EUR/AUD: Continue of the downtrend; bearish signal!!!In this analysis in H8 timeframe, it's so beautiful just to find down a good profit in Forex. So, I have calculated that EUR/AUD it's going to down toward the $1.54 AUD. So, that will be not good for the Euro.
So, I follow the trend, that always it's my friend.
Daily chart it's so bearish too!!!
In the past, EUR/AUD was into this bullish channel and then, was break down in weekly chart and we starting a new bearish trend if you trade in intraday maybe in H4 timeframe it's very good.
And looking in monthly tiimeframe, I see that EUR/AUD it's more bearish and we can to see in the future down price toward the $1.43 AUD
If you like this analysis, you can to share my analysis with your friends, traders and more and have any plan and idea of this short position.
Remember: I'm more enfocous in the world of cryptocurrency, but in sometimes I make technical analysis in commodities, index and Forex, my own pars to trade. But I trade more cryptocurrency becuase I believe that I'm so speciality in it. And not just in the volatile market that I'm a crack make analysis on Bitcoin or Ethereum, maybe I can to trade in other volatile market like stocks, gold, silver and others. But yes, I like and love to trade Forex to know the situation of the central bank, interest rate and know the sitation of the rest of economies. I like Forex after of trade cryptocurrencies. Because I'm so fan on cryptocurrencies to trade and it's one of my first market to trade and most prefered.
So, in summary we see a bearish trend and I see that EUR/AUD it's going to down. I put a sell order limit at $1.5748 AUD with a SL at $1.5810 AUD or 60 pips and my targe will be $1.5434 AUD or 315 pips.
Bearishtrend
Gold Analysis - Positional short say no to gold investment for next 3-4 years
gradually start investments @38000 - 40000 levels
don't fall in trap with buy trade sell on rise is the best strategy for gold next 3 years
I am telling this not only based on charts there are other factors involved in it
Based on Technical analysis and research with other macro and micro factor stay away from it or just short it
Thank me later
Bitcoin show a bearish flag simetric triangle!!! Short PositionToday, Bitcoin still bearish in H1 timeframe and we see that the trend it's going to make a reversal. So, I'm still in short position until the $17,020 USD. You can to put your short position entry in the market price with a SL at $17,800 USD and a target profit will be $13,400 USD.
As we se in H1, we are into this bearish chartist pattern of continuation of the trend; in that case it's turn bearish in intraday
So, at the moment, we can to form any chartist pattern, but remember that as we broke down the support key in H4, we found out that Bitcoin it
s weakness!!!
Euro/U.S. Dollar: Shoulder Head Shoulder (Bearish)Today, we see a sell pressure in the Euro!!!
We see in H4 or H1 timerame a formation of the next chartist pattern!!! It's a Shoulder Head Shoulder Bearish pattern.
Euro form a bearish channel in Daily timeframe as the supply continue. So guys, we could see a good short opportunity
So, in H1 I hope a short entry with price action confirmation between $1.1847-$1.1859 price levels.
And also, I add my previously technical analysis to get it this analysis as updated for you!!!
XAUUSD Short: 4HR Analysis I typically trade Gold on 1HR & below but this 4HR set up caught my eye
Confluences:
- Rising Wedge
- Clear Downtrend
- At an area of resistance
- Trend Meets Resistance
Ways to Enter:
Conservative: Wait for price to close below that last area of support (1901.251) then enter.
Aggressive: Have a sell limit at resistance area or sell once price reaches resistance area.
LIKE, COMMENT, and FOLLOW
*tell me what you think of the idea and tell me if you took it :)*
Interesting Data: Australian Dollar/ New Zealand DollarHello, in this little analysis of macro-trend on monthly timeframe, we see the weakness of the Australia Dollar and I estimated that we are in the descendent triangle, that is a bearish chartist and then, we continue bearish from the year 2011, that cause an Australia's economical reccesion.
So, our target and objective that we could to see is the $0.87 NZD
That data could be intersting!!!
Euro/Sterling Pound in the re-distribution micro-trendAt the moment of this analysis, we continue in sell Euro, so, very important is that tomorrow there will be a news of German Retail Sales, that news could be impact in the Euro.
Now, looking the graphics, we see a formation of descendent triangle in H1 timeframe.
So, my objective of this operation is just find down 40 pips with 22 pips of SL.
Now, dont recall that Germany for the past days could be to imapct in the Euro, but nor much to see it a 100 pips of 1 candlestick, but yes a impact important, now generally the trend is bearish, dont recall it.
So, tomorrow morning I will going to check the same pars, except the US Dollar/ Swiss Ffrank, because obviously the US Dollar is up so lot in this par near of 100 pips, I ibelieve that is another signal as Australian Dollar that they both needs to make a correction to continue their trends.
EURUSD - Potentially A Major Shorting OpportunityBackground: The current bearish cycle commenced in February 2018 and it is still intact and has some way to go. In the short term it had some very messy sharp up and down swings, however, it is very likely that it has resumed a longer term bearish trend – see previously published chart in January 2018 lined below.
Fundamentally , like most economies, Europe too has lots of cross currents which are likely to impact relative strength of EURO Vs USD, such as:
a. The fall out from the impact of Covid-19
b. Political differences within the bloc might become more pronounced.
c. In addition the Brexit negotiation which must conclude by end of Dec 2020 might not go well in the prevailing backdrop of negative social mood when disagreements are more likely.
Summary of some of the technical:
1. Monthly - Please see chart below in the update
a. EURUSD topped in July 2008 and has been in clear bearish channel.
b. Since 16th February 2018, it is potentially developing a double zigzag of which the second zigzag probably commenced on 9th March 2020.
c. Since February 2018, the RSI has remained well below 50% on any attempts to rally.
d. If it forms similar price action to that in Sept 2000 – February 2002, then it might decline towards 1.000 (Parity).
2. Weekly - Please see chart below in the update
a. In the very choppy up and down moves from Dec 2019, the price has failed to overcome structural resistance around 1.150 in proximity of bearish 200 period weekly MA, whilst
forming a double top along with RSI remaining below 50%.
b. June spike high appear to have some time symmetry of high to high of 50 weekly bars.
3. Daily - Please see the main chart
a. A sharp decline from 9th March was retraced by 88.6% which is in proximity of 200 weekly MA and declining trend channel, whilst RSI remain below 60 (RSI range of 50 -60 is
considered bearish resistance zone).
b. A break below 1.1160 would help confirm the continuation of bearish trend and opportunity for a short entry with possible move towards 1.1 – 1.09 area and longer term towards
1.05.
4. Point & Figure Chart – Please see chart below in the update
Initially downside target of 1.103
5. COT Data – Please see chart below in the update
a. At the June high the Open Interest was much lower than that which accompanied the March spike high. Even though the price was not that far off. This suggests that during the
run up from May low, most of it was due to short covering.
b. Net long position by Non-Commercials (Large Speculators) and Non-Reportable (Small Speculators) are at relative extreme not seen since May 2018, which might have to cover on
price weakness. Their Net long positions are as follows:
i. Large Speculators Net long by 118,448
ii. And Small Speculators Net Long by 44,092
Conclusion: Longer term bearish breakdown of the consolidation is anticipated. Use your own method of entry and trade management. Suggested entry could be upon:
1. A clear breakdown below 1.1160 would help confirm the resumption of downtrend and offer short entry.
2. Initial downside target could be around 1.1 – 1.09 area and secondary target around 1.06
3. Invalidation would be a close above 1.140 and more specifically 1.150
Caution: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
15/06/2020At the time I charted this but never published, it was a possible bearish set up. Now I am publishing it, it seems more the likely option to play out.
The purple trend lines drawn are weekly and daily S/R. The dotted white lines, more recently added to the chart and also S/R.
The MA lines shown are: 21MA in red, 50MA in yellow, 100MA in purple and 200MA in white. This would be a longer term trade set-up with possible profit targets along the way in the event of a major drop as Bitcoin looks to more and more correlated with the stock market at the minute, which I fully expect to have a bad week ahead.
I hope the chart explains itself but I have added the extra details needed to understand the expectations.
Using this set-up, the targets pointed out on the MA's and S/R, could also be used for a bullish set-up trade, if taken as intended.
NOT TRADING ADVICE AND DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Thanks!
EURUSD: Thought ProcessThis is an update on the previous post I shared on EUR/USD, with a detailed explanation of the thought process.
In this chart we have a bearish trending market as the root cause of a 3.6% decline in prices. A bearish trending market is defined by lower lows and lower highs.
A red sloping diagonal line highlights the bearish trending market by connecting the lower highs, which gives visualisation of a descending angle, confirming the downtrend.
When looking for a trading opportunity, we want to trade in the direction of the trend. More often then not, prices will continue to trade in the direction of the trend rather then reverse, with the exception of when a major demand level is present.
Traders who have missed an initial swing low in a downtrend, is provided with an opportunity to ride the trend on a pullback. In such cases traders look to enter between a 38.2-61.8% fibonacci retracements.
38.2%, 50% & 61.8% is the fibonacci retracement levels that are most often used and these are the levels that most often hold.
These levels are also plotted on the chart, using the fibonacci retracement tool as black horizontal lines.
Simple does it, but is this enough to provide a clear trading opportunity?
In order for us to increase probability of success while mitigating the potential risk, we have added a twist to our trend trading philosophy with advanced pattern formations.
The highlighted pattern shows a bearish bat pattern. Advanced pattern formations can be a very reliable signal, because of the quantified measurements. Every pattern consists of a potential reversal zone or PRZ. The PRZ for this bat pattern consists of the obligatory 88.6% (XA) retracement, a 161.8% (AB) extension and a symmetric 100% (abc) projection. These are highlighted as blue lines. Usually we want to look for an alternate ab=cd pattern within bat patterns, but its still a valid set-up with resistance at ab=cd, some would call this a Gartley.
We can see that the PRZ has a lot of confluence. Not only is the PRZ on its own a cluster of fibonacci levels, indicating a major resistance level, the sloping diagonal line confirms the pattern with 50% retracement of a previous swing within the trend which shows more confluence within the PRZ. This is a strong signal. I am expecting the downtrend to continue, down to atleast 161.8% of the bat pattern at 1.054 or a 160 pip decline from current prices.
Waiting for the trade to play out. I am risk free after having booked partial profits once price hit the previous traded lows at 1.065.
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Thank you for reading
May God bless
EURCHF Sell IdeaW1 - Currently we have a bearish trend so until the bullish divergence is created we may expect this trend to continue.
D1 - Price broke below the bottom of the triangle pattern, we also have clear trend supported by MACD and RSI.
H4 - We have no opposite divergence, bearish trend pattern.
H1 - Bearish trend pattern, we may now look for pullbacks and sells with bearish evidences.