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CADJPYHello traders, As it comes to CADJPY, I see that after the positive CAD news on Friday, this pair has been sold hard. I see a break of Trend line and support zone and I can see a Friday closure at retest price action. Perhaps the pair might go up for a bit, but this will indicate nice short opportunities to the previous support zones. Note: The Bank of Japan perfoms an intervention to mitigate the YEN's depreciation. So, Yen may buy from now on invalidating last year's falling performance. Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
Time for some JPY strength? The Yen is weak... The weakest against the dollar I have ever experienced in my trading career... Economically though, Japan is not in the worst situation, especially when compared to key economic figures... Current global inflation rates; US 8.2%, UK 10.1%, EU 9.9%, AUS 6.1%, CAD 6.9%... Japan 3.0% GDP growth; US -0.6% (recession), UK 0.2%, EU 0.8%, CAD 0.8%... Japan 0.9% Unemployment rate; US, UK, EU, AUS all due an increase... Japan steadily low for months The issue with the JPY weakness is the USD strength caused by raising inflation and JPY weakness caused by BOJ monetary policy USD Strength - with inflation potentially now pivoting, USD buying pressure may ease. With a 2023 recession becoming more apparent, cash could move to the Yen as a safe haven JPY weakness - the intervention is not working. The BOJ are likely to make a change in their monetary policy stance, helping to end the Yen selling. From a technical view, price is looking overbought and over-extended. A move toward the weekly 50 SMA is due. Divergence on the weekly RSI and a head and shoulder reversal pattern forming on the 1 hour. If price breaks higher, 155 may be the next level of interest, where price could start it's reversal down... The next BOJ monetary policy release is 28/10/2022...
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
Another whipsaw day for the yenThe Japanese yen is sharply lower today, as USD/JPY has climbed 1.2% and is trading at 149.41 in Europe. The yen continues to exhibit strong swings for a second straight session. The yen started the week with sharp gains and jumped to 145.28, but the dollar has recovered and pushed the yen back above 149. This is a repeat of the whipshaw we saw on Friday, when the yen traded in a range of almost 600 points. The wild price action is most likely a result of intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF), although Japanese authorities are staying mum. Prime Minister Kishida said today that the government would not tolerate excessive currency moves based on speculators, but this rhetoric is nothing new.  The yen hit a new 32-year high of 151.95 on Friday, and the MoF may have decided to take off the gloves and has intervened for a second straight day. Will the stealth intervention succeed in propping up the yen? The move did the job on Friday, with USD/JPY falling 1.7%, but the dollar has recovered most of those losses on Monday. The harsh reality is that the widening rate differential between Japan and the US will make unilateral intervention unlikely to succeed. The Fed continues to ramp up interest rates while the Bank of Japan zealously has capped rates on JGBs. This included an emergency bond-buying package last week to keep yields on 10-year bonds below 0.25%. The yen has plunged a staggering 22% against the dollar in 2022, and speculators are betting that the yen's slide will continue. The BoJ meets for a two-day meeting on Thursday and Friday. If the Bank maintains its dovish policy stance and refuses to provide the yen with a lifeline, the currency is likely to fall even further. USD/JPY faces resistance at 147.50 and 148.59 There is support at 145.23 and 143.14
by OANDA
USDJPY going ballistic despite BoJ intervention - 1 month TF Last idea " has usdjpy gone ballistic already " was based on a 1 month timeframe trend. The chart is consistent, BoJ intervention did not change the trend so far. Let's wait for month close, though. On a shorter TF like 1W, 1D we can see BoJ intervention pushed USDJPY a little away from my ballistic trendline for a few trading hours; now it is back in trend. Please remember that back in the 80s, USDJPY lost 50% in a couple of years. Ballistic trendline suggests +100% in a couple of years.
Long
by mr_mirror
1
USDJPY Top? Reversal Confrimed by BoJ but not by 10 YR US YeildsMarkets finished last week in volatile fashion after a drop on USDJPY on speculation of BOJ intervention, which also had an impact on other markets. This JPY volatility has resumed today with another back and forht moves with 400 pips on USDJPY following Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda comments from clarifying whether they intervened in the market but reiterated that they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive, disorderly market moves. We see sharp drop on USDJPY after a completed five wave rise near 152. Notice that the drop is sharp, but not clear if that is a top. It may all depend on the upcoming direction on US yields, which so far turned nicely down, but cant say that uptrend is down when trendline still holds and yields trades above 4%.
by ew-forecast
2
XAU/USD declines from $1,670 in the face of a turbulent DXYThe price of gold has fallen significantly since it crossed the $1,670.00 barrier. The US dollar index (DXY) has become extremely volatile due to rumors that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened in the FX markets to strengthen the Japanese yen, which has put some fair selling pressure on the precious metal. The Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at their meeting in November, according to Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). However, Monday's news that North and South Korea had fired warning shots at each other along their disputed western maritime border also appeared to have helped recent US dollar purchases. Concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping would not hesitate to intensify geopolitical issues with the US when it comes to Taiwan may be on the same lines. The third consecutive victory for Jinping at the annual Communist Party Congress may have contributed to the cause. Future gold price declines are anticipated due to uncertain market conditions and challenges to sentiment.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by TradeyMarkets
Comparing BoJ interventions and Anticipating Future OnesJapan's PM Kishida claims, he cannot tolerate excessive FX moves by speculation. But given the circumstances of the message, I understand 'speculation' as an excess of supply and lack of demand. Anyway, I will not argue with the correctness of his wording, political or otherwise, and will just compare the similarities. ► The interventions started after breaking 145 and 150 (151) price levels respectively. ► First, the levels were gently grazed by a candle which later becomes huge doji with above-average volumes closing below such price level. This is likely an anticipatory price action and not a part of the intervention. ► After the price breaks above the key levels for the second time, it stays there for at least an hour into either London or New York session before the intervention starts. ► Both interventions took the price down roughly 3.4% in less than 90 minutes. The low of either intervention was never breached. ► It is likely a mere coincidence, but both interventions were conducted on the 22nd and 21st day of the month. What may be less of a coincidence is that both of them took place in the latter part of the week. This suggests some planning, not just reacting to the level. ► I would argue that the trigger level of the second intervention was not 150 but 151. If that was the case, no key session has been allowed to close above a trigger level. ► Lastly, I would like to point out that the first intervention took the markets off-guard. Not the second one. Raiders, me-included, actively bought the dip not allowing the bottom to be revisited at all. Bank of Japan is expected to continue intervening until it is forced to change its interest policies. Unfortunately for Japan with its 238 Debt to GDP ratio, higher interest rates may be extremely painful, so it will attempt to solve its large problems with a small plaster and hope for the best. In the meanwhile, Japanese people will pay a large and increasing sum for the imports that used to be cheap. I think this is a lesson for countries that did not board a debt spiral. Don't! All debts have to be paid including the state debt. But with states, the due date may be postponed till future generations. These future generations did not approve any loans to spend on populist policies, so indebting your country is, in my opinion, a theft from future generations. As individual traders, we didn't create these troubles for Japan and can't stop them either, so we may as well take some profits. The first interventions knocked me out of my fresh long positions, but I used the other as an entry opportunity and boarded soon after the low was created. Even if it turns out unsuccessful, I think it is worth a potential upside potential. It is hard to predict the next levels of the intervention will take place from. Miyamoto Musashi, one of the greatest swordsmen of Japan, once said that in battle, you may do the same thing once, twice, but never three times. Hence, none of the similarities may be relevant. But it is central bankers with tied-up hands we are dealing with, so I suggest looking for some of the mentioned parameters. Namely - a pinbar, round levels such as 155, 160, 17th Thursday, 18th Friday, and the following week, and bottoms in the aftermath. Good luck! Long live Sauron!
Education
by OrcChieftain
USD/JPY breaches 150USD/JPY is almost unchanged today but hit a milestone in the Asian session as it briefly darted above the 150 line, which has psychological significance. This marked the yen's lowest level since August 1990 as the currency continues to slide. The yen hasn't recorded a winning session since October 4th and has plunged about 600 points during this period. Later today, Japan releases Core CPI for September, which is expected to rise to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in August. The Bank of Japan holds its policy meeting next week, but it seems unlikely that it will change its ultra-loose policy. The yen is sinking and inflation is above the Bank's 2% target, but the central bank is fixated on continuing to provide massive stimulus in order to support the weak economy. Earlier today, Japan's 10-year government bonds breached the 0.25% cap which the BoJ has fiercely defended, rising as high as 0.264%. The BoJ has responded with an emergency bond-buying package in order to bring yields back below 0.25%. With the BoJ defending its policy and ignoring the yen's descent, the ball is in the court of the Ministry of Finance (MoF). The MoF dramatically intervened in late September to prop up the yen after it fell below 145, but the move did little more than slow the yen's descent for a few days. Another intervention is possible, but it would have to be on a larger scale to have any substantial effect on the exchange rate. Finance Minister Suzuki has warned that the government would "properly respond" in the currency markets, but increasingly, the verbal bullets out of Tokyo are being viewed as blanks. With the Federal Reserve showing no signs of easing up on oversize rate hikes, the yen remains at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential, which continues to widen. The yen's prolonged downturn looks set to continue, with the currency likely to hit new lows. USD/JPY is testing support at 149.81. Below, there is support at 149.09 There is resistance at 150.04 and 151.32
by OANDA
1
The If, When, How of the BoJ interventionAs the Yen continues to weaken, the market consensus is that the BoJ is most likely to intervene when the price hits the round number level of 150. Understanding the previous time the BoJ intervened (non stealth) on 22nd September 2022, there are a few learning points to note: - The market consensus price level then was 145. However, the BoJ intervened only when the USDJPY climbed to reach 145.90. ( Noteworthy : A hard and fast number probably isn't what the BoJ is paying attention to, OR market consensus is generally wrong) - The BoJ is deemed to have intervened (stealth) twice more since the 22nd September 2022 (13th & 18th October). But these saw lesser price volatility and were quickly and easily reversed. ( Noteworthy : Stealth intervention doesn't seem to work well) - The BoJ intervention on 22nd September was after the BoJ policy report and the actions were announced by the BoJ. ( Noteworthy : The next BoJ policy report is soon! On the 28th October) How to prepare and take advantage of a BoJ intervention? - Utilise a sell stop pending order. - Judging from the previous intervention which had more than 500pip move and almost no whipsaw; you could apply the pending order below the round number level (in this case, below 149) - And if the price continues to climb, just shift the order up accordingly. - However, always ensure that you have a StopLoss: approximately 45 pips and a TakeProfit: of at least 200 pips which would allow you to have a very good R:R.
by JinDao_Tai
5
USDJPY SellDear Traders, Many of us have been stopped by the strong uptrend of UJ. This is a counter trend idea. The Red area is Monthly Supply Zone since years ago. The fact that the prace is barely above in the 4H doesn't mean that it is now a demand zone. It has to be tested multiple times in order to be categorised as support. The pair needs breath to be corrected and the market cycles indicates overbought conditions with TDI giving us bearish divergence comparing to Price action. Maybe the big players are getting ready to close their profits. So, I count on a nice pullback with 4 potential profit levels. Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
1
USD/JPY breaks above 149USD/JPY has edged higher today and is currently trading at 149.17. The yen has fallen for eight straight sessions, losing 500 points in that time. The yen continues to set new 24-year-old lows as the dollar/yen has pushed above the 149 line. This is a higher level than when the government intervened last month, which marked the first intervention since 1998. Officials have reacted to the yen's latest slide with familiar verbal rhetoric. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe has said that the yen's recent fluctuations were "clearly too rapid and too one-sided". Wakatabe added that there was no contradiction between currency intervention to prop up the yen and the BoJ's ultra-low interest rate policy, which has been the driver of the yen's poor performance this year. Prime Minister Kishida said on Saturday that the BoJ would have to maintain policy until wages rose, and the BoJ has not shown any signs of rethinking its policy, even with the yen sliding and inflation remaining above the central bank's target of 2%. Japan's core CPI rose 2.8% in August, the fifth straight month that it has exceeded the 2% level. The key question is whether the government again step in and intervene in the currency markets. The first intervention clearly didn't achieve its desired effect of stabilizing the yen below 145 and Japan's foreign reserves fell by a record amount in September, around 2.8 trillion yen. The game of cat-and-mouse between the government and speculators betting against the yen continues, and another currency intervention could be in the works, but it would likely have to be much larger than the first intervention in order to have a more lasting effect. USD/JPY faces resistance at 150.04 and 151.32 There is support at 148.85 and 147.58
by OANDA
USD/JPY creeping higherUSD/JPY continues to move edge higher and is up 1.6% this week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.67, up 0.25%. The Japanese yen is once again on a downswing, after hugging the key 145 line. The dramatic intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) in September stemmed the yen's bleeding, but this move by Tokyo appears to have had a very short shelf-life, as the yen fall to new 24-year lows. The burning question is with the yen currently lower than when the MOF stepped in, will it again intervene to prop up the Japanese currency? The first intervention clearly didn't achieve its desired effect of stabilizing the yen below 145 and Japan's foreign reserves fell by a record amount in September, around 2.8 trillion yen. The game of cat-and-mouse between the MOF and speculators betting against the yen continues, and another currency intervention could be in the works, but it would likely have to be much larger than the first intervention. The MOF could try to send a stronger warning to the markets, but it's questionable whether unilateral action by Japan will be enough to change the yen's downtrend. The Bank of Japan has no intention of capping JGB yields and with the Fed likely to deliver another oversize rate hike in November, the US/Japan rate differential will continue to widen and likely weigh on the Japanese yen. The US posted another hot inflation report for September. Headline inflation ticked lower to 8.2%, down from 8.3% but above the consensus of 8.1%. Core inflation rose to 6.6%, up from 6.3% and higher than the forecast of 6.5%. Inflation clearly is yet to peak despite monetary policy becoming restrictive, and the inflation data cements expectations for a 75 basis point hike at the November meeting. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 147.50. Above, there is resistance at 148.32 There is support at 147.50 and 146.04
by OANDA
USD/JPY implied volatility rallies ahead of US inflation There are two tell tale signs that an important event is looming; realised volatility has died a quiet death whilst implied volatility has sprung alive. For all FX majors, 1-day implied volatility is currently higher than 1-week implied volatility, which means options traders estimate volatility over the next 24-hours to be greater than the next five days. Today is clearly all about the US inflation report, where another hot print is expected. Core CPI is expected to rise to 6.5% and match its 40-year high set in June, whilst CPI is expected to soften to 8.1% y/y – thanks to lower energy prices which OPEC are doing their best to support. With markets fully braced for another hot CPI – which will no doubt prompt a bullish response for the dollar if true, there is little talk of it missing expectations. And that could arguably prompt a more volatile response should it come in slightly softer. And speaking of volatility, implied vols for forex are screaming higher whilst USD/JPY trades within a miniscule range around its 24-year high. USD/JPY remains within a strong uptrend on the 1-hour chart, and trades within a tight consolidation just off its 24-year high. There’s been little in the way of jawboning from the MOF since prices broke above the previous intervention high, and the BOJ’s Kuroda has once again given a weak yen the thumbs-up – so long as its demise is not too volatile. A break above 147 confirms a bull-flag breakout and assumes trend continuation toward the 147..65 high – but given the historical significance of this level, it could prompt a shakeout has traders book profits or even fade the move. Should prices move initially lower then bulls could consider dips, but if CPI is to come in softer than expected then bears would likely drive this pair much lower.
Long
by CityIndex
2
USD/JPY closes above 145 - NFP now in focusUSD/JPY finally closed above 145 for the first time in 24 years. Given we saw the MOF (Ministry of Finance) intervene around 145.9 then the potential for the BOJ or MOF to jawbone (if not intervene) may be high. However, traders remain aware that it will take a coordinated intervention to turn this trend around, which is why prices simply drifted back to the highs when the MOF intervened in September. And until we see any sort of intervention, price action remains king. Take note that the MOF last intervened around 145.90, so maret may become twitchy the closer we get to that level. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has formed on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart, which projects a target around 146.2. With the dollar looking strong ahead of today's NFP report, perhaps we'll see another leg higher ahead of the key Nonfarm report. The trend remains bullish and we would consider bullish setups above the broken neckline, with the initial target being the highs around 145.35 and the daily R1 pivot.
Long
by CityIndex
$JPY: BOJ - Let's challenge you!BOJ - Let's challenge you! Intervening in there currency was a perfect technical set-up as well but as I started in my previous posts, we are going to re-rest the highs as we are, and we could perhaps go further if we break above that spike high of 146 area. However, we could get a fake break to either direction that's where you should be careful. Technically we have a great technical set-up once again! Formation: Triangle Bears: A break below 143 half handle we could head down to 142 half areas. Bull: A break above 146 areas we could ahead above to 146 three-quarter areas. Fundamentally: BOJ just like BOE followed and ECB are doing in having to intervene due to higher DXY - print money despite high inflation, in order to support their sovereign bond markets. BOJ intervening is being tested highly! Key tip: Be careful of fake break outs and follow your own trade plan Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
3