BTC Let's wait for the breakout at 64-65k range. LOOKING GOOD !First of all, I want to be very clear that all the checkmarks are the predictions we have been making over these past few months. Each checkmark is a confirmation that the price moved on our side.
To verify this, you can visit my Trading View page and check my analysis history, which I’ve shared with you every weekend.
Now, let's get into the Bitcoin analysis:
If we look at the overall structure of BTC, it is simply a descending range, but if we zoom in, the inefficiency zone has always been an important trigger for Bitcoin's structure, even when bearish. What I mean is that every time it touches the inefficiency zone, Bitcoin surges upward strongly. If you look closely, the largest bullish candles appear in the inefficiency zone. It is also where a head-and-shoulders pattern was formed, but when it touched a demand zone, the price shot up like foam, just as we had predicted.
It’s simple... If we can see the overall structure, we have a very important 'KEY ENTRY POINT' (KEP) on the bottom left side to consider, and that same 'KEP' is the area Bitcoin has been respecting frequently.
So, we can conclude in this analysis that, as Bitcoin has respected the entire bearish sequence of our trend channel 1, 2, 3, and 4, point #5 was key for retesting our 'KEP' at position #6 and then surging strongly to the inefficiency zone, resulting in a small natural pullback to accelerate the price and almost hit our resistance point #7.
But what will happen now?
NOTE: If there’s no breakout, there’s no party!
I’ll present you with two scenarios (Bearish and Bullish) that Bitcoin may follow this week:
Bearish Scenario: If there is no breakout, there’s no party! The price will simply validate our point #7, reject it, and continue the bearish sequence of the channel. We can distinguish this based on the volume and the strength of the candle (keep a close eye on that).
Bullish Scenario: The price is about to validate point #7. If starting on Monday, we begin to see strong bullish volumes in Bitcoin, you can be certain that Bitcoin will break the channel. Consequently, we could see a new high after the breakout, followed by a pullback that returns to what was the channel's resistance (now support), and from there, a structural breakout or a new high.
I call this pattern N3.
The simple fact that the price breaks out and the full candle is outside of my channel, I consider it a genuine breakout.
So let’s hope it happens this week.
Regards, and thanks for supporting my analysis!"
Bitcoinprediction
THE $BTC CYCLE LOW MIGHT BE IN ACCORDING TO FIBONACCI!CRYPTOCAP:BTC successfully retested the Fib Golden Pocket on the monthly, which could signify the end of the retracement in Bitcoin's price before breaking the All-Time-Highs. What do you think? Do we make a new ATH from here or does BTC end up making a lower low? Everything is possible in Crypto..
Bitcoin's Roadmap to $100,000: Key Levels and TimelinesAlright folks, here's my outlook on Bitcoin's path to $100,000. Based on the current technical setup, if Bitcoin can stay within the Pitchfork green zone, we could see it hitting $100,000 as early as 2025. However, if it lingers in the Pitchfork red zone, we're more likely to see $100,000 by 2026.
Now, diving deeper into the analysis, my custom indicator has consistently tracked overbought conditions and crossovers. The last significant overbought cross occurred on March 25, 2024, and if history repeats itself, we can expect a similar pattern that took 840 days to unfold before the next major move. Following this timeline from the most recent cross, we’re looking at about August 2026 for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100,000.
For those expecting Bitcoin to hit $100,000 in 2025, it’s still possible but only if Bitcoin can maintain its position in the Pitchfork green zone. However, if it dips into the red zone, we’re more likely to see that milestone hit in 2026. This is not speculation this is what the chart and my indicator, which I’ve developed and relied on, are clearly showing.
This indicator hasn't let me down yet, and it's based on a solid pattern of how the market moves over time. This is a weekly chart, giving us a longer-term perspective on Bitcoin’s potential to reach $100,000.
So, stay informed and grounded in the data. Don’t be misled by others making claims without analysis to back it up this chart provides a clear roadmap to when we can realistically expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) LONG Trade Setup Targets + SL UPDATEDBitcoin (BTCUSD) LONG Trade Setup Targets
Got a clear LONG trade entry at $59,059
Stop Loss at: $58,250
Trailing Stop Loss at: $59,200
Total TP1, TP2, and TP3 done!
Almost touched the TP4 target.
Overall a good LONG trade on the 4h time frame.
I always trade crypto in the 4H time frame, it is my personal preference. Gives me more peace of mind.
Bullish Bitcoin/Crypto and Bearish DXY Analysis
In this scenario, a bearish DXY aligns with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which has historically shown an inverse correlation. Let's break down the analysis based on this perspective:
1. Bearish DXY Outlook
Support Breakdown Risk: The DXY is currently sitting at the strong support zone between 100-102 (blue area). However, if the U.S. Dollar Index fails to hold this support and breaks downward, the next key level of support lies around 98, as indicated by the descending yellow diagonal arrow. A breakdown below 100 could accelerate the DXY's decline, signaling a bearish trend.
Lower Highs and Potential Reversal: The overall trend shows the DXY making lower highs, and the potential move downward suggests weakening dollar strength, which is bearish for the DXY.
Timing of Key Breakdown: If the DXY does not hold this support, the next major support line, marked for Mon 07 Oct 24, could come into play, driving the index lower toward 98.
2. Bullish Bitcoin and Crypto Market
Inverse Correlation with DXY: Historically, Bitcoin and the crypto market have an inverse relationship with the DXY. When the U.S. dollar weakens (bearish DXY), capital tends to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Accumulation at Key Levels: As the DXY enters a bearish phase, Bitcoin’s price (blue line) shows strong upward momentum, with the potential for further gains. The green arrows highlight past instances where the DXY’s decline correlated with Bitcoin's strong bullish moves. The same pattern is projected now, with the blue arrow indicating a possible strong bullish leg for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Projection: With the DXY breaking below support and entering a bearish trend, Bitcoin could aim for new highs as investor sentiment shifts away from traditional safe-haven assets (like the U.S. dollar) and into riskier, high-reward assets such as crypto.
Crypto Market Strength: A weakening dollar typically leads to increased interest in alternative assets, such as gold, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. As inflation concerns rise and the dollar loses strength, the crypto market becomes an attractive hedge, especially for institutional investors.
3. Long-Term Projection
Bitcoin’s Upper Trendline: The chart shows a potential continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish rally if the DXY continues its decline. If Bitcoin follows historical trends, breaking through the current resistance levels, we could see significant price appreciation, pushing Bitcoin towards new highs.
Altcoins Surge: As Bitcoin leads the charge, the broader crypto market typically follows. A bearish DXY could spur interest in altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and other crypto sectors, as capital flows into the space looking for high returns amid a weakening U.S. dollar.
Conclusion:
Bearish DXY: If the DXY fails to hold support and moves lower, the U.S. dollar’s decline will be a strong catalyst for a bullish Bitcoin and broader crypto market rally.
Bullish Crypto: This scenario points to a favorable environment for Bitcoin and altcoins, driven by weakening dollar strength and increasing interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class. Expect significant gains in Bitcoin and major crypto assets if the DXY breaks down from its current levels.
More pain before we SoarHere in this chart, I have mapped out the price points to keep an eye on. I like the 53k-55k range and believe it is extremely bullish for us to stay above it but the longer we linger here... the more likely we are to break down. Down would be to 48k support which is not as strong as some may think. I am still keeping an open mind to the possibility of an event where we don't have a normal cycle that rallies into the next year post-cycle but instead a drastic dip back down to reality at 38k - this is also a worst-case scenario and possibly the disbelief phase of the cycle. Or I can always go with my gut and say that we already had a short-lived bull market these past few years.
Sep 19, 2024 Short term bitcoin analysisBitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term, which indicates further development in the same direction. The currency has broken up through resistance at points 61400. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at points 61400. The currency is assessed as technically positive for the short term.
Bitcoin BTC price is preparing for a “crazy” SeptemberIf we compare the stock market drops at August 05 and September 03, we can say that the crypto market is still holding up very well.
But we shouldn't relax, because there are a lot of events coming up in September that will set the tone for the Autumn:
1️⃣ September 6 - data from the labor market. July 5 and August 5 were extremely volatile downward after the data release. Now the market interprets and considers the most important indicator of the health of the US economy to be not inflation but the number of jobs created. Based on this data, on August 5, the market plunged into a not so pleasant weekend when CRYPTOCAP:BTC went below $50K.
2️⃣11 September - publication of the CPI and inflation data in the United States.
3️⃣18 September - the results of the two-day Fed meeting, the announcement of a rate cut. It's elegant that this day is also a full moon, conspiracy theorists are on the base)
4️⃣20 September - a hat trick - a day when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day. This happens only four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, which can lead to a sharp increase in trading volume and volatility.
🍿 Preparing popcorn and soothing valerian)
And if you look closely, you can see how beautifully OKX:BTCUSDT price moves through white dynamic fibo channels, from border to border.
So use this information to your advantage, with profit!)
Sep 18, 2024 Short term bitcoin analysis Bitcoin has broken the falling trend channel in the short term and reacted strongly up. For the time being, it is difficult to say anything about the future trend direction. The currency is approacing resistance at 61400 points, which may give a negative reaction. However, a break upwards through 61400 points will be a positive signal. The currency is assessed as technically slightly negative for the short term.
Bitcoin (BTC) analysis | What will be the next move?Looking at the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, we see upward fluctuations from the price of $52,000 to the price of $60,000. Bitcoin has now reached its dynamic range and is engaged with this resistance zone.
As can be seen in the chart image, Bitcoin is expected to face an increase in supply from the specified resistance range at the price of $62000-$63000 and make a corrective movement towards the specified support areas and levels.
What do you think? I would be happy to hear your opinion
Bitcoin September 17th 20241. Price Action (Candlesticks):
Current Price: The price is hovering around $60,141.67, as indicated by the highlighted value.
Recent Trend: The candlesticks suggest that Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for the past few weeks. The price seems to be bouncing between support at around $52,500 and resistance at $66,000.
Downward Correction: After hitting the recent high around $66,000, a correction seems to have taken place, as indicated by multiple bearish candles. However, Bitcoin hasn't broken down into lower support levels, suggesting a consolidation phase.
2. Moving Averages (MAs):
White Line: The white line appears to be a long-term moving average (likely a 200-week moving average), which is far above the current price. This implies that Bitcoin's price is still significantly below its all-time highs and could indicate a potential upward target if a bullish trend resumes.
Yellow Line: The yellow line could be a shorter moving average (possibly 50-week), which is closer to the current price and appears to be acting as resistance in recent weeks.
Interaction with MAs: The current price is struggling to stay above the shorter MA (yellow), which suggests that Bitcoin may face more selling pressure if it fails to hold support above it.
3. Indicators:
MACD/RSI at the Bottom: The red and green indicator at the bottom seems to be either an RSI (Relative Strength Index) or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
The red shaded area indicates a bearish trend, while the green shows a bullish trend. Since the red is dominant and the indicator is trending downward, this points to a period of bearish momentum.
The RSI, if that's what the indicator represents, looks to be below the midpoint (around 50), suggesting that Bitcoin is not in overbought territory, but also not deeply oversold. It signals weak momentum in the recent period.
4. Support and Resistance:
Support: There is solid support around the $52,500 level, as seen in previous price action where Bitcoin bounced several times.
Resistance: The $66,000 level seems to be a significant resistance, as price has failed to close above it in recent weeks.
Breakout/Breakdown Potential: If the price breaks below $52,500, we could see a deeper correction, potentially testing lower support levels (around $40,000 or even lower). Conversely, if it breaks above $66,000 with strong volume, Bitcoin could head toward $74,000 or beyond.
5. Volume:
The volume data is not visible in this screenshot, but low volume during this consolidation phase would indicate indecision or a lack of strong buying interest, while increasing volume on upward moves would signal potential breakouts.
6. Longer-Term Outlook:
The long-term moving average (white line) remains above the current price, indicating that Bitcoin's overall long-term trend is still upward, even though there's short- to medium-term bearish pressure.
If Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 range and break the $66,000 resistance, it could retest the highs and continue its uptrend. However, failing to do so might signal a longer consolidation period or even a deeper correction.
Summary:
Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after a recent correction, with key support at $52,500 and resistance at $66,000.
Momentum indicators suggest the trend is currently weak and slightly bearish.
A breakout above $66,000 could lead to a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $52,500 would signal further bearish action.
This chart presents a critical moment for Bitcoin, where the market is waiting for a decisive move in either direction.
I am ALL IN BITCOIN BTCUSDTSignal:
Green on 1st Ribbon for the second time
Green on Background Ribbons
High Probability to see New High of all time, so I have invested all of available fund - I am ALL IN.
As expected on my last post - 1ST signal, #BTCUSDT has done the 1st wave, now the 2nd signal appears.
DISCLAIMER
This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing NOR trading advice.
Please make your own decisions and be responsible for your own investing and trading Activities.
Sep 17, 2024 Short term bitcoin analysis Bitcoin has broken the falling trend channel in the short term and reacted strongly up. For the time being, it is difficult to say anything about the future trend direction. The currency is testing support at points 58000. This could give a positive reaction, but a downward breakthrough of points 58000 means a negative signal. The currency is assessed as technically neutral for the short term.
BTC Bitcoin In-Depth Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 Navigating Key Market Levels with Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) has broken market structure to the upside. On both the daily and 4-hour charts, we see a pullback into equilibrium, offering a potential buying opportunity. In this video, we dive into market structure, price action, and, most importantly, the trend. We also discuss how smart money has been targeting stop losses recently. The goal is to set up a trade that minimizes the risk of a stop run without compromising our risk-to-reward ratio.
*Disclaimer: The information shared in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.* 📊✅
Bitcoin Breaks $60k: How Rising Global Liquidity is Fueling the Good Morning Crypto Friends and Investors,
It's an exciting time in the market—Bitcoin (BTC) is back over $60k and has successfully reclaimed the 200-day EMA. The price is following the bar pattern we discussed last time, maintaining a steady trajectory for continued upward momentum through the end of the year, especially with global liquidity levels on the rise, as illustrated in the chart below.
The global liquidity trend is visible on both daily and weekly charts, with indicators like the Hull Suite, Donchian, and the Rate of Change (ROC) all trending upward.
What Typically Happens When Global Liquidity Rises?
Historically, when global liquidity rises, it often sparks upward trends in financial markets, particularly in assets such as stocks, commodities, and real estate. Increased liquidity means more capital is available, and central banks or financial institutions may inject funds into the economy, often by lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing (QE).
Key Market Trends Associated with Rising Liquidity:
- Asset Price Inflation : As liquidity increases, investors typically move capital into higher-yielding assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or real estate. This capital influx drives up the prices of these assets, sometimes creating asset bubbles.
- Lower Interest Rates: Central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity, making borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers. Lower rates also make bonds and other fixed-income assets less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets like equities. Globally, this trend is already in motion, and it's anticipated that on September 18th, the U.S. Central Bank will follow suit with a rate cut, expected to fall between 475-525 basis points (bps).
- Weakening of Currency Value : With more money circulating, currencies can weaken, particularly during aggressive QE periods. As currency values decline, inflation may rise, reducing your purchasing power. I highly recommend reading my article, "Why You Need to Invest," or watching my corresponding YouTube video for more information. Remember, when fiat currencies lose value, hard assets like real estate, Bitcoin, and gold tend to increase in value, so it's wise to plan accordingly.
- Increased Risk Appetite: Rising liquidity and falling interest rates encourage investors to take on more risk, driving up stock market valuations at a rapid pace. If you're looking to capitalize on this risk appetite, platforms like Robinhood and ByBit offer margin accounts that allow you to borrow within your investment portfolio, increasing your exposure to both growth and potential loss. Be cautious when using margin or leverage, as global liquidity is cyclical. Eventually, QE will give way to quantitative tightening (QT), and you could risk losing your gains.
- Commodities Rally: Commodities, such as oil, precious metals, and even Bitcoin, often rise in response to increased liquidity. Investors view these as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation. Bitcoin, with its dual role as both a commodity and a tech-like asset, tends to perform well in both risk-on and risk-off environments. In my opinion, having some Bitcoin in your portfolio is always a good strategy.
Risk Update:
I'll be honest—during the last cycle, I convinced too many people to invest in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin because I, like many others, believed in the supercycle theory and anticipated even higher prices. This time around, I’m taking a more measured approach. As long as prices and indicators support a bullish case, I’ll continue to advise my friends and followers accordingly. However, as we approach the market’s peak, I will be sharing strategies for taking profits. You can read more in my article, "A Strategic Approach to Bitcoin," (substack.com) or watch my YouTube video, “Bitcoin's Next Big Move: My Strategy Revealed!” I’ll revisit this topic when it's more immediately relevant, but for now, fear and greed indices remain borderline fearful—this is the time to buy. A few months from now, the risks will be higher, and potential gains will be smaller.
Indicator Update:
Risk Level: Zero (Bullish)
Puell Multiple: 1 (Bullish)
Mayer Multiple: 2 (Bullish)
Bollinger Bands % (BB%): 0.35 (Bullish)
Hash Ribbon: Still trending higher (Bullish)
In Summary:
Global liquidity is on the rise, rate cuts are looming, and historically, these factors lead to significant earnings potential. Don’t wait for the FOMO to set in—our indicators and projections are tracking well, and there's substantial profit to be made if you act according to your risk tolerance and financial plan. Always consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions, and discuss your strategy to see what aligns best with your long-term goals.
Godspeed, and good fortune.
--Complete article found here: substack.com --
For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all.
#FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOIN
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.