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Beyondtechnicalanalysis

The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes! •Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻 written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022 Central European Time ( CET ) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) The TA: We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87. 34.27/16.88*100≈ 203% 203-100= 103% This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time) What is going on in the world? •Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive. •The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash: •The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof. •Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one. •The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years. •Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines. •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions •Palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation. •reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me. •Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble? •With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%). •fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off) •stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it. •supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything. •Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index) •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage? •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession. •Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction. "The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com "It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania. r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels. This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued. Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors". •Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This •Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s) THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!! Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss). Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
TVC:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
2
SOLANA - Intraday AI turn points. Today I take a look at Solana and how it works with the intraday AI on it. Firstly it has completed an ABCD @ 83.09 at the expected turn point of 6:30am. Now im expecting it to rally into 1:30pm followed by a sell off again. With this AI there is a 20-30min window if it doesnt turn within that time it is likely it wont work but when we get patterns at Fib levels that gives us a higher chance of a positive result. On the longer term still looking for the move to the 75 area. I hope this helps for your intraday trading. Enjoy the day. 👍👍
FTX:SOLUSD
by L_F
LUNA - Moment of truth!!Luna and the crypto market is at a possible turn point to go higher or to give up some more. We are just completing a Gartley Buy pattern @ 47.15. If it doesnt hold this level then we could see it drop to 34.00 where there are major ABCD patterns and FIB levels. We do have the 61.8% level from the May 2021 low but more likely to head lower if the current level breaks. The whole market is at a critical level the next couple of days are going to be interesting. I hope this helps, Enjoy the weekend.
by L_F
7
Bitcoin to 60k? Inverted head and shouldersHello Bitcoin has made an nice looking inverted head and shoulder pattern. The right shoulder is higher than the left one which tells there is eager buyers, and makes the pattern more bullish Target is around 60k but ofc we need to break the 50-52k hard resistance area to get there. Take a note also that the 10EMA (blue) and 25EMA (yellow) has also been flipped to support , as we can see bitcoin bounced from there For my views of bear trend to change we need to break 53k and close above. If we do that I believe we will go test the highs and eventually make a new All time high. BUT let's not get a head of ourselves If you do take trades always use stop loss! Otherwise you will get your ass burned! -Jebu
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by PalenTrade
2
💥Major Tradingview Tools & their UsesPlease support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Geometric shapes 1. Triangle Tool This is a simple drawing tool used to draw triangles on the chart. It is used to determine if a price will continue to move in a required direction or reverse. This tool can be used to draw a falling wedge pattern, an ascending or descending triangle, and a symmetrical triangle. 2. Curve This is U shaped tool used to connect a price trend. This tool is mainly used to the cup and handle pattern. 3. Path This tool is used to highlight a possible trend to move from a particular price to another. 4. Rectangle This tool is used to find draw out demand and supply zones. Annotation Tool 5. Text The text tool is used to write a word or group of words on the chart. 6. Tweet This tool is used to insert a tweet or message on the chart. It is done by copying & pasting the tweet link on the chart for it to display. 7. Callout This tool is used to identify a particular area on the chart and give a name or price of information on it. 8. Price note Used to signal out a particular price on the chart. 9. Price label Used to indicate a price zone on the chart. Measurement Tools 10. Trendline This is a measurement tool in Tradingview that is used to connect highs and lows in an uptrend or downtrend. 11. The Arrow Tool This tool is used to point out the direction to which price will go either up or down 12. Parallel channel This tool is used to detect an uptrend or a downtrend by connecting the Higher Highs (HH), Lower Highs (LH), Higher Lows (HL), and Lower Lows (LL). Prediction & Measurement Tool 13. Long Position This tool is used to signal out a long trade where the entry price, stop loss, and take profit price is used to calculate the potential risk to return ratio. 14. Short Position This is a tool that is used to predict a short move where the red box is the risk and the green part is the potential return. 15. Price Range This is a prediction tool is used to calculate the percentage increase or decrease of a particular coin or currency pair from a particular entry price to an exit price. 16. Date and Price Range This tool is used to determine the number of days, weeks, month and the percentage increase or decrease it took a coin or currency pair to move from a particular entry price to an exit price. 17. Forecast This tool is similar to date and price range. It is used to determine if a move in a long or short position from an entry to an exit price is a success or failure. What do you think? Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ Follow me stay updated about more educating content like this Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Long
by PetrockFxTrading
12
Possible short opportunity on XAUUSD soonXAUUSD looking bearish because... 1. Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 1D chart. 2. Price is retesting 1830, a major resistance. HOWEVER Price may continue to around 1845-50, due to there being a liquidity pool there, but once it reaches there price could possibly drop to 1800 because... 1. Double top pattern forming if price reaches 1850. Wait until US jobless claims are released on 10th Feb to determine where price could go.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by George_Haykal
GBPJPY (SHORT) 🔥🔥🔥We are currently on an uptrend which should probably be a fakeout. I'm waiting for the price to test my OB before it continues its bearish movement. Make sure you're following the channel so you won't miss a top-notch analysis like this!. Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck
Short
by Thewest-sidetrader
2
USDCAD (LONG) 🔥🔥🔥A clear break of structure, I am expecting the market to reverse back into my OB before continuing the BULLISH trend. Make sure you're following the channel so you won't miss a top-notch analysis like this!. Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck
Long
by Thewest-sidetrader
2