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Beyond Technical Analysis

EURAUD - Potential Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of weakness, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
AUDUSD still bearish AUD/USD Chart Analysis and Trade Setup (4H Timeframe) Technical Analysis: 1. Ichimoku Cloud: Price Action: The price is trading below the Kumo Cloud, signaling a bearish bias. Tenkan-Sen (Blue Line) and Kijun-Sen (Red Line): The Tenkan-Sen remains below the Kijun-Sen, which confirms bearish momentum. Cloud Outlook: The future Kumo (to the right) remains red, indicating that bearish sentiment is likely to persist. 2. Support and Resistance: Immediate Support: 0.63500, as the price is currently testing this level. Resistance Levels: 0.63790 (first hurdle), 0.63911 (stronger short-term resistance). If support at 0.63500 breaks, the next downside target will likely be 0.63259. 3. Volume: Volume is relatively moderate but has picked up as the price tests support, suggesting a potential breakout to the downside if sellers gain control. 4. Candlestick Patterns: A series of bearish candles is seen, with no strong reversal patterns as of now. A bearish continuation setup may unfold if the price closes below 0.63500 on the next candle. Trade Setup: 1. Bearish Scenario: Entry: Short the AUD/USD pair if the price closes below 0.63500. Target: First take-profit at 0.63259, Extended target at 0.63000 if bearish momentum accelerates. Stop-Loss: Place a stop above 0.63790 (resistance). Risk/Reward: Ensure a minimum ratio of 1:2 for profitability. 2. Bullish Reversal Setup (Less Probable): If the price bounces off 0.63500: Entry: Long above 0.63790. Target: First at 0.63911 and next at 0.64261. Stop-Loss: Below 0.63450 to minimize risk. Conclusion: Current bias is bearish with potential for further downside if support at 0.63500 breaks. Watch for volume confirmation and price action around key support levels before entering trades. A bounce would signal short-term relief, but the trend remains bearish as long as the price trades below the cloud and resistance areas.
Short
by Welburg_Trading
Some experience for new comersNever buy high, never sell low (Though you will find sometime low is not low high is not high when you trade long enough) ChrisShawky: Do not pay anyone to teach you: always a scam JRobs88: go sign up for IBKR account. It’s free. And then use their online school. Babypips.com another great place to start. coreyhouck: demo demo demo demo and then some more demo Bone-Collector-444: My advise is stay on demo, its enough to make u realize this is a a scam rteglersVIX: deomo for a year demo for whatever time.. 1yr and over JRobs88: I’ve been trading over 10 years and I STILL use demo almost everyday. kalospec: Just stop, and focus on other things, not trading. It will ruin your life. The mentality and pressure of people using real accounts and demo accounts are completely different. Mentality and pressure will greatly affect people's judgment. You can only fully learn to trade by using real accounts. When you start using real accounts, my suggestion is that the funds used in the account should be such that your life will not be affected even if you lose 20 or more accounts. Don't just look at those who become rich overnight, look more at those who go bankrupt. Some people even lose their lives because they overuse leverage. I have seen even those who have been profitable for ten years eventually went bankrupt.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by qnqnccx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated bearish momentum during this week's trading session by staying firmly between Mean Res 1.060 and Mean Sup 1.049. This weak price action might be the clue to nulling the Inner Currency Rally 1.072 and extending its trajectory to revisiting the completed Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the Mean Res level at 1.060 and reignite its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's repeated pullback in this week's trading session by upholding firmly at the Mean Sup 96000 price level within the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 103600 is now noted. Recent analyses indicate that the cryptocurrency will likely retest the completed Inner Coin Rally 103600 by navigating the weak Mean Resistance 102300. This movement is anticipated to revitalize its upward trajectory toward the projected Outer #1 Coin Rally 110000 and beyond. Furthermore, a potential decline to the Mean Support 97000 would prepare the market for the subsequent phase of a bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
Practical Guide to Building Profitable Trading StrategiesAfter reading this article, you'll understand the key elements needed to build a profitable trading system, identify potential flaws, and learn how to fix them for consistent results. Four Essential Elements of an Effective Strategy 1. Trend Identification ("Should I buy or sell?") - 50% of success The trend is the foundation of any strategy. To identify it, you can use tools such as moving averages, volume profiles (when volume accumulates above the current price, it signals a downtrend; when it accumulates below the price, it signals an uptrend), or even macroeconomic analysis, news sentiment, and crowd psychology for additional confirmation. For example : If the 200 SMA indicates an uptrend, focus only on buying opportunities. Tip : Avoid using multiple tools for the same purpose as conflicting signals can lead to confusion. One reliable tool per element is sufficient. 2. Key Level Identification ("Where should I enter the trade?") - 30% of success This element helps to locate zones with the most favorable risk/reward (RR) ratio. Fibonacci levels, support/resistance zones, pivot points or smart money concepts can indicate whether the price is at a discount, premium or fair value. For example : Pivot points can be used to identify levels such as the "pivot point" and the nearest support/resistance zones. Tip : Your entry point should be supported by a support or resistance level, while the path to the take profit target should remain unobstructed. 3. Entry Signals ("When should I enter?") - 15% success rate Entry signals can be determined by oscillators such as stochastics, candlestick patterns or volume spikes. For example : When the price reaches a support zone and the Stochastic leaves the oversold area (crossing above the 20 level), this could be a signal to enter a long position. Important: Signals only help with timing; they should not be the basis of your entire strategy. 4. Filters for accuracy - 10% of success Filters improve the quality of trades by adding additional conditions. Examples include volatility (ATR), trend strength (ADX), volume or seasonal patterns. Example : Volume can confirm the strength of a trend or a potential reversal. For example, if the price reaches a support level after a correction and volume spikes, this could indicate buying activity and a possible reversal. Tip : If your strategy uses price-based tools for trend, levels and signals, consider adding a non-price based filter (e.g. volatility or volume). Step-by-Step Plan for Identifying Trading Opportunities Here's how to combine these elements into a strategy: Identify the trend: Use a tool such as the 200 SMA to determine the direction of the market. Find the key level: Use Fibonacci retracements or support/resistance zones to locate critical price levels. Wait for a signal: Confirm with candlestick patterns, oscillators or volume. Apply filters: Ensure that market conditions are in line with your strategy using ATR or volume analysis. Why it is important to adjust your strategy Markets are constantly evolving and no strategy works equally well in all conditions. Adjusting parameters to current conditions is critical for consistent success. Consider: Asset type: cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, etc. Market conditions: trending, range-bound or highly volatile markets. Timeframe: intraday, swing, or long-term trading. Example 1 : Moving averages (e.g. 200 SMA) work well in trending markets, but lose effectiveness in sideways conditions. In such cases, oscillators such as RSI or Stochastic provide more precise entry and exit signals. Example 2 : During periods of high volatility, such as after major news events, ATR can help set stop-losses and take-profits to account for wider price ranges. Example 3 : Shorten the length of the SMA for faster intraday trading. The importance of testing your strategy Before using a strategy in live markets, you should ensure its effectiveness. Testing is critical, especially for beginners, to avoid unnecessary mistakes and losses. Backtesting : Use historical data on platforms such as TradingView to see how your strategy would have performed in the past. Trading simulators : Test your strategy on demo accounts or trading simulators to mimic real market conditions. Success Metrics : Evaluate your strategy using key metrics such as profit factor, risk-reward ratio, and expectation. Tip: Analyze both winning and losing trades to identify weaknesses and refine your approach. Let's discuss This is just the beginning. I'll cover each element in more detail in future articles. If you have your own approaches that make your strategies successful, share them in the comments. Let's share and improve together!
Education
by Crypto_Strateg
The Dangerous Fantasy That's Killing Your Trading CareerAre you still watching YouTube videos of traders showing off their luxury cars and million dollar properties? They make it look so easy to profit from the market. A few clicks here and there. Add some magical indicators. Suddenly you're making thousands of dollars a day. I fell for it hard. I was like you. I wanted something that could get me rich quick. The dream of leaving my 9-5 job to travel the world. I don’t want to worry about money again. Trading seemed like the perfect solution. This costs me $10,000 and five years of my life. The Seductive Lie of Quick Riches You've definitely seen those Instagram posts. Screenshots showing $5,000 profit from one trade, sports cars in the background, and the classic laptop-by-the-beach setup. They tell you they've discovered a "secret strategy" that wins 90% of the time. For just $99, they'll share it with you. It all sounded too good to be true. Right? Think about it. If someone really had a strategy that could turn $1,000 into $100,000 in a month, why would they sell it for $99? They could easily approach any hedge fund and make millions. But they don't. Instead, they're selling courses and signals to hopeful traders like you and me. They spend hours trying to market their products to you while they can just click a button and earn $10,000 in 30 minutes. My Expensive Journey to Reality When I started trading, I thought I'd be different. I was smart, hardworking, and determined. I studied technical analysis, learned about indicators, and even bought some "guaranteed" trading systems. My first few trades were winners. I turned $500 into $1,000 in just a week. I felt invincible. I do have a hand of midas. This was it. I found my holy grail! I could already picture myself quitting my job in a few months. I planned how much I could earn in a year and I could retire my parents.  I started taking bigger risks. Why make $100 per trade when I could make $1,000? Why risk 1% when I could risk 10%? After all, my strategy was "proven" to work. I have the holy grail on hand. I just needed to scale up faster to reach my destination. Then reality hit. Three months later, my account was blown. But I wasn't worried. I just needed to deposit more money and trade better. This cycle repeated until I had lost my entire savings. The Hidden Cost of the Get-Rich-Quick Mindset The real danger isn't just losing money. It's the mindset that trading is a shortcut to getting rich.  You begin to put on bigger risks because you want larger profits. You skip proper education, because you want results now. You ignore risk management, because your account size grows too slow. You chase losses, because you can't accept small setbacks. You jump from strategy to strategy, trying to look for the holy grail. I see traders doing exactly what I did. They risk 50% of their account on one trade, hoping to double their money quickly. When it works, they feel like geniuses. When it fails eventually, they lose everything. The Uncomfortable Truth About Trading Success Here's what successful traders won't show you on Instagram: Years of studying and practice before becoming profitable. Countless hours of backtesting and analyzing trades. Multiple blown accounts while learning. Small, consistent gains instead of massive wins. Strict risk management that seems "too conservative." The reality? Most successful traders make 2-5% per month consistently. That's it. No lamborghinis, no private jets, just steady, compound growth over time. Think about the math. If you start with $10,000 and make 3% per month consistently, you'll have $14,257 after one year. Not exactly Instagram-worthy, is it? But after five years of compounding, that becomes $43,891. After ten years? $192,577. The Real Path to Trading Success When I finally accepted that trading wasn't a get-rich-quick scheme, everything changed. I stopped looking for the holy grail and started focusing on the basics: Proper risk management, never risking more than 1% per trade. Consistent execution of one simple strategy. Patient position building as my account grew. Regular review and improvement of my process. The transformation wasn't exciting. No massive winning days. No Instagram-worthy screenshots. Just small, consistent profits that compound over time. What Real Trading Looks Like Let me share what my trading looks like now.  Here's the reality: I take 2-3 trades per week, not 20 trades per day. My average winning trade is 2R, not 100R. I spend more time managing risk than looking for entries. Most of my trading days are boring and uneventful. This approach isn't sexy. It won't make you rich by next month. But it works, consistently and reliably. Building a Sustainable Trading Career The secret to trading success isn't finding the perfect strategy or indicator. It’s never about the holy grail. It's about changing your mindset from getting rich quickly to building wealth slowly. This means that you need to do the following: Understand that trading is a business, not a lottery ticket.  Focusing on risk management before profit potential. The longer you stay in the game, the closer your results will converge to your expected value.  Building proper habits and routines.  Celebrating consistency over big wins. Let big winners come by executing the same trade over and over again. Thinking in terms of years, not days or weeks. You underestimate how much you can accomplish over a long period of time, The Choice Is Yours You're at a crossroads right now. You can continue chasing the fantasy of quick riches, jumping from strategy to strategy, hoping to find that magical solution that will make you rich overnight. Or you can accept that trading success comes from consistent execution, proper risk management, and time.  It's not exciting. But it works. I've walked both paths. The first one cost me $10,000 and years of frustration. The second one led me to managing six-figure funded accounts and to be consistent in my trading. The idea of getting rich quickly is appealing, but the reality of consistent profits is always better.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Keeleytwj
BTCUSDT Trade Log BTCUSDT 1H Short Setup Trade Idea: - Short from the micro FVG in a premium zone after rejecting an Order Block (OB). Confluence: - Rising Wedge: Bearish wedge structure showing signs of exhaustion. - Bearish Divergences: RSI and CVD indicate weakening momentum. - Macro Pressure: Bybit fined in the Netherlands for fraud; Flow Traders withdrew €157M in BTC—both signal potential bearish sentiment. Risk-Reward: - Tight stop-loss above the OB/FVG zone. - 1:2 RRR targeting liquidity levels below $98,000. Quick Take: Macro events and bearish divergences align for a strong short opportunity. Stay cautious of volatility and confirm rejection before full entry!
Short
by Fondera
Bitcoin Heading for a Local TOP on 16-17 December 2024These are 3 x Ceres in Aquarius fractals from the past 3 occasions in Bitcoin's life. What I like about these fractals is that 2 of them top on 16 & 17 of December which is a confluence to the Moon cycle topping on 16 December 2024. This Ceres in Aquarius confluence seems good quality because these cycles repeat only once in 4 years and to get 2 cycles to converge on a top on the same dates 16 & 17 December, it is outstanding. We need to see a clearly defined top on 16 or 17 December to be able to make the above conclusion. If we don't get a well-shaped top, that would mean more moves to the upside, as there are some other confluences for that. Ceres in Aquarius tops on 16 -17 December until the year's end. After that it continues higher up in January 2025.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Eleanze
1
BTC/USDT: Head and Shoulders Pattern with Bullish Continuation Phello guys. let's dive into btcusdt! Analysis: Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: A clear inverse head and shoulders pattern is visible on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential trend reversal. The head is formed at 93,842 USDT, with left and right shoulders forming near 96,598 USDT. Neckline Resistance: The neckline resistance at 102,698 USDT has been tested multiple times, hinting at potential upward momentum. Fib Retracement Levels: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 96,598 USDT acted as strong support for the right shoulder. The breakout target aligns with the 108,991 USDT zone, derived from the measured move of the pattern. Bullish Projection: The price could rally toward the 105,798 USDT mid-resistance zone, with a higher probability of reaching the 108,991 USDT target. Summary: Support Levels: 96,598 USDT (Fibonacci and right shoulder support). 93,842 USDT (head level). Resistance Levels: 102,698 USDT (neckline). 108,991 USDT (target zone). Outlook: A confirmed breakout above 102,698 USDT could lead to a sharp upward move, targeting the 108,991 USDT zone. Trade Idea: Watch for a neckline breakout with strong volume or consider a pullback toward the right shoulder for better risk-to-reward opportunities.
Long
by melikatrader94
3
Decoding Cattle: Live Cattle Market Poised for a Bearish Shift?Decoding the Signals: Is the Live Cattle Market Poised for a Bearish Shift? “There is a system in chaos, a signal in the noise.” Every week, the Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy uncovers setups across markets. This week, Live Cattle has emerged as a standout opportunity—one that suggests a significant bearish move may be on the horizon. But let me be clear: this isn’t an invitation to blindly short the market. It’s a call to decode the signals, understand the conditions, and prepare for what could be a meaningful shift. Let’s dive into the evidence. Code 1: Extreme Positioning The Commercial and Small Speculator Indexes, using a 26-week lookback, are both at extremes in short positioning. When Commercials—the smart money—position themselves this aggressively, it’s a sign that something is brewing. Code 2: Small Spec Extremes (Don't Fade The Small Specs in Meat Markets) Small Speculators are at a 3-year extreme in short positioning. Here’s where Live Cattle differs from most markets: in this space, Small Specs often get it right. Also, we see the “Bubble-Up” phenomenon: the net open interest lines of Small Specs and Commercials "bubbling up" against the Large Specs. This pattern often precedes major turning points, signaling that a shift is possibly near. Code 3: Overvaluation Using the WillVal indicator, we see that Live Cattle is overvalued relative to gold. Markets tend to correct misalignments in value, and this overvaluation points to a downside recalibration. When the market’s perception doesn’t align with reality, the result is rarely subtle. Seasonals: A Fly in the Ointment? Seasonal tendencies suggest Live Cattle typically trends upward until February. However, seasonals reflect historical patterns—what has happened in the past. Positioning data, on the other hand, shows us what’s happening now. Given the extreme positioning currently in play, it’s likely the seasonal tendency will fail to materialize this time. Distribution Signals Signs of distribution are evident across multiple indicators: Insider Accumulation Index: suggests institutions are quietly offloading positions. POIV and ProGo divergence: further confirmation that the smart money is exiting. Distribution is the hallmark of a market top. When the signs are this clear, the question isn’t if the market will turn but when. Spread Weakening The spread between the front-month and the next-month-out contracts in Live Cattle is weakening. This weakening spread indicates a shift in market sentiment. A weakening spread often reflects reduced demand for the front month or increasing supply pressures, both of which align with a bearish narrative. When the spread no longer supports bullish momentum, it’s another signal that the tide is turning. Additional Bearish Indicators The weight of evidence continues to stack: %R is firmly in the sell zone. Weekly and daily bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator. A confirmed weekly bearish momentum divergence. These signals reinforce the bearish case, painting a clear picture of a market under pressure. What Will You Do With This Information? Here’s where many traders falter. It’s easy to see the signals and jump in prematurely. But setups like these are not a green light to enter—they are a call to prepare. Timing is everything. Successful trading isn’t just about identifying opportunities—it’s about executing with precision. The Live Cattle market may be gearing up for a bearish move, but the key lies in waiting for the right entry trigger. The Privilege of Understanding Most traders never see these signals. They’re too caught up in noise, emotions, and guesswork. But you’re different. You’ve been given a glimpse of how the market truly works—a rare opportunity to decode its hidden signals. If you’re ready to step further into this world, to see the Matrix for what it is and act with clarity and purpose, the journey awaits. Want to learn how to decode the market like this? Stick with me, and let’s break free from the herd together.
CME:LEG2025Short
by Tradius_Trades
2