USOIL: Quite The Slippery SlopeSpent all day running through the USOIL market structure to try and figure out what's next to happen for the instrument. With a lot of help from the homies from the USOIL Chat Room, I decided on this as a possible path for the beginning of the fall for USOIL.
Next week's start is unwritten however, I believe the push up in price action will find tremendous resistance at $54.72. After failing to pass this level, USOIL will once again descend south towards $35. This idea is based on market structure, candlestick structure and tendencies observed during analysis.
Sorry for the lack of technical jargon and fancy indicators. I like to keep it simple.
Blackgold
WTI: Oil traders store crude on tankers at sea. Again!Hi Guys,
what happens when some of the world’s biggest oil traders seek to store crude on tankers at sea?
The play is to seek to take advantage of the crash in crude prices and make a profit down the line.
It happened in 2009 and in 2015 as reported by Reuters back then in this article: www.reuters.com
Today Bloomberg reported that the same play is happening again.
How will price unfold this time?
If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
Oil about to get bullish long termWTI is hovering above linear support on $48.92 (approx), and in this case, the trending support line (the green dotted line) traverses linear support indicating that we should prepare to go long.
Stochastic shows an indication for a preparation of strength in price rise.
Look for an entry reason around linear support of $48.92 approx to buy WTI long term on the daily chart or 4 hour chart.
Enjoy your trading week & best wishes for success.
All comments welcome.
US OIL WEEKLY CHART - price heading for reversalWe are coming down nicely onto an upward support line. Therefore:
A) Price could keep falling and breakdown towards 42.30 as bearishness & coronavirus fears grips crude
OR
B) Price reversal where bulls look likely to buy back into the market is at about 49.19 and buyers could take it up to $63 approx, despite brinkmanship & health fears. Maybe in time price will arrive at $74 or higher, but that is way ahead in the future to call.
Personally, I favour outcome B to $63. Just look for an entry reason to go with 'B'.
Risk/Reward is bang on Reward 2/1 Risk
Have a great Wednesday traders, and much success!
All comments welcome.
WTI Oil: Impact of SARS 2002/2003Hi Guys,
just some infos: WTI dropped $15 when the World Health Organization issued a Global Alert iro SARS on March 12, 2003.
en.wikipedia.org
nCoV2019 was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019
What are your thoughts?
If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
Oil: “Don’t try to catch a falling knife”Hi Guys,
January did not start bad with prices rising and peaking with Operation Martyr Soleimani. Despite this, all gains made in 45 days were lost quickly in 20 days thanks to coronavirus and worries over economic growth and oil demand.
Since my last idea on WTI posted on Oct.7, black gold moved from $52 to $65 in approx. 45 days.
The peak at $65 was reached when tensions between US and Iran escalated following the killing of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan.3 and Iran hitting back with "Operation Martyr Soleimani".
Tensions between US and Iran de-escalated since and now we are back again at same level of 1-2-3 which provided support at $52 thanks also to spreading of coronavirus.
Will this level of previous support at 1-2-3 ($52) hold the pressure of this new virus? We don't know. All we know is that next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5 but they are trying already to stop the bleeding as this article from Reuters shows.
www.reuters.com
“Don’t try to catch a falling knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff.
The following idea "The Cone" was posted on May 1 and it was structured on a Monthly chart.
For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.
If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
USOIL (Gravy Train)Rough sketch but you get the picture. I'm fairly new to trading so I'm not sure of all the fancy wave names and the technical nomenclature but this is what the chart is saying to me. I'm just listening to what its saying (or moreso what I see). It's damn a near flip flop of how the directional trend got started.
Lets eat. Amen.
USOIL ProjectionsI'm looking for USOIL to soon drop down to the $52.10 area to finish out the descending wedge and also test the bottom of the overall trend line . Look out for a spike up to retest the $59.90 price point afterwards. If the price point fails to pass this point, I'm expecting a drop back to $52.10, maybe lower. If price surpasses the $59.90 mark, I expect we'll see it hit $73.00. USOIL has not recorded a new higher-high since August 18. Possible trend reversal (down) approaching.
WTI: Anatomy of a short term investmentHi Guys,
this is an attempt to detail my process for finding profitable trading opportunities in accordance with my small capital.
It will be an on-going task and I am not yet sure how to structure it. I will start with a post and try to follow it up, All likes, comments, suggestions & reccomendations are very much welcome.
For example, by looking at the above chart, daily, I note that price is finding support and may be forming a triple bottom at $51 level.
My first impression is that it may be pulling back from 3 towards the MAs.
Considering that current price is $53 and MAs are respectively at $55,63 (red) and $56,14 (blue) my view is that the move may generate between $2.500 and $3.000 with 1 contract of CL in few days.
The divergence of RSI with price supports the possibility for a bounce towards MAs.
But what if price is pushed further down?
If I place a stop on the red horizontal line at $50,97 and enter at $53 I need to consider a loss of $2.300. Am I prepared to accept such loss considering the risks involved? The answer is NO.
So, in order to profit from this opportunity I have to work on my positioning by searching in shorter timeframe charts.
This work takes time and is intended for spotting a profitable opportunity with little risk involved. For the time being the idea is up towards the MAs but the idea may change depending on what emerge in shorter timeframe charts.
For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Oil is in really important price.Crude OIL is right now in a really important area. Fundamentally, Opec is currently made a statement of cutting the supply side, but the world economic slowdown is suspected by some. Due to that oil price is not really spiking up in price.
Technically, OIl is right now really important and interesting price area. $57.60 per barrel was previously strong support and resistance. And, if you can see from my chart the resistance line is broken and now retesting it. Also, there is a big time-frame strong support line can be seen from the bullish view. As long as $57.60 hold I am bullish.
Repeat The History!!!!! Simple & Clear! Repeat The History!!!!! Simple & Clear!
In Trading often old supports and resistances are used for trading.. And so is the case with my this setup.... Prices fallen exactly from old highs and going exactly to same lows it made last time.. (plz. check left of chart and red horizontal lines)
Buy limit: 57.5
Stop Out: 53
Take Profit: As per your appetite :)
BLACK GOLD Could Slump To 55.00 If the CHANNEL Breaks!The main chart shows the daily timeframe perspective of the black gold (WTI) in which it can be seen that the price has been confined in a channel respected on multiple occasions! The red horizontal lines represent the nearby support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Technically should the channel break (the daily candle closing convincingly below the daily 50 EMA and the channel) we could see the price target the next support in sight at 55.00 level.
However have a look at the attached image above, where the price action is based on the weekly TF. Often, the 50 EMA act as a dynamic support and resistance. Here we see the weekly 50 EMA which could potentially prevent the price hitting the 55.00 level. So for this trade scenario to be valid we not only need to see the channel and the daily 50 EMA break but also the weekly candle closing below the weekly 50 EMA!
Should all this criteria meet we will wait for the price to retrace slightly before making a SHORT entry to target 55.00 level
Fundamental factors for the black gold are mixed in my perspective. Many countries are trying their best to limit their output but on the flip side with the trade war fears, the global slowdown would likely affect the crude's demands. So in a nutshell until a trade deal is reached we could see the WTI slip to 55.00 before it starts to rebound again higher in the future.
This just represents my analysis of this pair, shall the trade criteria meet in the future i will post the details in a new post.
USOIL Falling WedgeUSOIL seems to be in a falling wedge.
This pattern seems to be formed but not ready to break yet, think the black gold will drop a little more before make some gains.
Will update later on if this wedge is holding or broke, if it closes in like expected this could be a good trade opportunity.
Thanks for reading and I would appreciate some feedback!
Crude Oil Fib LevelLast week Crude Oil sentiment was a bearish one. Looking at the chart, we can expect a continuation of bearish sentiment going into next week. Perhaps on the latter part of the week, we could reach demand level; Therefore we expect price to push back to $73 in the following week.
Have a great weekend, folks!
Cheers!
BlackGold Has Me Excited!! :D Hello Traders!
Oil has me excited now because patterns are becoming very clear, I have bee waiting on this pattern formation for months!!!
Anyway lets get to the nitty and gritty. What we have here is a Libra pattern, courtesy of Jack AKA tntsunrise as is his TV name. Encourage all to follow him, Great trader. currently top on TV.
I learned this trading pattern off of him and it has proved to stand the test of time over and over for many of my trade setups as well as many of his.(I will tag a few results of previous trades with libra patterns.
What makes this special is it is perfectly aligned with my 1.27 Ext. giving me a very good entry for my pattern completion zone.
also, we can trade some short contracts on the way down to that extension since we have a small correction in price. Obviously, who wouldnt like to grow their account to be able to drop heavier contracts on the Oil buy without over risking?!!
good chance of Oil reaching above $100 a barrel. if anyone gets in on this and hold to 100, HUGE profit. anyway, on a side note, save up for gas money America cause we may be going back up to $3-$4 /gal :P
BTW, UKOil will be doing something similar as well, but I dont think I gotta publish this idea twice to such a smart group of traders :)
Libra examples:
NZDUSD is out of date now but I still remember that trade til this day. Very profitable day for me :)
Copper was Phenomenal
GBPUSD is a kinda ugly chart since It was only my first yr trading but still great example of the Libra. has 2 trades in one that hit targets. Libra and an ABCD pattern
Also a Libra
And as icing on the cake, My Oil chart indicating my forever wait
US Oil - 1W - Nailed our Oil Call, where to now?If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment!
Underlying: USOIL
Time frame: 1W
What Has Happened So Far:
Last week I posted a chart on the weekly time frame talking about the potential for the price to still increase in oil. The reason behind that was that the centre line of the Bollinger Band had flattened out and could act as support. Adding in the mix, the EMA's on the MACD were still crossing the centre line which tends to be a bullish momentum play.
What am I Looking to Happen:
As the two EMA's on the MACD are STILL crossing over the centre line it is still a bullish play and I expect price to keep rising until we hit some form of resistance. The first resistance is going to be the upper Bollinger Band. The second level will be the pink trading zone which lines up with previous support and resistance. From there you can look at the 50 and 200 Moving Average as the next levels.
Target Profit: 53.50
Stop Loss: NA
If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment!
Good SHORT READYOkay 1hr fib has been retraced to the 61.8%, At the current time of publishing stochastics oversold on the 15 minute, overbought on the one hour. This could hold at $44.72 and go lower but we do have a channel support half way into the channel. Waiting for volume to show the direction of the market.