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Bearmarket

BTC LONG VIEW CHARTThis chart is so simple but in the same time so good. In the last bear cycles: -When the price droped below the 150 WMA (Weekly Moving Average) (blue) and tested the 200WMA (yellow) we had a couple of months in consolidation between this 2 WMA; In this time of consolidation between the 2 WMA we also had an RSI indicator with oversold values (Order block on the RSI indicator); And on 2018 bear market we had a retrace to the 0,382 level of FIB retracement , precisely where we are right now. Curiosity As well on 2014 Bear market we have now a falling wedge pattern in formation (Bullis pattern). On 2014 the price broke down the support line of the falling wedge, Eventrough in the followng weeks the price came back to the falling wedge. Which is curiously the same thing that is happening ritght now, the price broke the falling wedge pattern and next i believe , given the market analysis above and the similarity with previous bear cycles we are close to a bottom and in a Exelent time/zone for accumulating Bitcoin
BNC:BLXLong
by AlexandreAmaro
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% BTC, 85% Cash. *Markets seemed to like the Fed's decision to go with a 75 bp rate hike, but with the next PMI report arriving on June 23rd it's unclear how long this excitement will last. If PMI comes in higher than last month and by a larger percentage than the previous report, it would imply that inflation is still raging and markets will likely react negatively; if it comes in higher than last month but by a lesser percentage than the previous report, it will likely signal that inflation is slowing and markets may react negatively but perhaps more briefly than in the previous scenario; and if it somehow comes in lower than it did in May we may see a stronger rally to end the month. The next CPI report is due July 13th and the next FOMC meeting is July 26-27. Vlad the Not so Great is likely going to continue escalating the war in Ukraine, China's 'Zero-Covid' Policy may or may not come to a halt come Autumn when it is election time for the CCP, and the situation between China/Taiwan/Japan and the South and East China Sea is still a wildcard for the end of 2022. Lots to be vigilant about so stay safe.* Price is currently forming a Bull Flag bottom in effort to reclaim $24180 minor support and avoid formally testing $19417 support. Volume remains high and is currently on track to favor buyers if it can close this session in the green; buyers reacted positively to the FOMC decision to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 75 bps. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $31150, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 25.60 support as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line form 01/22/22. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at max bottom; though it can coast in the "bearish autobahn zone" for some time, a bullish crossover is likely pending. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -2037; the next support (minor) is at -2497 and the next resistance -1435 (still very loosely can act as support with a bounce here). ADX is currently trending up at 32 as Price is attempting to find a bottom, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to continue the move upward it will likely test $24180 minor resistance before potentially going higher to test the 50/50 uptrend line from August 2017 at $29k. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely test $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
Bitcoin - Bear market cheat sheetKeep it plain, simple and minimize the noise! On this chart I am showing you the timeframes of events that occurred in the previous bear market. Now, this chart will of course only make sense if we follow the same trend of the previous bear market of course, although I think its great to keep an eye on just in case we do! Important to ignore your favourite bullish influencers in these times, as in reality we still have a lot longer of a bear season to embrace. Bottoms take time to form, there is nothing bullish about Bitcoin and Crypto at the moment, due to the lack of volume and reaction, there is almost a 0% chance of a "V shaped recovery" like some clowns are mentioning. Keep an eye on the monthly MACD, as I have said previously we will not have any real bullish action if it is in red, if you refuse to believe - look back at the previous times it has crossed red.. If we get a fake pump into the 40-50k zone around the area marked on the chart, best to not FOMO into it if you missed it from the bottom - high chances it will be a bull trap, going off previous data. There are lots of external global economic factors to consider as well, as they will invalidate every single chart and idea, Crypto has never experienced a recession and my best bet is that it will not go well, due to being one of the most riskiest assets. So keep an eye on the global economy, global events and you will be on top of the market. Note: I have labelled current price as bottom and crab stage, although I do expect it to go lower: The reason I have done this is due to the massive volatility/price drops, with also the possibility based on another research piece I will post soon, that the crypto cycles are fluctuating in time (shorter bull, shorter bear). Stay safe everyone! Curious to see what everyone else's thoughts are, comment your ideas down below :)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by tradermoth
Chilliz Has a Junk Yard Magnet Wedge And is Ready For Bull!What's up trading view Family! What A Good Day to be Alive. Today we will be taking a look at CHILLIZ and how similar the market structure is to XLM (aka STR). Many people think we are headed into a bear market but I say we already had one! its exactly like the Altcoin bear market of 2017 (only a bit longer as the cycle grew) I also see Bitcoin and Ethereum have a lot of upside left before they see another bear market anywhere near the size of 2018, and this will carry many undervalued altcoins into a bullish market. Stay confident! Whales love buying blood in the streets. Stay profitable.
BITFINEX:CHZUSDLong
by High_Altitude_Investing
1
Fortune Favors the Brave - Fifth wave (Ponzi scheme)Fortune Favors the Brave - Yet another sign that a mania is mature. Hyperbole is a useful word to know. Meaning, “ exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally, ” an example would be something like, “ That cat is the size of an elephant!. ” Hyperbole is used when we want to emphasize a point, mainly because of our conviction and belief in the subject being stated, and when we are very excited . It’s no surprise, therefore, that hyperbolic language is found towards the end of manias. The most recent example came this week with this advert aired on U.S. television featuring the famous actor, Matt Damon. As he walks past historical figures of explorations and achievements such as climbing Mount Everest and the moon landings, the clip ends with an awe-inspiring view of planet earth and the strapline, “ fortune favors the brave. ” The product that is being advertised? Crypto.com , the online exchange for cryptocurrency trading. Comparing investing or trading in cryptocurrencies to such epic achievements of the human race is hyperbole . It’s the latest exhibit of unfettered speculation in the mania of crypto and fits perfectly with the tail end of a fifth wave . As the chart above shows, Bitcoin is labeled to be in the final fifth wave of its rally from inception . This chart shows it priced in Gold , but Bitcoin priced in U.S. dollars has a very similar structure. One clue which characterizes a fifth wave is that Primary degree wave ((5)) is shallower than wave ((3)), despite the much-increased manic behavior around the sector. Some people are stating that Bitcoin et al is a Ponzi scheme that will collapse ( one commentator states that it is much worse than a Ponzi scheme in fact ). We’ll leave that for others to decide. All we know is that when we see such a clear Elliott Wave structure, combined with such sentiment, the probability of a major top is high and growing. When Amazon shares crashed by 95% amidst the dot.com bust just over twenty years ago, the “ brave ” thing to do then was to buy. If, as we suspect, the crypto-mania suffers a similar shakeout , perhaps the brave thing to do will be to buy the leader that survives. But don’t expect any high-profile adverts about it. Ponzi scheme - Bitcoin Crash dot.com vs crypto.com F.E.A.R Today, there is the State Of Fear how can we "SEE". The Fear and uncertainty in the markets. However, this is typically seen with declining. How is fear seen?. My frailty as a human has shown itself a sign of it eating them like cancer. Often times you will encounter people who will cause you to doubt your own development. This can be due to seeing their false image stunts or ridiculous drivel about trading methods. See that you mind your own business always. Life has an uncanny ability to present distractions. Even when you didn't ask for their opinion. Why would someone who doesn't know what you are learning to be concerned with your development, to begin with? Keep the focus on your task... improving from where you were yesterday. You see the proof... you witness the evidence. Give no time to fools. Energy and time wasted on the unlearned who stay in doubt or envy is a terrible drain on your productivity as a student. I don't care who they are or what they say... I remain... and so shall you. Good Luck!
TVC:GOLDShort
by ferGOD
8
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.Remember, my goal is to stay in the game. The people who got wiped out by the crashes tended to be people who never took anything off the table, who never felt greedy, who got slaughtered by their own piggishness. Have you taken your profit? Have you booked anything? Or are you being a pig? Because you never know when things you own are going to crash. You never know when the market could be wiped out. You can't have certainty. At those times, you have only human nature to guide you. I would like to wish you all a Happy Xmas, and regardless of your religion, I wish you to spend moments of peace and happiness with your family and friends, it is time to celebrate life!
BNC:BLXShort
by ferGOD
8
BTC/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTC/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *BTC has finally broken down below the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 and now risks falling to retest the official uptrend line from April 2017 (for the first time since October 2020) at $15k-$19k. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this Wednesday when the Fed will decide whether to go through with another 50bp rate hike or be even more dovish and go for 75bp (or even 100bp) in attempt to slow down inflation. As unfortunate as it may be, cryptos and equities will continue to be hit the hardest (highest amount of speculation here) until the Fed is able to ring in inflation. If we end up with a hard landing (and recession), this will likely signify that the bottom is in for cryptos and equities and the next focus can be on how to revitalize growth.* Recommended ratio: 5% BTC, 95% Cash. Price broke down below the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 after testing it as support for 30 consecutive sessions and is now testing $24180 minor support (currently trending down at $23k). Volume is High in today's session marked by a 15% sell off; it's currently on track to favor sellers for seven consecutive sessions if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA (~$32k), this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom, where it can potentially coast in the "bearish autobahn zone" for a while. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session at -868 minor resistance, it is currently trending down at -1331 and fast approaching -1435 support. ADX is currently trending up at 27 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here at $24180 minor support, it will likely trade sideways until it can test the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 as resistance at $29k or the descending trendline from November 2021 at $24k-$29k. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely test $19417 support for the first time since breaking out above it in December 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
USDX Daily TA Cautiously BullishUSDX Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are down, cryptos are down, commodities are down (yes Gold included), real estate/housing market down, inflation up and the US dollar (as well as Russian ruble)... up. The Fed is expected to announce anywhere from a 50bp-100bp rate hike this Wednesday if they want to be in line with their promise to go "beyond neutral" to ring in still growing inflation; 50bp would likely assuage markets in the short term and stall the dollar, whereas 75bp+ would likely send markets lower and keep pushing up the dollar.* Recommended ratio: 90% USDX, 10% cash. Price is currently in Discovery as it is currently printing a new ATH at $105.05 amidst a big push back into treasuries (10y/30y). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close in the green in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $101.36, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently breaking above 63.78 and is trending up at 68.60 as it fast approaches overbought territory. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of testing max top (where it can potentially coast in the bullish "autobahn zone" for a while). MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 0.39, the next resistance is at 0.46; if it blows past 0.46, it will likely test the uptrend line from August 2020 at around 0.80 resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 23 as Price continues to rise, this is mildly bullish and becomes very bullish if it can maintain this same correlation above 25. If Price is able to continue in its Discovery, the next psychological level to watch for is $110. However, if Price retreats from here then it will likely test $103.77 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $103.77.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by dailytaguy
A Few Notes for Crypto Winter First-TimersThe crypto market is in "free fall" today, as some of you may have heard. Decided to write something from the perspective of someone who's been through a few "crypto winters" over the last 8 years or so. mirror.xyz -- I feel like a million years old writing in this tone - though everyone in crypto knows that a week in this industry is equivalent to a year in “normal” time so being inside crypto-lala-land long enough does warp your sense of time. (The last few years of insanity in the world itself doesn’t help too, of course.) But it’s also true that I've been through 3 crypto bull/bear cycles at this point (I was in the ETH ICO in 14’ - divested most of it since then, for the record) and may have a useful perspective to some - not that these dips don't hurt, but I was relatively fortunate to have survived the last few ones through a combination of planning ahead and a few strokes of good luck. But I will say again what I say to almost everyone: crypto is a 3-4 year play at minimum, and you need to have the patience to wait at least that long. Life is short, yes; but at the same time it’s also very, very long. The first few hype cycles (14-16') I literally wasn't aware of anything because crypto was just an obscure, zany idea back then and people held them largely for fun. There were no exchanges - or ones you’d want to trust your money with, anyway. (Mt. Gox, yikes.) The easiest way to get Bitcoin was to mine them yourself or find some guy on the internet who you could exchange it with a pizza or some other type of bartering deal. My wallet was worth so little at the time that I forgot about it and almost lost my private key, in fact. 🤣 The second one (16-18') I worked "regular" jobs and did dollar cost averaging so I didn't have to touch my investments for day-to-day needs. I cashed out only when I needed it, for emergencies and unexpected expenses. My decision to sell was need-based, rather than speculation-based, in other words. (This one did really pay off and I wish more people would do it, honestly.) To prep for the "winter" today I've spent an excessive amount of time doing research on projects that are focused on utility and community-building…and re-allocated my portfolio accordingly. I may have made a few mistakes but after being burned a few times I think I’ve gotten better at picking assets that will survive for the longer-term. The market is still in free-fall so we'll see if that pays off. As a general observation, I’ve seen lots of projects go through problems that many would consider catastrophic - but survived out of sheer perseverance. There were a few projects started with great ambitions but eventually found success by finding and refining their niche. Finding product-market-fit isn’t easy - these things do take time to figure out, even on a human level. (You can see glimpses of potential future successes when people “buy the dip” during downturns - a sign that enough people care about the project to help it stay afloat.) I have never, however, seen a project start off as a money-making scheme then successfully “pivot” onto making something useful later. Like a song that people find catchy, projects usually start and end the same way; with the same chorus, and the same tone. If you’re still holding onto those hype coins, you may want to look at your portfolio a little closer this time because if the team isn’t actually working on anything serious there’s a good chance it will never come back up ever again. (Although I gotta say, the way Ethereum Classic was able to continue to scam people despite its protocol layer being completely compromised was impressive in its zombie-like way.) I gained a lot of respect for the Ethereum team during the last few drops because they seemed unconcerned and continued to do what they love - building tech. That and they had the support of a development community that genuinely cared about the product enough to keep it afloat during the “hard times” - the #1 resource of any project, in my opinion. But the hype of 20-21’ really brought in a lot of grifters into the ETH ecosystem and the gas-fee problem really toxified the culture there, which I think its unfortunate. (Bitcoin leaned hard into the scarcity model and might be beyond repair at this point.) We'll see if the bear market + Consensys/ETH2 merge will fix that - at this point implementing the tech itself should be a pretty straightforward process - but culture is much harder to fix once it goes sour. If people are hanging around each other solely because they think they might rich, when the money’s gone it doesn’t take very long before they start turning on each other. In both Bitcoin and Ethereum we saw the raw ugliness that came from the Proof-of-Work scarcity model - which incentivizes selfish and toxic behaviors in ways that even its founders couldn’t have anticipated. As Ethereum moves away from Proof-of-Work and into the worlds of Proof-of-Stake, is this the end of the Proof-of-Work era for crypto? Let us hope so. (The military dictatorship in El Salvador, which dared to make Bitcoin its reserve currency is in danger of defaulting now, by the way.) For the record, I own 0 Bitcoin - I sold them off a few years ago after seeing how they’ve basically given up on making any meaningful improvements on the protocol itself - gated off by an off-chain governance process controlled by a small group of miners out there. If you’re comfortable with that setup by all means, but hope you at least understand what you’re getting yourself into. -- What Comes Next? Interest Rates and Proof-of-Stake -- Last time it was Crypto Kitties, this time it was Bored Apes - in a weird way the way we talked about crypto tech hadn't really evolved much since then - probably why 2021 became the era of the (adjective)-(animal) NFTs, rather than a triumph for humanity itself. Web3 was supposed to be about scalable partnerships, not about cattle auctions of imaginary animals - but somehow we all collectively missed the point of why the technology was created to begin with. Some ideas in Web3 that I think still has some long-term potential: "useful" Proof-of-Work , Proof-of-Storage , the metaverse , DAOs, Proof-of-Identity , decentralized video , and of course, NFTs - after it becomes more “useful” to everyone. What these projects all have in common, though, is that they’re not quite production ready and are all in their alpha/beta stages right now. Great potential and great upside? Yes - still, yes. Are we there yet? No - not even close. Despite the hype, the tech behind crypto and Web3 systems haven’t evolved that much in the last few years - mostly because Web3’s biggest issue right now isn’t technical, it’s organizational/cultural: for the blockchain to have any use, the community needs to convince everyday businesses and people to adopt practices like ledger validations, using wallets for building social profiles, trackable and authoritative reputation/action/credit scores, etc. - all which are doable now on a technical level, but needs the cooperation of multiple organizations working in tandem with each other. Since crypto doesn’t deal with physical assets directly, it needs to validate itself through the utility of a service that is actually tangible to the average person out there. Most of that involves bridging social/cultural/industrial divides that Web2 companies never dared to cross. There’s a lot to be unlearned first before we can move onto the next phases of the crypto experiment itself. For now, though, there’s one obvious “utility” that I’ve been saving for last - interest rates from staking rewards. What makes this crypto cycle different from the others is that fiat systems and many government institutions around the globe are in big trouble this year: Bitcoin/crypto was “invented” sometime after 08’ as a direct response to the economic crisis then - but has largely existed in a 0% interest rate environment up until now. When interest rates start going up in fiat - possibly to 1970s levels, even - we have no idea how the coins themselves are going to respond. As the federal reserve continues to increase interest rates in response to inflation (they have no choice at this point), the general public’s attention will undoubtedly shift from a speculative mindset to a savings-based one - as it typically happens during recessionary times. Mortgage and loan rates have undoubtedly risen, but the banks have been slow to offer higher savings rates to people as a whole. Who’s actually paying out interest rates right now? Crypto. If the banks continue to drag its feet, coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos, Ethereum , Algorand, even Cardano) actually have a real competitive advantage to what fiat is offering right now. One number is higher than the other number - it’s pretty straightforward and an easier sell than trying to get people to buy animal jpgs, honestly. If crypto adapts faster than the banks do this year, this may actually when people finally begin to see the “utility” behind the technology itself. -- A Fork-in-the-Road - Which Do You Choose? -- 22’ is likely going to be an insane year for more reasons than one: we’re going to face economic, social, and political turmoil all at the same time, with crypto mixed into that chaos somewhere in the middle. But a reminder that money is relative - a market crash isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the result is cheaper goods on your money, and visa versa. The truth is that most people have been losing money every year even during these “good times” - the feeling of numbers getting higher in your bank account means nothing if the goods you pay for is rising higher than what you earn. So we already know that holding fiat is already a loss, and the one thing that made it worth it - stocks and housing - is about to tumble now, too. Crypto doesn’t need to be perfect, in other words: all it needs to do is prove itself better than fiat, which, in theory, shouldn’t be too hard to do as the Bernie Madoff 2.0s start emerging in the wake of a growth market gone sour. Whether or not crypto will go up or down during the recession this year has been a long-standing debate within the crypto community, and only time will tell which way it will go. But there’s basically two different ways to look at it - When the economy goes into a recession, so will crypto, because: - Buyers of crypto and stocks are more overlapped than not, and the two asset classes have historically always moved in parallel. - The idea that Bitcoin/crypto is a hedge against inflation has not panned out as hoped. - During recessions when budgets become tighter, people are less likely to put money into speculative assets, like crypto. - Crypto existed in a 0% interest rate environment for the most part and if you take that away, so will the momentum behind it as well. Or - when the economy goes into a recession, crypto will go up, because: - Total crypto adoption is ~10% of the world, at best. Still lots of room to grow. - Crypto adoption tends to be higher in countries with severe inflation - the loss of confidence in the banking and financial systems (which is happening already) often forces people to consider alternatives. - Staking rewards currently offer more interest than the banks and will be very appealing to some people as they shop around for competitive interest rates. - Bitcoin was created in 08’ financial crisis as a response to the problems leading up to it, so the emotional response to the next downturn will likely be more pro-crypto than not. So there’s a fork in the road here, and people HODLing crypto right now will have to make a choice regarding which path they want to take. I suggest that people take a hard look at their portfolio in the upcoming months and think about what they’re comfortable with and how they think things will unfold over the course of the next few years. The good news is that regardless of what happens, the inflation-fueled 1970s era was known for a lot of structural uncertainty but it was also the period of good music/art and great social change - something that I think will be a boon to the long-term health of the NFT markets as a whole. I get that we live in a very anti-social era right now, but at the end of the day, crypto is money, and money is about people. You can’t make real money unless you make some effort at understanding how people think. There’s plenty of reasons to think that the industry will do well in the long run, but it will take a lot of work to get there. If the community puts in the work, it will succeed because the opportunity is still definitely there - if not, it will fail. It’s pretty simple, really. Good luck and good fortune, folks. If you need me, I’ll be working on my next project, Teia Surf, in building the types of incentive structures that had always been the dream of Web3. As a lot of the veterans of the crypto industry would say - the best time to build, is now. 🤞🍀
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
No Bearish Volume WEEKLYJust to check again, after this month's CPI report, I looked at the Weekly chart & there's STILL no Bearish Volume. Whales are accumulating HODLing & REMOVING coins from exchanges. If you DCA NOW might be your chance to get your stack however you do so, whether through a shopping app, exchange or P2P. Not FA, but if you ever want a whole Bitcoin now is your chance. Should you wait for lower? Perhaps if we've blasted through 28K support below 2020 levels we may see lower. Will you DCA at 20K? 15K? Or will you flee back to the safety of dinosaur dollars?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoQue
BTC/USDWhy is this a buyer's market? 1. Moving averages in the past were bought (200MA, 300MA) 2. Everyone is looking at 200MA. This can break down also. 3. Great support at 13-16k if capitulation is not over at 24k levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next will analyze RSI to spot rare occasions to DCA Bitcoin. This analysis is for long-term investors not for traders. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a plan and respect it until making profits. Emotions always will fool human beings. Mindset + Patience = Succes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptoforevery1