CHD - Bearish Move Looking To ContinueChurch & Dwight has been in a descending channel since early September immediately following a bearish divergence signal. The slow stochastic is showing that the stock may be getting ready to roll over again at the bearish resistance line of the channel.
The last time this stock began to pull back with the RSI & Stochastics at this level, the stock did not pull back enough to become oversold. It is possible the stock will not fall down to the support line so always be ready for a shallow move. The channel is the play until it no longer holds one way or the other.
Bearishdivergence
UJ weekly outlookWelcome to a weekly outlook on USDJPY.
Here we are going to come up with a clear picture using my personal experience with technical analysis.
I have spend countless of hours looking at charts, trying to come up with a reason for price movements. For a long time I thought, if you had the ability to forecast the markets, it would automatically turn you into a profitable trader
It took me years of effort, but I've spend all this time only to find out that I was completely wrong and have been wasting my time, since I never wanted to become a technical analyst. I wanted to be a trader.
Being able to forecast charts has absolutely nothing to do with trading. And I have happened to learn it the hard way, which was totally unnecessary in order to reach my initial goal and dreams which was becoming profitable in the markets, not by chance, but by technical analysis.
It's a fact that most technical analysts do not trade their own charts or make their money trading. They simply deliver the analysis and the trading team will make their own decisions, based on that particular analysis.
When I first heard of that, I couldn't believe what I was hearing. It just didn't make sense in my head, why would they not be able to trade their own analysis. Now I finally understand why. Because one thing is being able to analyze a chart, another thing is to trade it. Most people simply focus on trading strategies, but they are missing two of the three components there is to trading.
1: is a trading strategy, which is what everyone focuses on.
2: is a trade execution plan, knowing exactly when and why to get both in & out
3: is a risk management plan, knowing exactly which position size you are taking and how much risk you are willing to put on.
Now there are 4 ways to manage risk:
You accept
You mitigate
You eliminate
You transfer
In trading we have to first: accept the risk and then mitigate the risk.
We do this by simply keeping our position size to a maximum of 1%. By doing this we are safe if spikes would occur or if any news related event happen to go against us.
Not only do we keep our position size to 1%, we also make sure our stop loss value is equal to 1% of our capital.
We are giving ourself a 100 shots before we need to reload or deposit more money into the account.
Now by winning more then we are losing, we have basically rigged the game.
What you are looking at is a descending triangle. Typically descending triangles is a continuation pattern, which means they mostly occur in a downtrend for descending triangles and in an uptrend for ascending triangles.
When a descending triangle occurs in a uptrend it is no longer considered as a continuation pattern but as a trend reversal pattern.
Divergence also show prices rising on falling momentum, which is generally a sign that the buyers are not willing to pay higher prices for the particular asset.
Smart money is fading out.
Now I like to base my trading decisions on strong support/resistance levels. I use fibonacci retracements, extensions and projections to find these levels.
Usually I like to see a move equal to or larger then 50% projection, and look for a pullback towards 11% projections. I have found price react best to these set-up, which makes up the best low-risk high probability trading set-ups.
Thank you for reading the analysis
Dont forget to like the chart
All support appreciated and needed, please keep it coming.
God bless and happy holidays
History is a guide, NKE needs to dropFrom Nike's history we see that almost all gaps get filled on this stock. Three randomly chosen shaded horizontal rectangles represent three gaps (there are many more) that all got filled eventually. Recently price action has been "sloppy" with wide gaps being made which will surely be filled sooner or later, there is also one at 84.83 which I have labeled which never got filled. Further we see that a recent Cup and Handle that has formed has almost reached it's target price in the low 98s and I will probably be shorting there unless there is strong volume supporting any move higher. Last but not least from the angled trend lines we see relatively string divergence indicating that institutional investors are more likely than not disposing of the stock. Earnings on Dec. 19th will be interesting. Please leave any comments or ask questions.
Small-Caps May Be Set For Pull BackThe iShares S&P Small-Cap ETF has been in a bearish wedge pattern on its daily chart since early October. The price is once again testing the resistance line. The price is near an overbought condition while generating a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator.
I am targeting the support line of this wedge pattern first. If the price is able to break down through that support line then I will look at the $80.30 price level noted on the chart.
Home Depot Bearish Divergence Playing OutHD weekly chart had a bearish RSI divergence. The stock started breaking down on November 18th & has broken down through the support trendline this week as it nears the first potential pullback level.
There is a lot of call activity in this name today in the January 3, 2020, $230 calls.
AUDCHF Sell IdeaW1 - Bearish hidden divergence, RSI trend line breakout
D1 - Uptrend line breakout, last divergence was bearish regular.
H4 - Bearish divergence, most recent trend line breakout, also the previous swing low was broken creating lower lows.
We may now look for pullbacks and sells with more bearish evidences.
S&P500 Divergence (A Setup)On weekly timeframe, bearish Divergence formed.
However trend is still very bullish.
Thus will be waiting for a close back into the channel to trigger short,
Or to draw a new channel on a 1 or 4Hr timeframe to short upon breaking of trendline.
Might take 4-5 months to playout
A grade setup as it is on a weekly timeframe.
Clear and concise divergence
GBPAUD Sell IdeaW1 - Price reached the top of the channel.
D1 - Price reached an important resistance zone formed by the fibonacci levels of the waves we have and the top of the W1 channel, bearish divergence.
H4 - Bearish divergence, until the critical zone holds we may look for bearish setups with more bearish evidences in order to join the bears.