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Beyond Technical Analysis

Can the U.S. Dollar Overtake the Euro? Will EUR/USD Fall Below 1The EUR/USD pair has been hovering near a critical psychological level of 1.0000, sparking debates among traders about whether the U.S. dollar's strength could push the euro below parity. Current market dynamics suggest that a break below this level is plausible, with a potential target of 0.9889. Historical Context: Why Did EUR/USD Fall Below 1.00 in September 2022? The last time EUR/USD fell below parity was in September 2022, driven by several key factors: Aggressive Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The Federal Reserve was highly hawkish in 2022, implementing aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. This strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly against other currencies, including the euro. Eurozone Energy Crisis: The Eurozone faced an energy crisis due to reduced natural gas supplies following geopolitical tensions with Russia. This created economic uncertainty, weakening the euro. Recession Fears in Europe: Concerns about a potential recession in the Eurozone further pressured the euro, as investors shifted their focus to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar. ------------------------------------ Key Technical Levels: Resistance at 1.0090: The pair is currently facing strong resistance at 1.0090, where sellers have consistently stepped in to cap bullish attempts. This level aligns with a key supply zone, suggesting heavy sell-side liquidity. Support at 1.0000: The psychological level of 1.0000 acts as a critical support zone. A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure. Next Target: 0.9889: If the support at 1.0000 is breached, the pair could decline toward 0.9889, marking the next major support level from the previous price action. ------------------------------------ Factors Driving the Dollar’s Strength Today: U.S. Economic Resilience: ]Strong economic data from the U.S., such as better-than-expected GDP growth and employment numbers, continues to support the dollar’s strength. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance: The Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates high to combat inflation has been a major driver of USD appreciation. Eurozone Weakness: On the other hand, weaker economic performance in the Eurozone, coupled with uncertainty around energy markets, has kept the euro under pressure.
Short
by melikatrader94
3
Market Anomaly Detector (MAD) Performance (PAID)The chart showcases the performance of our Market Anomaly Detector (MAD) indicator on the Bitcoin/USDT pair using a 15-minute timeframe. This indicator is designed to identify significant price anomalies, reversals, and trend continuations based on statistical and momentum analysis. Key Features Demonstrated: 1. Anomaly Zones: • The background highlights Bullish (green) and Bearish (red) anomaly zones, where price deviates significantly from expected levels. • Neutral zones (gray) represent expected price ranges, allowing traders to anticipate consolidations or trend reversals. 2. Buy/Sell Signals: • Buy signals (green labels): Appear when conditions confirm a reversal or continuation of a bullish trend. • Sell signals (red labels): Indicate bearish momentum with strong confirmation of a downward trend. 3. Dynamic Price Bands: • The upper and lower bands act as dynamic resistance and support levels, providing early visual cues for potential reversals or breakout zones. 4. Signal Accuracy: • The chart demonstrates how the indicator filters false signals by employing conditions like RSI confirmation, Z-Score thresholds, and volume validation. • Signals appearing on confirmation candles ensure stronger reliability and avoid premature entries.
by TradeTechanalysis
"Buy high, sell low" BTC price expectation in the next 4 years Many of traders probably have came across this phase "buy high, sell low". It's a joke spinning from the correct way of trading - "buy low, sell high". However, it seems that is what I was doing early on my trading. There is another one when I buy and the price seems to always drop, and when I finally sell, the price climb to a new ATH. It is odd that many trader can relate to this. As I got more experienced in trading, I have learned that trading is all about the timing and preparation. My timing was off, therefore I was not prepare. Luckily the macro cycle of BTC and crypto in general is very predictable. This makes the timing easy to be recognized and make the preparation easy. I have experienced 3 of the BTC halving and Alt coin seasons. Every 4 year, BTC halving occurs (google if you dont know, it's very important) and several months later BTC price climb and surpass the ATH. This exact event had occur many times on: 2012, 2016, 2020, and now 2024. After breaking the ATH, the BTC price becomes stagnant, which starts the Alt coin season, then become extremely violetlike, drop and crypto winter begins. This is the pattern that I have recognized and learn so that I can prepare myself to maximize profit. "The past event may not occur again and should not be used to predict the future". This phase haunts me before I finally took the leap of faith. During the crypto winter of 2019 and covid, I had predicted that if the covid panic did not bring BTC down to zero, its going to bounce back up and break its ATH after the halving. Surely enough it did. Unfortunately, I had only bagged a small amount of BTC. Then I sold during the declining of the first pump in the early 2021. The lesson I learn here is that selling is much harder than buying. It is because I held the bag since covid, felt like I was married to them, while worry about if I had sell them at the best value. Even if I had sold on the down trend, I made nearly 8X. Different level of preparation went into this 2024 BTC cycle, I had bought some BTC in 2022, 2023, before and after the FTX went bankrupt. I had DCA through out the crypto winter. This time I was ready. Interesting thing about this cycle was my timing felt.....off, it felt like I was just throwing money into endless pit. Then it finally clicked, this was the buyers' market, and buyers want to buy BTC at the lowest price possible. While, everyone is selling to get rid of the BTC, I will keep on buying. By no means this feel good at all, seeing your investment just decrease over time. Then 1 day, the negative return became positive. It was a moment of euphoria and relief. Lesson learn from the previous time about selling, I set a target for BTC price at 100K, once BTC reach 100K - sell. So I did. I anticipate this cycle ATH will be around 100-110K. Some crazy events will occur again, I dont know what it is but it will.... then BTC price will drop in 2026-2027. Some time between these two years, it is the best time to purchase. I anticipate that the cycle low will be around 20K to 35K. The halving will occur in 2028, then by the end of the year it will pump. I will update when purchase starts, see you in 2026
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CptGucci
Wajani Investment...Long-term investment in this currencyGBPCAD 12/24/2024 This trade is for those looking to invest in a currency. This is a long-term trade (investment). This pair entered consolidation or has been in accumulation since 2016 (PS) . It created a Spring (SP) sometime in 2022 and finally the l ast point of support (LPS) in 2024 . It has taken approximately nine years of accumulation to reach LPS. For those who are familiar with Wyckoff trading method , this is more understandable. This shit is gonna explode like BTC lol If you are interested in learning more, please reach out. Remember, this is for educational purposes ONLY. Let me know your thoughts. For educational purposes only.
Long
by racyrace
SOLUSDT - Will this nightmare come true?On October 22, I published this chart, and many were skeptical about what I was talking about. "I share it and u can check the link i left in attachment." Now, this scenario is highly likely, and everything is unfolding as shown in the chart below. You can clearly see the Wyckoff Distribution pattern already formed, and so far, price movements align significantly with the illustration provided. Currently, the price has returned to the distribution zone, hitting the "failed rally point" . All of this appears to have been a trap. And why not?... SOL is one of the largest coins in the market by market cap. Everyone is expecting SOL to achieve x3 or even x10. This makes it entirely logical for the price not to move higher amidst this level of optimism. I’m not entirely pessimistic, but I view things from a purely logical perspective. This pattern is not yet confirmed—we need a massive red candle closing below the distribution zone to confirm it. However, the price movement so far is perfectly aligned with the Wyckoff Distribution logic. If a close below this red zone happens, consider it a signal to exit the market entirely."
by ceciliones
18
Are the Bitcoin bulls and bears right?Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in the world and by far the greatest. With bitcoin attempting to be the world’s reserve asset, are the bulls accurate to say that 245K is the Top while the bulls are saying 85K is the Low? Both can be right, and there lies the confusion. Elliott wave enthusiast may say we’re in a fourth wave correction leading to the top of the market. The four wave may actually go as deep as 85k as the bears predict but may also be the wave leading into the top $245k as the bulls predict. Somewhere in between the two lies the answer.
CME:BTC1!Long
by ParabolicP