DXY - BTC correlation Looking forthe dollar to get stronger here in the next few weeks which would contribute to the crypto market finally bottoming out.
March will be a pivotal month, thinking is when the bottom will come.
Bearmarket
Great Bear of 22/23 Ain't Over: Fat Lady Didn't Sing YetReal simple idea. All the Happy enthusiastic FOMO and BTFD tech stonks still trading at 700x PE. All Happy BS.
You BTFD here you gonna get a nasty surprise, surprise, surprise. This monthly view shows where RSI goes in a real Bear.
NB: U R HERE... U R NEXT! This won't happen overnight, it will be a painfull grind with some terrific knifedowns.
Real Bears last for >500 days. Y2K Dot-Com was >900 days. Great Finance Crisis was 17 months, >500 days. Now at day 400.
BIggest Bear in history to follow longest Bull run ever. Stonks went up for 12 years with a few correections.
Big reset is overdue, 2/3 of the reset comes in last 1/3 of the Bear. Final move coming soon if so.
Get ready to get skeered. Worst still yet to come imo. We neeed VIX >40 and capitulation, panic selling to call bottom.
Long TL points at 3200. We will see. Next 90 days gonna be an amazing ride if this idea is on target. GLTA
Ugly reversalTop chat in the weekly time, bottom chart in the daily timeframe,. Looks that price is heading to the $47 support level. It may drop to the bottom of the channel but the energy sector still strong. I take profit at 47, then I'll see.
BITCOIN to 12k zone. SHORTWe are starting the fifth and final wave for BTC, this pump was just a retracement. Bitcoin 10k to 12k target is still likely. Recession is just starting, we have a whole more year of bearish market. NFA
BTCUSDT Correction development scenario of bear market terminusBTC just made a pullback to neckline of the major Head and Shoulders formation on macro. Now, the price action is abandoning the distributive structure with weak volume, due to a micro H&S.
Points of interest
We can see on this chart levels to be watch in a potential swing downward. BTC has been trading in a choppy structure, consolidating within a ending diagonal. The potential drawdown till FEB close tends to be form a monthly bearish Harami candlestick pattern, which is highly reliable on higher timeframes.
This pattern can be consider highly reliable. A Harami bearish just play out on the last weekly close (1W) and tends to be form on 1M, in which is a rare case. In bear markets, this pattern is an important reversal signal after a rally of relief, indicating an intermediary point for an 2nd and final swing leg-down. On this chart, you can see that the potential throw-over of actual consolidation (choppy structure / breakout of Harami) is in confluence w/ a expected final swing leg-down of an expanding ending diagonal.
BTCUSDT Potential Harami bearish on 1MA Harami bearish, candlestick reversal pattern, is about to occur on 1M chart twice after the All-Time-High event. If this projected drawdown plays out. This indicate a strong bearish signal. Harami is highly reliable in bearmarkets, in which pattern is a signal of top price. A Harami bearish just played on 1W chart. This replication on monthly chart will signal potential lower low, i.e. the bottom 15k of moonbois is nothing but a dream.
Greater timeframe, greater reliability.
The micro price action is performing like a final phase (E) of distribution pattern of Wyckoff method.
Now, on hourly chart, we can see a Head and Shoulders top formation targeting local demand. Also, an Alternate Bat harmonic pattern can occur, projecting price more drawdown, as we can see on chart.
Abandoned Baby bearish candlestick pattern is also performing on H4.
Oscillator Fisher Transform bearish.
Elliot Wave Method ]
Bitcoin seems to be ready to ride a route-off of this choppy bear market, as in a turn-point to made the 5th wave of an expanding ending diagonal, in which a bearish impulsive wave can occurs to throw-over this broadening wedge structure. This indicate potential lower low.
According to my wave count, Bitcoin is about to accomplish this actuall supercycle, making a wave 4 of an expanding ending diagonal, in which one more supercycle may complete this potential pattern, which a new ATH can surpass 200k. The 5th wave of the ending diagonal, which will be the next bullrun supercycle to complete the wave I of the Grand Supercycle, don't needs to touch the upper trend-line. For the validation of this pattern, the bottom of this actuall bearmarket needs to be accomplished, completing wave 4. Then, the shape of the channel will be definetly drew. If this market respect Elliot Wave rules, a severe bearmarket will occurs to made the Wave II of Grand Supercycle.
From a chart pattern perspective, this peak can be consider a pullback to Head and Shoulders neckline in confluence with the back-test to anchored VWAP from ATH. Indicating turn-point.
Fibonacci
Historically, In all corrections, BTC retraced either 88.6% of the same measured Fibonacci retracement, decreasing more than 80% in it's price from each new all-time-high. As we can see applied on this chart, a drawdown either 50% can be expected.
Pivot levels
Stablished pivot levels from the sum of HH+HL+Close:3 from the choppy sectors selected. in a fractal manner, the pivot level is a potential area of interest to re-entry. The price can shakeout in this range due to the anchored VWAP from candle of 13-Jun'22 reaction, thus I've pinpoint these levels to be watched.
Harrmonic pattern prediction
In prediction, a Partizan 2.4 harmonic pattern can be formed on this speculative bottom region, lead price above to 40k supply region.
BTCUSD Pullback to Neckline Accomplished. 50% drawdown expectedSigns of reversal, market structure choppy. Flat correction in consecutive double three zig-zags on the upper boundary of a macro diagonal after an complete impulsive wave; lower highs with decrease of volume, showing lack of confidence by the buyers-side, as shown on Weis Wave Volume indicator; overbought condition.
Harmonic patterns: potential bearish Crab leading to supply. If price action don't reach this area breaking volume POC, a least a back-test to VWAP from the higher high can be occur, leading by an 3-Drives pattern. High possibility of a POC back-test @ preferencial 14,6% Fibonacci retracement zone. Plus AB=CD bearish projection leading to the micro demand zone.
Strong hidden bearigh divergence on CCI oscillator.
Short position swing perspective: if price broke weekly pivot level @ 21009 with strength, possible intermediary target @ 18229 support. The price can retrace to the pivot.
MACRO
Weekly price action: the price made a strong bearish candlestick pattern Harami Cross.
The price is trading in a broadening structure like a ending diagonal formation.
Weekly scenario: price pulled back to neckline from the major Head and Shoulders back-testing the VWAP from ATH. In a potential fractal from the 1st test of this VWAP, in which the same Harami Cross performed in an overbought condition, showing that a strong supply was reached.
In addiction to the fractals, I've selected the local choppy structure and calculated the pivots by the sum of high+low+close:3, resulting in a key level exposed, in which price retraces before continue the decline in an impulsive bearish leg-Down.
Expectation: possible lower low if a throw-over occurs in a breaking of the expanding diagonal structure. this can be lead price to touch the same 88,6% Fibonacci level as occurred historically in all corrections. Therefore, a drawndown of 50% to the 11k level seems strongly possible,
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Bitcoin is about to complete it's first Wave 1 Grand Super Cycle bull run, in which actual point seems to be forming a ending diagonal of 5th impulse wave.
Google - Bearish SentimentPrice broke structure at 100.29 to create equal highs at 107.84. Then price gave us a BEARISH GAP to take out ORDERS at 102.09. The BEARISH GAP that was created must be filled before price can drop significantly.
I expect price to fill the BEARISH GAP and take out the EQUAL HIGHS at 107.84. The 113 price point is where price will go. From there a major dip will happen. This will take out the ENGINEERED LIQUIDITY ($).
I am EXTREMELY BEARISH on Google!!!
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Price action is KING!!
Still very bearish and not bottomed in yet.. it’s not overHit 24K but made into a Resistance.
Most people said bitcoin is bottomed.. no not quite. The bear market isn’t over, tell you why and bitcoin will still be volatile and the big problem of liquidity.
The Feds are still raising interest rates and best part inflation is cooling down but don’t celebrate way too early because back to bulls .. bulls aren’t back yet; if bulls are back then would hit over 35K.
Since more jobs are in but more hiring would cause further rate hikes, and inflation are still high but still will take time.
The war is coming between china and US as well since the spy balloon had taken down.
The bottom I see still about 10K around there. If not then 12-14K is the bottom; the bear market retrace is still going.. don’t get too greedy.
SP500 - Risk to reverse downwards.TBH I dont think this will hold, Could be confirmation bias but everything looks like it, Its a bullflag on the 15m above support but something tells me that we will drop. lower high on daily RSI aswell, Inflation stats next week.
Will we hold the decending trendline? How far will we correct?
Monthly BTC Crossing The Zero lagg MACD has been an amazing indicator for me. The last 3 months have been amazing to watch the bullish track. This could be the change of direction in the bear market that signifies the low in the $15k's was the lowest. We sit at -12045 for the MACD and the EMA for the MACD sits at -8573. If I see a crossing here and then a confirmation on the RSI which right now sits at 46.11 and the RSI SMA sits at 46.65. They are close, are we at the last leg of this bear market marathon or do we have more to go. Let's see if the thing happen that need to happen.
XRP/USDT AnalysisAs my analysis XRP has came close to the strong support as it shown here. Looks like it is bouncing back a little, but other major coins (ETH, BNB etc.) are forming up massive bearish channels. In my opinion, if XRP follow other cryptos and dips below the support, it will open up big short opportunities. So watch out this one!
Binance Coin/USDT (BNB/USDT) AnalysisFor the past few weeks whole market has been green all the way. But recently it is forming up bearish channel /patterns (ETH, MATIC, RUNE etc). For BNB it has formed up clean bearish channel which you could see here. For my analysis, BNB and many other cryptos could face big drop in coming few days! Watch out!
RUNE/USDT AnalysisFor the past few weeks whole market has been green all the way. But recently it is forming up bearish channel/patterns (ETH, BNB, MATIC etc). For RUNE it has formed up clean bearish channel which you could see here. For my analysis, RUNE could face big drop in coming few days! Watch out!
EURAUD 4HHey traders, in today's trading session i'm are monitoring EURAUDT for a selling opportunity around 1.57292 zone, once I will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
GBPAUD 4HHey traders, in today's trading session i'm are monitoring GBPAUD for a selling opportunity around 1.74463 zone, once I will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
SP500 CORRECTION 2023After one extensive analysis of volume, indicators, supports, resistances, Fibonacci, and more.
We could spect that the SPY CORRECT UNTIL $320.
AUS SPI 200 - 2010 to 2011Aussie SPI 200 is following a somewhat similar market to the 2010 to 2011 market, indicated here in in blue.
BTCUSD Pullback to Neckline AccomplishedPrice action pulled back to the dynamic neckline resistance from the major Head and Shoulders in formation. From the chart pattern perspective, this phase can considered a important turn-point, which psychological terms can rise interests for the bearish-side and growth of bearishness of market. In addiction, retroactive Fibonacci retracement potential fractal suggest a 88.6% targe in decline to fill in confluence to the potential double-down correction from this H&S. Classical short setup. In addiction, a strong reaction by buyers HODLers can be expected in a potential bounce from the Anchored VWAP of 2018 low, which is a strong area of interest / equilibrium to fill. If the price breaks-down the demand, a new phase of bearish leg-downwards / collapse can plays-out, which will lead us to a capitulate.
Found a good short oppPrice was just rejected off the important resistance previous support. It may try to test it again but there is too much resistance to the upside.
QQQ Pump & Dump Idea Just Speculation... only because I think the Markets haven't finished this Correction---Bull to Bear set-up Idea : current Cup and Handle Short Squeeze rip to $290 area then Drop....
because of: Bad Earnings Season... Seasonal Market Movement in line with current dates , Fed Manipulation....etc
Is the Carnage over? Have We Bottomed or are we going down for final leg?
Thoughts?
If BTC really goes to 12k, we are F****DThis looks really bad now. I thought that we would enter a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, but Bitcoin's continued weakness let's me fear for a worst-case scenario.
There is still time and we could get lucky for a Wyckoff pattern, but should BTC really go lower, it is likely that we would visit the 12k area.
Many people would then think: Awesome, cheap coins ! This is excellent ! I will buy cheap coins and then Bitcoin will make new All-time highs after the next halving.
But wait !
From a technical perspective, this is really bad if Bitcoin goes really so low. It basically breaks all important support levels, and this would mean that the entire runup from
2010 until 2022, has been a completed 5-Wave Eliott structure.
And that would mean that we would get a huge ABC correction, where the A wave goes to 12k, and consequently the C wave would go much lower, to around 2k. Sounds insane,
but that is what would happen from a technical perspective.
The B wave would go to around 40k, and people would be really optimistic again, we would see lots of "CCMF" and laser eyes, and whatnot, but in reality it would just be a bounce.
And this would also coincide for when I think the real recession will come: Normally it starts about 6-12 months after the FED pivot. The FED is expected to pivot in Q1 2023.
Thus, we would see the start of the real bearmarket in early 2024. THis in turn means, that there would not be a new alltime high for the Bitcoin Halving. Yes, sure, some coins would
pump nicely, but we would not get the typical super mania phase where many many coins pump like crazy.
On the right side I drew ETHUSD, which did something very similar a few years ago. The structure is very similar, and I think that this is what BTC would do.
But of course I still hope that my previous idea will be the correct one, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Then we would soon see a bounce to 25k and the final spring at around 16k.
Let's hope for that scenario, because the 12k scenario would mean quite a few years of brutal bearmarket.
$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021.
Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
