Bitcoindominance
This Time is Not Like the OthersPrevious tops for Bitcoin Dominance in this range have behaved similarly, as has RSI. Each time we topped out, RSI moved higher and higher and then dropped hard. This time RSI has formed a falling wedge, and it looks indecisive.
It could be seen as a bearish divergence, as RSI moves down while price moves up or sideways. However, as RSI has already fallen significantly lower, it has room to spike upward along with price.
I think the likely scenario here, is a move up to 50-54% and then a strong move down. It could make a move down before doing so, but not back to the lower range.
Simple Path Possibilities for BTC DomSuper simple / quick post. Bitcoin dominance had a confirmed double top, and now may or may not confirm a double bottom.
If it does, it will likely move up to resistance and then back down before deciding to break through resistance or support.
Otherwise, it may just lose support
Bitcoin Dominance Likely to Have Peaked for NowHey there!
It seems that Bitcoin dominance has peaked, at least for the time being. A medium-term retracement to 44% in 3-4 months appears likely. While some may view this as the start of alt season, we should consider that increased market volatility may lead to stablecoin dominance rising, which could explain the drop in Bitcoin dominance in a turbulent market scenario.
As always, stay safe and stay liquid.
No Breakout Yet, No Massive Drop EitherBitcoin Dominance looks like it wants to head down to 45-46%. Why?
- We're moving up within a parallel channel on the weekly chart here, good chance we'll see the bottom of it again.
- Our highest weekly high did close above the previous one, but with no wick and not as high as our highest wick. Hard to call that a strong breakout
- Volume isn't here yet to bring it higher & MACD looks like it wants to turn down, while AO may cross soon as well
Conclusion:
- No altseason yet (a mini-recovery could occur though, but they could just as well drain more if BTC drops significantly with another dominance drop)
- No dominating bitcoin move yet
Bitcoin Dominance Elephant/Mammoth in the room The Bitcoin dominance has been doing something seemingly unnatural with the limited information available to us. I find that a lot of people are sleeping on this or just unaware.
First off, this chart is very busy. I don't normally make charts with this many indicators but there is a lot of confliction in the information and I only want to make a single chart of this to follow on. There is are even a few indicators I have deleted for sanities sake.
Secondly, the elephant is that we have basically gone through a bear market in a range with the dominance. What we have known or at least what we think we knew is that in bear markets the dominance of bitcoin goes up. That so far has proven to be false or is it that the bear market isn't over yet? I will explain all of this with my opinion at the bottom with a third option.
THE INDICATORS
On the Monthly chart
50 month MA
CM_Ultimate_MA_MTF
Volume
Down below, from top to bottom
RSI
Vortex (VI)
Traders Dynamic Indicator (TDIGM)
Historical Volatility (HV)
Bitcoin Dominance Oscillator (BTCD_O)
Sentiment Oscillator (ASO)
So, lets start from the top
The CM Ultimate has turned green, the only other time that's happened on this chart has shown an upward dominance move for Bitcoin. The RSI is climbing, the blue vortex has crossed above the pink line that all show a support for this upward dominance move. The sentiment oscillator has closed the gap (Blue vs pink) and looks to make across that would add to the upward move, but, has not crossed as of yet (possibly this month it may).
The conflict or size of the move
The last time dominance went up it was met with very heavy resistance the 50 month MA (yellow line), it finally did break through but did not hold for even one month and broke back down again. This shows us the 50 month is very very strong resistance for now. The question is, will it go above this time around? This is what remains to be seen and what will follow here.
The volatility and traders dynamic could be pointing at small move. We can clearly see the volatility going down as the move is going up. The TDI has been saying a move is coming and has been made but it might already be over, or there is isn't much left in the move. So, it could go to the 50 month and get rejected from there. Why? We can also see the TDI's range is narrowing which coincides with the volatility. Also, along with all this the RSI is showing hidden bearish divergence for 4 years now, that started in 2015, but has it played out fully yet? Again that remains to be seen.
I have zoomed in on the volatility so it can be clearly seen but what is being missed is the giant wedge that it is in. This wedge does eventually end in about 2 years, so it's still aways away.
What I think and what my analysis is.
First off, it's not to be taken as advice.
I think BTC dominance is going up for now. I also think it gets rejected by the 50 month and goes back down for an alt-season and could make a double bottom and hit the lows of 2018 @ 35% or possible even slightly lower for a very short time. It then would go back up substantially.
Keep in mind this could take 2 to 3 years to play out in full or even longer.
The keys in all of this are the 50 month, the Volatility and the volume. We can also see the volume is in a downward trend. A big volume spike could bean early sign of a trend reversal too. Once all this plays out and if the dominance was to go back up the volatility would have to break out of the wedge in a fairly violent way, just as it did when it broke down in 2017/18.
The other option is it just gets more and more stable and less volatile as time goes on and keeps following this trend. I don't think this is likely as a permanent fixture though.
Another hidden key here could be Ethereum. ETH has also closed the gap on BTC during this bear market, so it's another thing I'm looking at and could also be used as an indicator to all this data. I have linked a chart to this analysis in this one called "Is Ethereum going to dethrone the king". Also, I have included is an altcoin lengthening cycles analysis based on XRP.
I do suggest you replicate this chart in multiple ways by breaking down the indicators for cleanliness sake and even adding in the ones I removed listed down bellow.
Removed but still relevant Indicators
Stochastic RSI
Bollinger Bands
MACD
Thank you for looking and please feel free to let me know what you think in the comment section down below.
Stay Blessed
WeAreSat0shi
📈 Bitcoin Dominance Clearly Set To Move Above 53% to 58%At times, charts can be quite difficult to read yet at other times, the end-message can be quite clear.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is giving out a clear message and that is up.
Mid-March, BTCD moves above EMA100 weekly on a major green candle. The action that ensues is what makes the message clear.
For the next month and a half, 6 sessions/candles, BTCD consolidates by going sideways... 100% sideways.
After 6 weeks of consolidation, the index is now moving up.
This is supported by a very strong RSI.
Volume is low, which means that the real, strong action is yet to come.
On a bearish bias/potential, we would see a test and retest of EMA10 and EMA100 as support, instead, bullish consolidation then up.
We can expect additional growth with the next target being MA200 at 53.53%, followed by EMA300 at 57.99%.
Mirror image from the March/May 2021 drop.
First we go down...
Then we go up!
Namaste.
Breakout! Altseason is COMING!We just broke under last buyers volume.
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and it is not uncommon to see rapid fluctuations in prices that can make or break investors' portfolios. One phenomenon that is often observed in the cryptocurrency market is an "altseason." An altseason is a period when the prices of alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," rise significantly in comparison to Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, and there are thousands of altcoins in circulation. Some of the most well-known altcoins include Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. These cryptocurrencies have their own unique features and use cases, and many investors believe that they have significant potential for growth.
The conditions that lead to an altseason are complex and multifaceted. However, there are several factors that are typically associated with an altseason:
Bitcoin dominance drops: Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that is accounted for by Bitcoin. During an altseason, Bitcoin dominance typically drops as investors shift their attention and funds to alternative cryptocurrencies.
Rising demand for altcoins: During an altseason, there is typically an increase in demand for altcoins. This can be due to a variety of factors, such as new use cases, innovative technology, or positive media coverage.
Bullish sentiment: During an altseason, there is typically a bullish sentiment in the market, as investors are optimistic about the potential of altcoins to outperform Bitcoin.
Positive news and developments: Positive news and developments, such as new partnerships, upgrades to existing technology, or regulatory developments that are favorable to cryptocurrencies, can also contribute to an altseason.
Bitcoin's stability: While an altseason is characterized by a drop in Bitcoin dominance, it is also important for Bitcoin to remain relatively stable during this period. If Bitcoin experiences significant price fluctuations, it can disrupt the altcoin market and lead to a decrease in demand for altcoins.
An altseason can be an exciting time for cryptocurrency investors, as it offers the potential for significant profits. However, it is important to keep in mind that altcoins are often more volatile than Bitcoin, and investing in them can be risky. It is crucial to conduct thorough research and due diligence before investing in any cryptocurrency, and to manage risk effectively to protect one's investment.
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A breakout is a term used to describe a sudden and significant price movement in the financial markets. Breakouts occur when the price of an asset, such as a stock, commodity, or currency, moves beyond a key level of resistance or support, typically on high volume. These key levels are often referred to as technical levels, and they can include trendlines, moving averages, or previous highs or lows.
One strategy that traders often use to take advantage of breakouts is called "buying the dip" or "selling the spike." This strategy involves waiting for a breakout to occur, and then entering a position on a pullback or retracement. For example, if a stock breaks out to the upside and then pulls back to retest the breakout level, a trader might enter a long position on the pullback, with a stop loss below the breakout level.
Another strategy that traders use to take advantage of breakouts is called "momentum trading." This strategy involves entering a position as soon as the breakout occurs, with the expectation that the price will continue to move in the direction of the breakout. This strategy can be risky, as the price can sometimes reverse course quickly after a breakout, resulting in losses for the trader.
Overall, breakouts can be exciting and profitable opportunities for traders, but they require a high degree of skill and discipline to navigate successfully. Traders who are able to identify breakouts early on and manage their risk effectively can potentially achieve significant profits in the financial markets.
Altseason 2023 is going to start in coming days. Be ready. Hi dear community and my lovely followers.
I will be in short. I want you to inform that be ready for Altseason 2023 which is going to start in coming days. It will be wild.
As you see Total 2 on weekly log chart has broken the main diagonal resistance/ weekly falling wedge/ and it is going to break pink zone which is one of the strongest horizontal resistance.
As soon as it will be flipped, All altcoins will explode in a crazy way making x5-x10. Bellow you can see also Total 2 weekly regular chart, where Descending triangle was broken and retested successfully. The only thing we need is "flip the main horizontal resistance and the party will start.
Also pay attention to Weekly RSI which has also broken the main diagonal resistance with retest and it is above 50 level, so huge momentum is coming to altcoins market)))
BTW BTCD hit 48% main resistance which is again sign that it will be rejected because of altcoins hard pump.
Pay attention to updates bellow this analysis I'm going to post other charts as well.
Don't forget to like, comment and follow please. I'll appreciate your support.
BTC.D 49% tagged precisely! ...and now we dropTraders,
As stated numerous times previously, I have virtually zero expectations that Bitcoin dominance will exceed anything past 49%. Today we tagged that threshold exactly and now I expect a drop. In accordance with the dominance fall-off, I am expecting Bitcoin to retest the neckline of it's Cup and Handle pattern at HKEX:25 ,200. Though, I seem fairly certain regarding Bitcoin's pullback (and I am), I am less certain about what the altcoin space will do. For this reason, I am currently all in stable until alt direction can be more accurately determined. Stay tuned. If I get the right mix of signals, I will be entering quite a few trades to catch any move up. We are currently on a 16 in a row win streak long. I hope to extend this streak soon.
Best,
Stew
Neckline Breakout on Total2 (Altcoin Market Chart)Traders,
We have a break on out Altcoin Chart but before we get too excited, let's wait and see where today's candle closes. We are hoping for a close today above HKEX:608 billion. Once confirmed, it becomes safer to step on the gas pedal in the altcoin market, though, preferably, we want to see another candle open and close above that neckline tomorrow as well.
Best,
Stew
📈Ready for altcoins to move up?📉CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Hello traders, I hope you have had a profitable week.✋
First, pay attention to the previous analysis of the Bitcoin Dominance Index.👌
The Bitcoin Dominance Index is approaching the important level of 48.48. Despite the possibility of being rejected below this level, if the price of Bitcoin stays at a certain level or grows, the altcoins in the market can experience an upward movement of 20-40%.
Ethereum price targets were identified in a separate analysis.
Please share ideas and leave a comment,
let me know what's your idea.
CrazyS
BTC DOMINANCE Massive alt season about to start?According to the BTC Market Cap Dominance (BTC.D), a huge alt season may be upon us if the Rectangle that has been ranging in since May 2021, breaks to the downside. The pattern is quite similar to April 2014 - June 2016. That was when Bitcoin (orange trend-line) was in a Bear Cycle and on September 2015 it was coming off of it. It appears that we might be where that fractal was around December 2015.
Is investing in alts a good idea here?
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BTC Dominance, Up or Down ? Both good for crypto!As we can see in the above chart BTC dominance is at a crucial point, It is at a resistance which is tested multiple times in last 2 years but failed to break it.
We can expect 2 + 1 scenario based on the above chart.
Scenario A: Bitcoin will pump and Alts will bleed which will result in break of this resistance for Bitcoin dominance. So if you are holding bitcoin you are gonna be very lucky
Scenario B: Bitcoin price will remain the same or see a minor correct but Alts will pump like a bull market. this can result in BTC dominance getting rejected at the resistance.
Scenario C: Both Bitcoin and Altcoins will crash and Bitcoin dominance doesn't matter anymore.
Personally i'm expecting Bitcoin dominance to increase in the upcoming weeks and we can expect the dominance to break-out the resistance in the upcoming month.
Bitcoin price will increase similar to past bull runs and Alts will follow the bitcoin price only after few months when bitcoin starts consolidating.
In a bull run Bitcoin always leads the rally and Alts simply follows it.!
GreenCrypto
BTC Dominance, Altcoin party is coming or not?. BTC.DHello guys, Consider Bitcoin market cap to help identify market movement and the Altcoin season. You can monitor these two points which will cause the market to turn towards altcoins as dominance declines.
Good luck.
If its useful please like it as a support and follow me for next analysis :)
.
Salam doostan aziz, chart arzesh bazar bitcoin hast ke be zire moghavemat khod reside. in chart ro baraye tashkhise harkat bazar va alt season dar nazar begirid. ba nozooli va renj moondan in ravand, baese enteghal poole be altcoin ha mishe va roshd haye ziyad. moafagh bashid.
like va follow faramoosh nashe :)
📈 Bitcoin Dominance (Update by request)This is a reply I gave to @cryptoninja1998 in a comment, his question was the following:
" What are your thoughts on BTC dominance and the possibility of it turning back down (rejecting off 50% level), thus giving a push to the altcoins? "
First, I wouldn't focus too much on the BTC Dominance chart to look for a certain type of action on the "Altcoins" side.
The Altcoins is a set of Cryptocurrencies that ranges in the tens of thousands, and the "Altcoins" can grow in one way or the other while BTC Dominance does whatever it does.
The Altcoins are set to grow based on the normal market behavior, that is, if Bitcoin is really strong, everything stops and Bitcoin moves forward.
When Bitcoin takes a break the Altcoins move forward.
The Altcoins vs Tether pairs tend to move together with Bitcoin in groups with a slight delay.
Maybe the big ones move together with Bitcoin now while the others either consolidate or go into correction mode.
In another occasion the mid-sized ones move with Bitcoin and in yet another occasion the smaller ones.
Money enters the market through Bitcoin and from Bitcoin it flows to the Altcoins.
Since the market cycle is always changing/evolving to the next phase, the next time Bitcoin goes up, how it affects the Altcoins is not the same as when it happened in January this year or for example, it is also difference then when it happened back in July/August 2022.
This time when Bitcoin takes its break the Altcoins can grow really strong and recover weeks and sometimes months of correction in just a few days.
Those consolidating move ahead.
I would focus on each chart individually and just use the relation between the indexes and my desired pairs for the overall market view but not to know when to expect a certain move.
The truth is that they are just too many Altcoins to speak in general at this point.
The way that BTC.D affects Cardano, Floki, Namecoin, DigiByte, Monero, Stellar or Contentos is so different that we have to look at each one of these apart.
Let me know if that answers your question.
Namaste.