BTC.D - Is the Alt Season Over?Bitcoin Dominance is Increasing. This statement is echoing in the crypto space now. But what is it and is the Alt Season Over?
Bitcoin Dominance is the relative market capitalization, i.e. comparing the total supply of circulating tokens multiplied by the current price against the price of fifteen cryptocurrencies.
What is Alt Season?
If 75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days) it is Altcoin Season.
Is it an Altcoin Month?
If 75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last 30 days it is Altcoin Month.
In the above chart three (3) things can be clearly identified:
1. BTC Dominance is Increasing.
2. BTC Volumes are Decreasing
3. Inverse Price Action against ETH and LTC (strong correlation!!)
What can we extrapolate?
If, the BTC Dominance keeps increasing the prices of AltCoins will follow a downward trajectory.
What can impact Bitcoin Dominance?
BTC volumes need to hike up for BTC to decrease.
Is the Alt Season Over?
NO, we are still in Alt Season.
It is Altcoin Month?
NO, it's BTC month.
Altcoins are losing the battle but, in the end, they will Win the War!!
Keeping a close eye on BTC volumes is imperative. The moment we see a breakout in volumes from the average trend line BTC.D will start to decline.
Do share your comments, feedback, and opinion.
Bitcoindominance
BTC Dominance about to fall??!!Bitcoins dominance since shooting up during our last correction has slowly going sideways and slightly down which has formed this pennant, we have held perfectly inside this pattern and we are now approaching the Apex point or the end, our close tonight for BTC dominance will tell us quite a bit, my thoughts are we are going to break below the end of the pennant and keep our long term downtrend going, if this does play out Bitcoin will likely start to move up maybe not very far but altcoins will really begin to fly. There's a good chance we come back down to the 40% level like we saw early may and then after that i wouldn't be surprised to see 35% BTC dominance. The MACD is right on the verge of fully flipping bearish and could come down pretty hard once we see that confirmation. The histogram is almost right on that midway line which makes me believe some red bars are coming. Also EMA ribbons are pressing down heavy on our candles with lots of bearish momentum, there's lots of separation in the bands so i doubt we see a full reversal anytime soon, remember lower BTC dominance means incredible altcoin gains and most of the time smaller BTC gains. Either way good for the market after struggling recently i expect some green days ahead! NFA just my opinion
BTC.Dominance (Retest 40 Level?)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BTC.Dominance
-Bitcoin Dominance chart is rejected by the 50D MA last May 23rd
-As of now, the price level keeps decreasing, and respecting this channel
-This descending channel is technically bullish
-If the price level breaks to the upside, the Altcoin space may suffer
-Currently, It is facing rejection at 0.5 Fib and trendline resistance
-There is a potential retest of the previous swing low at 39.6 level
-If we will see a strong bounce from that support level
-Be cautious about your altcoin positions especially if using leverage
-But if the swing low of support failed
-Expect a good run for the altcoins in the coming weeks
-For now, everyone is waiting for a good market direction
-Bitcoin on the other hand still consolidating around 37k dollars
-I'm expecting BTC to move sideways in the coming days
-With a potential 5%-10% volatility movement
-So please manage your risk and don't over leverage
-Weekend is coming, stay healthy and safe!
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Bitcoin dominance set to drop further. BTC.DWe are speculating that bitcoin dominance could quite easily drop below 40%. This is unprecedented and potentially disruptive for the crypto space. Alternatively, this could prove to bring profits in the altcoin/DEFI space as well. In any case, the fractals are clear on this one - we are going down.
Fibonacci goals are in green and invalidation is in red. Not financial advice - do your own research.
BITCOIN - FALL TO $35K AND RISE TO $58K OR FALL TO $30K AND $20KRight here is my idea on Bitcoin. As we all know we have an head and shoulder pattern on this chart which predicts a fall and an inverse head and shoulder pattern on this same chart which predicts a bullish trend.
So for the head and shoulder pattern to work, price will hit the yellow resistance line at $41,400-$42,00 and if it rejects, it will fall back to the neckline at $30,000 and may eventually fall more to $20,000.
Also, for the inverse head and shoulder pattern to hold, I expect price to first go up to the supply zone at $43,000. If price rejects the zone, then I expect price to fall to $35,000 to form the right shoulder, then long to $58,000.
Therefore we have two likely moves here. Either price fall to $35,000 and rise again to $58,000 or price fall to $30,000 and continue to fall to $20,000.
What do you think?
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BTCUSD Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern + Bullish ABCD PatternWith everyone in fear over what is happening in the markets and in the world in general, this is my reading of what is going on in the current crypto markets. Bitcoin dominance is significant as we've seen, so we will be marking up BTCUSD . I started out with quarter point theory marking all significant price points (10k,20k,30k, etc). Followed by marking past major points of rejection (where price pinned and went the opposite way or where price struggled multiple times). Then, I measured the most significant, recent move to the upside with the Fibonacci followed by an ABA Fibonacci expansion using the 1.618 & 2.27 extensions (which both were perfectly hit). Once the bear market/major market correction started, I used the Fibonacci to measure the most recent significant move to the downside followed by another ABA extension using the 1.618 & 2.27 going to the downside to give me my Price Rejection Zone (PRZ). It matched up beautifully with past zones of major resistance. Now that I had a good understanding of the markets price action based on measurements and zones of resistance, I started looking for patterns in the price action. I immediately saw the obvious bullish ABCD pattern within the major move to the downside. This was my first finding that made me believe we could see another major move to the upside. Next, I noticed a massive Bullish shark pattern that has been playing out for months. Price is sitting perfectly at the 1st Fibonacci's 88.6 which is exactly where the buy zone starts for the bullish shark pattern. We can see it drop a bit more to fully complete the shark pattern, but I do not see price going below 24000 or my 2.27 extension. Price could pin 24k however and if it does, price will rapidly explode upward. My long entry will be on the second leg aka the retest low near 27k. This is simply my reading of the market. In no way is this financial advice. You should come to your own conclusions when trading. Just food for thought. Share this with a friend that can benefit from this type of technical analysis . Beware of the hidden bearish divergence.
Here are some helpful resources for those who don't know much about the patterns/tools described in this post.
fbs . com/analytics/guidebooks/shark-244
forex . com/en/education/education-themes/technical-analysis/abcd-pattern/
investopedia . com/terms/f/fibonaccilines.asp
investopedia . com/terms/f/fibonacciextensions.asp
forexspv . com/quarter-theory/
BTCDOM Familiar Bottoms Demonstrating the two peaks of altcoins, each touching 2.618
This slow recovery may give Ether the needed Push to adjust to its new place (higher place)
I make this assumption as BTC seems to be topping on a weekly chart (BLX), while ETH wants new highs
Probably due to the NFT madness
Bitcoin dominance criticsWe draw Fibonazzi based on May 2018 drop, where BTC.D first time indicated anything about the market (BTC went lower)
Also realized that this is not an ideal indicator for absolute price levels.
We will see if this is correct indicator for price trend, but we dont belive so.
Seems when BTC has lost more that 30% of its price BTC.D fluctuates the most.
Unfortunately list of BTC.D Index included cryptos are nowhere availale. BTC.D index seems to be a black box.
There are various ways presented online calculating the BTC.D index e.g. Tradingview.
Some history: No one cared about BTC.D in 2017-2018.
Google trends indicate increased searches for "bitcoin dominance" only starting Feb2021, not before.
BTC Dominance - Stopped Respecting The Channel and BouncingBTC will be the first to rise if we are to make it out of this current dip and if we aren't then BTC dominance will rise even more as people convert their dying alt bags to BTC - either way, we seem to be in a prime location for a BTC dominance bounce before an alt season continuation in a few weeks or months.
If you have any money in crypto you need to know this...There is a seasonality to the Crypto space. It comes in waves led by the leader and King BTC. There is no question many projects and exciting coins coming into this space but until the market cap of Bitcoin has been dethroned, Bitcoin exists as the the KING. Many Alt coins have had 5-6 months in the sun and this chart points that their cycle may be coming to an end for a season.
If you have any money invested in Crypto you may consider selling your Alts if you haven't been totally flushed out yet or allocating more of your holdings into BTC.
I just asked my 6 year old daughter which way she thought this chart was going to go next? Her answer was... "up". I asked her why? She told me "is this is pattern?".
Yes we see these patterns in Crypto. I called the bottom on BTC.D 3 about a month ago and was proven to be early. This game is hard to be perfect at or right all of the time. We are starting to see a strong bounce off the 2017 low. My entire point in putting this together is for you to closely look at your holdings and make sure for the next 2-3 months they are BTC dominant. Just shear math will tell you will have a better return there until this market consolidates over the next couple months. Alts like to see their parent (BTC) confident before they run wild.
Just as an example I'm personally looking for ETH/BTC to drop back to .50 before shifting more of my Bitcoin to ETH. Before this happens BTC.D will be much higher than it is now. Not only will this gain a higher return but our conversions will be better and our money will go further when BTC.D crawls back to up to the .60 price. We are on a journey back to the X. It's never a straight shot path either but I'll wake you up when we get there. Adjust your accounts accordingly.
BRONSON-TheSHARK
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Almost at 2017 LowThe Bitcoin Dominance ratio has been falling under our noses this year starting from the peak at 72.04% during the 1st week of the year, the week of Bitcoin's birthday.
From this point, the entirety of 2021 has been Bitcoin losing its dominance to ETH and BNB to what appears to be Binance Coin mimicking what Ethereum did in 2017 with the ERC20 tokens but a bit better because of the low fas fees.
Users in 2017 would trade cryptokitties on the Ethereum blockchain which at times would cost upwards of $20 to send a virtual kitten to another wallet, while traders today are creating Binance Chain smart tokens and projects for ~$1 and able to send those tokens to their friends for a fraction of what is possible on the Ethereum network.
The use case for the BSC network, Ethereum, as well as other leading smart contract platforms is at least 10x what it was in 2017 (and 10x is being very humble) so it only makes sense that new investors are piling on board these smaller capped coins and eating the market cap share away from Bitcoin.
Altcoin Season 2021 is almost wrapped up and is going to be completely finished once it wicks the bottom level at 35%. Every altcoin has basically 1000%+'d in terms of the BTC ratio and the money has been made. If you HODL'd through 2020 and 2021 you made a bag and congratulations. Even coins like MATIC and THETA rose 15,000%+.
The only altcoins that haven't hit their BTC ratio or gone up in the slightest yet are XRP and XLM which is very strange considering their use cases fix the fee problem found in ETH and now BNB even the network is becoming clogged. I believe this altcoin season is going to finish out and will be over right under our noses and when this ratio hits 35% and bottoms out, that will be the time XRP & XLM hit their highs in terms of the BTC ratio then the season will be over, show is over for the time being until the next altcoin season cycle.
From this point, this doesn't mean that BItcoin is going to go back down to $3,000 and the show would be over. All this altcoin money has to flow somewhere and that money is going to flow into the larger capped coins like BTC, ETH, and BNB. I believe these are the 'store of value' coins besides ones like LTC and XMR for their scarcity and privacy features. Bitcoin and the leading blue chip cryptos are going to increase dramatically in price after all of the billions of dollars in useless tokens flow into coins with real use cases.
It is only a matter of time before the narrative switches from all the new traders investing in Safemoon, other BNB tokens, and moonshots to find coins with fundamental value for the long term.
The entire altcoin market is overbought and personally I would not touch any altcoin to the USD ratio or BTC ratio for the long term with a 42-foot pole. The only ones where I can find value in this overbought market is in XRP & XLM. There should be zero reason why Elon can pump Dogecoin well beyond the market cap of these 2 coins and even surpass legacy companies like Ford & Kraft Heinz in mkt. cap with something that was created in 2 hours. I'm not mad i'm just disappointed in the lack of ability to find fundamental value and yes I am a value investor and getting outperformed by my friends mindlessly investing in Doge doesn't feel good and I want to FOMO in so badly but bite my lip and HODL the value. Now is not the time to buy Doge, you are buying top and Elons bags. He has $15B worth of Doge in a single wallet and controls about 30% of the network. Buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is almost at its 2017 low after the altcoin season was over. Everybody and their mom right now for the past 3 months has been screaming NFT, Safemoon, Cummies, BSC, what about alts? The focus has been away from BTC and if you want to make money you need to trade against the crowd,
let everybody trade their safemoon while you HODL the real value. At some point all the altcoin money needs to transfer into somewhere. Investors probably won't want cash besides their lamborghini so they're going to invest it into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 and is going to go for a tear after altcoin season is over. However, while the lights are still on at the party make as much money as you can against the BTC ratio to stack more sats for the long term.
Thank you for reading this update to the Bitcoin Dominance ratio and would love to hear your thoughts below!
BTC dominance back to falling??!We saw a huge wick up in BTC dominance yesterday due to the massive correction. We have stayed in the descending channel and didn't even close above it, we seem like we are back on track now with dominance falling again. I figure we could see a bounce off of the 40% level but we may not because it has been weakened over the past 5 days. We almost saw a flip in the ichimoku cloud but now we are back to "normal" with bearish resistance clouds. Aswell the EMA ribbons are are continuing to push down hard on us with a little bit of a reversal from the correction yesterday, we are seeing some more downwards slopping today. The RSI came up hot from the oversold area but now spiking down. Either way BTCs dominance falling lower is very positive for the overall market, BTC could still move a bit but altcoins will heavily outshine BTC. Not financial advice just my opinion!
HUGE ALTCOIN BOOM COMING??!!BTC dominance holding up at the historical 40% level and having a healthy market correction at the same time, in my eyes this lines up perfect for a huge altcoin run soon enough, a big shakeout even getting retail investors out. I believe we are going to see a huge boom when btc dominance falls below 40%, Our 2018 altseason peak was aprx 35%. Remember that this one could be even bigger due to all the adoption by institutions. The MACD looks very bearish with a bearish flip and big slopping downwards. We have also just come off a bearish slide on the bottom bollinger band, if we see our candle start to ride the bottom again we could see a huge slip below 40%. I think once this correction is over BTC is going to stay very stagnant and not move much at all when altcoins start to fly. NFA just my opinion
Good News For Crypto MarketingAfter while more people know Elon Musk how and why of its tweets and natural movement of market , now we can see again that CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D falls down also see BTC dominance index in 3 last month under 200 MA and it is good news for Crypto traders, Altcoins Holders and whom looking for Basically and theoretically analysis of Markets Charts.
Today we have BINANCE:BTCUSDT market crash ( I think max till almost 42640$) Under the influence of late Elon tweets and Fear in Market,
nevertheless Altcoins Particular Major and fundamental strong based ones could Resistance against BAD news.
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