying great significance). Thereby, I will use U.S bonds throughout my analysis to explain price changes in BTC. Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies are classified as high risk and volatile trading assets, and therefore the value/price of these digital assets is greatly exposed to exterior influences (news, Elon Musk's Tweets, and etc...). The chart above shows the Log(BTC): - Breaking-out it's long-term channel - Successfully retesting it's old support line (or new resistance) - Starting a new Bearish trend For Retest Zone 1: Global Investors' confidence has been decreasing. For maximisation of relevant content I have only attached Investor Confidence Index as proof. www.statestreet.com Macro analysis may potentially explain these changes: *** Short-term bond yield reflects Fed's Monetary Policy changes *** Long-term bond yield mirrors Inflation *** The Spread is the difference between the yield rate in the two bonds (10-2)yr From above we may derive: - Inflation's impact on Fed's interest rate policy - 4 cycles of an economy - Some use for predicting recessions Looking at the chart we are at risk of going into a recession. This analysis stresses the extent to which Macroeconomic indicators are important in explaining, evaluating, and predicting Investors' confidence. “Historically, a US recession tends to follow a year after the curve inverts, though the variance is large and there are occasional false positives,” said Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities. (Financial Times, APRIL 6 2022) Evidence of impact on BTC: (using average volume as an indicator of investors' confidence) When BTC's average volume started gradually decreasing - the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread reversed direction, and started heading down to 0 (Figure 1). BTC dropped by almost 75% (from ATH) at the same time the spread dropped with great momentum (Figure 2). Figure 1: Figure 2: This is my first TradingView Idea, I'd really appreciate some feedback :) I enjoyed making this post and plan to conduct further analyses on retest 2 shown on the charts above (current retest). Thanks for your time! Stay safe
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Sanzhar_m
2
How long could deflation last? What about bonds?As most commodities are currently collapsing, it is very hard to keep believe that inflation is going to go higher from here. June could be the first month with a negative MoM CPI print, but it probably won't be the last. As deflation is taking inflation's seat, bonds have been looking attractive for some time. Essentially we got a blow of top in yields (capitulation bottom in bonds), and now bonds are rallying. It's totally normal as bonds took out the lows, and are now showing major strength at a time where the dollar is strong, while commodities, stocks and real estate looking weak. The truth is that there is no escape from a major global recession. Commodities could fall a lot more until Central banks reverse course. There is too much debt and the only way to get out is by printing, while all the rate hikes will only eventually result in a crash. It's just that rate hikes have a delayed effect and most investors haven't realized what is coming yet. Is the inflation story over? I don't think so. We are just in a very a nasty recession, that could lead to a deflationary collapse. Essentially a liquidity crunch that would cause investors to capitulate, and then force the Fed to step in to save the system. There is no way the Fed will hike rates more than 0.5-1% from here, and there is no way the Fed won't be forced to cut rates and resume QE by June 2023. The bond market reversing like this is an indication that the Fed is about to make a mistake by raising rates once or twice in the next few months, as bond yields are already coming down. It's interesting that bond yields rose more than in 2018 before they reversed and fell below the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), yet FFR is currently 0.75% lower than when the Fed paused in 2018. Could easily see FFR getting down to 0 in the next 12-24 months as the financial system faces collapse yet again, but I don't see bond yields going as low as they did during Covid. What I see is long duration bonds going up to the key breakdown zone, around 130-135 on TLT or bond yields going up to 2.4-2.6% before moving higher again. Essentially I do see a major deflationary episode ahead, I do believe bonds can go up, I don't believe the Fed will ahead of the problem and that there isn't much they can do. However at the same time I don't believe that the inflation story is over, as I do see higher inflation coming once we are done with this episode. Why? Because a lot of production of stuff will go offline, while governments print a ton of money to save the system. Less goods, more money... No way inflation won't happen again. The debt bubble is popping and long term this is inflationary. So far we've seen bonds divergence from their long term trends, first with a blow off top, and then with a rapid decline that swept the lows. Could we get back into the main trend? It's possible, but I don't think so. All I see is a similar retest to what we go in 2021, where bonds broke down and then retested the breakdown level before going lower. TLT will fill the gap and then decide where it wants to go. Definitely wouldn't be surprised if bonds chopped in a certain area for a while, but ultimately I think we are going lower. Of course we could go lower even during a deflationary period, as everyone is liquidating whatever they can. If people need dollars, they will sell anything for them, including dollars. At the moment bonds are still very attractive, yet this doesn't mean that if people need cash they will hesitate to sell them.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BitcoinMacro
4
US10Y Testing the 1D MA50 againThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been on a pull-back in the past 2 weeks and is close to testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This held last time upon contact on May 26 and constitutes the first Support. We may have a Channel Up pattern in formation and the 1D MA50 sits almost exactly on its Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line. A 1D candle close below it, could open the way for the greater and much anticipated technically correction to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is untouched since December 29 2021. That also sits currently on the Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 20 2021 Low. If the Channel Up is validated again though, there are currently higher probabilities to see the bullish trend extending back to the 3.500 Resistance and if the 3.0 Fibonacci extension on the Channel breaks, aim the 3.5 Fib ext level. Notice how well of a buy entry the 1D RSI's Higher Lows trend-line has been since July 16 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
1
BUY IN THE LONGTERM ALONG THE DESCENDING CHANNELThe Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8 years of negative interest rates, in an attempt to curb record inflation, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending and investment. The European Commission expects the EA GDP growth at 2.7% for 2022. ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed plans to hike rates twice this summer. The Euro Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.04 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.00 in 12 months' time. Net positions of large speculators declined significantly by 112% to negative sentiment in the futures market on the 14th of June 2022. We expect to hold 3 months Call contracts along the lower bands of the descending channel
Long
by dynamiquebd
Btc potential moveif btc close below 19k this weekend, i can sey the next week will be historical. there are to supports waiting for the btc fist one is between 18k-16900 , and the second is between 13900 and 11800. Not forgetting what is going on in the global economy, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which will cause investors to sell their positions in riskier assets ( crypto , stocks) and lead to a significant drop in these markets. These investors will prefer to put their money into bonds that the federal government will print at higher yields. that is my personal opinion.
Short
by moadsr01
10 yr yield VS Inverted S&P 500It appears 10 yr yields have peaked which should be great for equities. Interestingly when you flip the S&P 500 you pretty much get the yield curve. We have seen clear inverse correlation. Oil and Nat gas also looked like they topped so I suspect peak inflation has been reached for a while and the fed may begin to pivot and either hike much less (25 bps), stop hiking, or lower the rates as rates follow bond yield. This will make for excellent tailwinds in asset markets.
SP:SPX
by ceesounds
2
US10Y Slowly upwards to the end of year, huge rejection after.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone with Higher Highs and Lower Lows since late 2013. The current 1W RSI pattern resembles that of the price Channel Up that in 1 year led to the most recent Higher High in 2018. As a result, we expect a slow Channel Up towards the end of 2022/ early 2023, which will add to the current stock market uncertainty/ volatility, but then strong bearish reversal, if the Higher Highs trend-line/ top of the Megaphone holds. That can fuel a strong bullish reversal on the stock market (S&P500 index displayed in blue on this chart), as it happened in 2019. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
7
US10Y Aggressive correction possibleThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down on the 1D time-frame with the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) as the Resistance and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support. This is turning into a tight squeeze and whatever level breaks first, should give us the direction on the longer term. A break below the 1D MA50 can see the price correct aggressively by filling the gaps on the lower MA levels, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level would be a fair target. This resembles so far the correction of April - July 2021, which bottomed below the 1D MA200. On the other hand, I expect a bullish extension if the 3.205 High breaks towards the -0.236 Fib. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
EUR/JPY - BUY SET UP ON ECB RATE HIKES The EURO now sits under 138.000 on the exchange rate, a key resistance level that will now surely break after European Inflation hit 8.1% for the month of April 2022, igniting the debate about whether the ECB should be raising rates at 0.50% increments instead of 0.25% increments as signaled by Christian Legard. With European Bond Yields climbing and paying a premium over Japan, the EURO will likely continue to strengthen against the YEN as interest rates rise in Europe. The overnight carry trade will start to become profitable for the EURO into 2023, which is likely to attract investors into buying the currency pair.
Long
by KayansMarkets
EUR/JPY - BUY SET UP ON ECB RATE HIKES The Euro is now highly likely to catch a strong bid against the Yen after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September 2022. Interest rate differentials on Government Bonds will support the EURO higher. In this video I breakdown the historical relationship between the difference in Japan and Europe's interest rates and how the currency pair follows the negative or positive change in European Bond Yields relative to Japan.
Long
by KayansMarkets
USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king. 1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down. 2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside. 3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend. 4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800 5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow. 6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my idea, would be great if you could like and follow :D My target is to benefit as many traders as I can with practical knowledge which would give you confidence. Let me know if you have any questions or if there's anything more I can do to help! Thank you <3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDShort
by Exactus
2
US10Y broke a historic trend-line from 1981. What's next?The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well. Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018, which is currently the Resistance, we have to consider the implications of this historic break-out. The 1M RSI has also hit a multi-year long Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, making it a Resistance. Unless the November 2018 High breaks, we may see the 1M MA200, even the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) being tested as Supports. A break above the November 2018 High though, will basically confirm a historic change on yields, especially as the Fed has already announced plans to continue raising the interest rates aggressively in an attempt to battle the raging inflation. The green trend-line on the chart represents the Federal Funds Rate and as you see its Highs have historically matched roughly the Highs of the US10Y. Since the Rate is now still relatively low and as per the Fed's remarks, we are still early in the rate hike cycle, we can see the US10Y break much higher in an aggressive manner in the following months. So what do you think? Does this break mark a historic change on bond yields? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
5