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Bearishdivergence

BTC - D1/H4 - 38.2 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT @ 42'894 !D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered for the first time a closing level above the clouds with an intraday high @ 42'411, not far away of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 42'894, which is the next significant resistance level after 40'000. So what next, now ? Despite this sharp recovery since over the last couple of days from a low below 30'000, the BTC remains, for the time being, still in a broad downtrend, meaning still below the Daily downtrend line resistance (in red on the chart); interesting to note that this important resistance level coincides roughly with the level of the 38.2% Fib ret above mentioned !!! Looking at the RSI indicator which is currently above the 70.00 (72.36), it looks a little bit tired... today's and upcoming price action should be watch at very carefully. H4 : This time frame is showing a rising wedge pattern in progress, couple with a RSI double bearish divergence which already triggered a downside correction. Watch 40'371-40'234 as first support area ahead of 39'560 (KS) and rising wedge support line; a failure to stay and hold sustainably above 39'500 would confirm a top in place in opening the door for lower levels towards the H4 clouds support zone, currently around 37'300-35'000) On the upside, a breakout of the former high @ 42'411 would directly put the focus on 42'894 ahead of 47'095 Watch also Chikou (lagging span) on D1, currently in the middle of the clouds (41'705) as an upside breakout of the clouds would also give more support for further upside. Finally, watch also shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to detect early signs of trend reversals and last but not least watch the clouds and Mid Bollinger Band on each time frame you are looking at :-) Have a nice weekend. And if you find my analysis as a good added value for you, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 on your following list. Take care and have fun. Best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
Amazon (also) Appears to be in Wycoffian DistributionThe main chart has the Wycoffian distribution spelled out and if you want to check it against the criterion you can follow the link below, hit ctrl-f and search for "Distribution: Wyckoff Events" and you will be right there. Not everything is annotated, the chart would be way too cluttered. school.stockcharts.com www.ltg-trading.com As it stands I am still waiting for my entry to buy some OTM puts( I do have some SPXU and SQQQ calls that are going well but I don't feel the stress is worth it). Very often when the price breaks through the ice there is a low volume rally to the ice, or at the lower end of the ice range and that gives you the best chance for an entry into an impulsive move. In other words almost any continuation pattern around the ice should have a high probability of breaking down bearishly and any bearish patterns (like rising wedges) are definitely bearish. On the weekly chart we clearly see that the price action has been rangebound almost straight sideways but the On Balance Volume itself and the EMAS have been trending downward with the 20EMA bearishly over the 10. What remains to be seen is if the 100 OBV EMA will hold the OBV or the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs. If the obv EMAs stack fully bearishly then the price will look like a cat swiped it off the table. We can also see that the MACD has a lot of bearish divergence as well as the MACD histogram. The MTF VSTOP reinforces the trend as being bearish by providing resistance that is automatically and dynamically drawn, so I can't mess it up. The monthly chart below confirms that the ice isn't some random price action I observed, it was the long term VSTOP support. Back testing the chart shows that when the MTF VSTOP gets broken on the monthly we can expect some wicking below the 20 period SMA. Likewise, when the MACD crosses the signal line bearishly or goes red the 20 period SMA is a good place to accumulate. Even in late 2014 when we closed a monthly candle below the 20 we were fine. I have not shown the OBV in the chart below because it does not have any serious signals except the OBV has been trading around the 10 EMA. Some Macro stuff The only way we go much below the 20 period SMA is if we have a the NASDAQ bubble completely pop or a financial crisis like 2008. That scenario is certainly on the table given how horrific the news cycle appears to be and if international trade slows and the news picks up about supply chain problems Amazon is going to be hit particularly hard. Then we start looking for a long term value buy at the monthly bollinger band which is conveniently right around the ascending triangle. It is also rather convenient that the price is distributing right above the target of the ascending triangle. Pure support and resistance traders would be looking for the top of the triangle to be tested as support anyway. Debt is also getting expensive and so there is less easy money for firms and with inflation picking up there should be less items consumed at a higher price, which means less orders from Amazon Please have a look at my Wycoff chart on the NASDAQ Futures if the subject interest you.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by This_Guhy
3
BTC SHORT trade - Good RRRThere are major bearish signs for bitcoin at the moment: 1) Bearish divergence on the 1,2,3,4 and 6 hour time frames on RSI and MACD. 2) There are 5 waves to the upside that can clearly be counted on the 1h chart. 3) There is a head and shoulders pattern as you can see with the left shoulder labelled as 'LS', right shoulder 'RS', and head 'H' in the analysis. 4) We can have hit the 40k resistance. I have gone short here with 1.5x and I plan to ride this down a nice amount. Let me know if you have any other ideas. Good luck, all the best.
Short
by TradewithLu
3
Super Bearish Weekly Wick & RSI Divergance - Critical PointThe market retracement gave the DXY a lifeline which has caused it's opposite pairs to take a huge dip leaving one of it's pairs - the NZD/USD with a super bearish wick at a critical resistance zone which stems all the way to Summer of 2016. X/USD pairs have been having a whale of a time since the market sell off back in March and I have been expecting a reversal here from the NZD/USD for a good while now. The bearish RSI divergance is indicated by the red diagonal lines. My target here, as indicated on the chart is the 0.6800 zone & with a tight stop loss above the resistance we are left with a pleasant risk to reward here. With such a huge rejection at a very obvious key level, the markets finally seeming to be heading into a correction phase (which might be filthy if the fed stop printing) and the clear bearish RSI divergance all kindly indicate that this is due a sell off. Just my 2 cents.
Short
by SkyTrees
3
Eth looks like a shortPrice has moved up for the last couple of days and with what I see I have put a short on and will be planning to take profit on this descending triangle structure. The main chart goes over a lot but lets expound At the left of the chart the Keltner Channel bottom acted primarily as support and price often went above the the Keltner channel and moved the bollinger band upward for months. There was topping behavior in May and we now have what I see is a clear descending triangle. The price action was closing whole candles below the Keltner. On the run up there are candle with bodies below the candle, but they had some structure in the Keltner. Whole candles below the Keltner signals a lot of selling pressure. Price action has dropped from the resistance of the triangle to the support when there where bearish K-D crosses. The middle red circle did require a double cross as the topping behavior went on a bit longer. This last and current black circle and red arrow may also require a double K-D cross. As I assess this, it is a high probability short due to the overall structure and time it has to develop as well at being at the Keltner when it has begun to act as resistance. On a lower time frame at the blue arrow I see lots of signs that ETH was topping here. Lots of wicks to the up and downside and the bodies getting very tight and then a clear red candle with no upside wick. The standard 4 hour candles show we had a symmetrical triangle structure that broke down after a MACD cross. This can still chop side ways or even up a little but there is a lot of bearish divergence on the 4 hour chart with the RSI. Between the daily descending triangle and that 4 hour MACD cross I see a high probability that we go down shortly. Stocks can get relatively tight.
Short
by This_Guhy
5
Bitcoin's recent volatility has not changed a bearish biasSo far Bitcoin has had a good couple of days and I see lots of people in real life as well online starting to get bullish and looking at putting on some big bets and so far I don't see the justification for that enthusiasm. I will link some ideas that make the macro bearish case to keep this post from ballooning even more. Analysis The bollinger bands can help determine trend merely by how they are angled... up, sideways or downward. You can also see "expansive" moves when the bollinger bands widen and you can see if it has been a really long time since the bottom of the bollinger band has been tested or if the top of the bollinger band has not been tested in a long time. Also, the daily VSTOP very close to the top of the daily BB. I suspect of volatility traders will be expecting the move to end here. The first thing that BTCUSD will have to do before I start to change my bearish bias is start to move the daily BB sideways and then start to get it to move upward. That process can take months so I don't feel I am missing out of I don't rush to put a trade on in the next couple of days. Again, there is is also a very real chance that price action gets ripped to shreds at the top of the daily BB and VSTOP. To be fair, the markets could potentially display a lot of upside potential. Here is the 3 day chart with both the standard and crypto ichi-moku cloud settings. The T-K displayed are for the crypto cloud and the high points are summarized on the chart. There are a lot of powerful moves in both directions when we are in the previous two black boxes but the ultimately we saw a bearish breakdown. It is just a very low probability scenario in my opinion. s3.tradingview.com My Trade Set Up thought Process As it stands on the 12 hour (and below) the RSI is already divergence to price action with hidden bearish divergence. Taking a short at or about the top of the daily BB would be a very technical move as the BB charts potential support and resistance and when it appears resistance or support is being met it can be evaluated with indicators. To try and limit any losses I am going to be waiting for a red shadowless Heikin Ashi candle on the 12 hour on BTC or other crypto to put my short order on. Target setting will be based on the idea BTC is in a head and shoulders. That means I am prepared to short this right shoulder to past the neckline but will be on guard for a return move to the neckline and then another rejection. If I don't get the red candle I want I wait. I can literally just evaluate the charts ever 12 hours for a couple of minutes while I check the list of coins I want to put my shorts on unless I am looking to write an idea. The linked ideas show how I set the macro trend and why I am using a low time frame (daily BB and 12h candles) to set my entry. If you review the watchlist from the main chart I am still on #1 of the watchlist. Which means I personally have a long way to go before I personally start to take longs or move out of stable coins. Rather than buying dips and selling into strength I am looking to short the rip. Linked Ideas summary The first three ideas are my system for confirming market bias using the Volatility Stop on multiple time frames in conjunction with some other simple and fundamental technical analysis. The VSTOP is based of a measure of volatility, the Average True Range. If you read all three you will see plenty of re-iterations of the same concept but you should understand why by bias is so bearish. The last idea is where I think we will see a major stall in downtrend and potential reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
18
YFII/BTC analysis: expecting a bearish movement.Hi every one YFII/BTC YFII/BTC has been ranging in a channel for quite sometime. If you pay attention you can see that the price couldn't break the resistance (around 0.07 which is shown in the picture). so there is a strong chance that the price won't be able to break this resistance again and would fall to the support level once again. there is also a regular bearish Divergence (-RD) visible on both MACD and RSI which makes the expected bearish movement more reliable to happen! Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad. Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!! Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck
Y
by CobraVanguard
7
Steep Correction To Come I am a huge fan of Apple and their business model, but this is technical analysis and the "red" flags are screaming that it is time for a sharp correction. Indicators: I. Red trend lines signaling future decline ( trend lines are from the Knoxville Divergence indicator and help foresee growing divergence often times ahead of MACD and traditional sell signals II. High RSi shows that Apple is extremely overbought III. Visible range shows the prime trading activity price is 127.14 IV. Divergence+ shows a red cloud above the most recent candles indicating high levels of bearish divergence Feedback: Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, this analysis has been used previously and is extremely accurate. Previous analysis linked below
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Myantman101
19
ETH 4H rising wedge low risk shortPotential Triple bearish divergence on MACD on the 4H. Potential bearish divergence on the RSI 4H. Rising wedge formation. Elliot wave count at 5 should be followed by ABC correction. Entry should be around ~2450$ or breakout of the wedge at ~2300$ . Stop loss should be a close above rising wedge around ~2500$ . Target is the bottom of the wedge or the measured moved at 2050$ . A argument could be made that the daily is forming a potential hidden bearish divergence on the MACD. The daily also broke a key trendline to the upside.
Short
by CryptoSlots777
2
[UPDATE ALT COIN MARKET] ALTS WOW! Are you seeing what I see? In this video, I'm analyzing the altcoin market by dividing the market cap by the M2 money supply. I also focus on the type of growth we had, the RSI and the timeframe of the cycle. As you can see: - M2 shows that we had a great re-test of the previous 2018 all-time high - More sustainable growth and not a blow-off top vertical log growth like in 2018 - 2021 RSI showed a bearish divergence which usually anticipates a correction and not the end of a cycle. 2018 RSI showed a completely different situation. - The previous bull market lasted more than 1 year while the current one less then 7 months Bonus: we did not break the all-time high of the BTC dominance yet (look at my related idea)
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by Homocryptus
1
Another Covid Crash?I'm seeing a lot of similarity between the Covid crash and current day. WHAT HAPPENED DURING COVID CRASH: -Closed red at the end of Friday -Gapped lower on Monday -Broke support levels and then smashed through the 200 EMA (4H) -Retested the 200 EMA (4H) but got rejected -Dropped another 30% before bottoming out SIMILARITIES: -This Friday we closed red and we broke down from a multi-month rising wedge -Bump in volume similar to Covid crash -RSI value similar to Covid crash -Bearish divergence similar to Covid crash KEY TAKEAWAY: -If on Monday we gap down, then we need 200 EMA (4H) to act as support -If we break that, then the likelihood of another crash increases -A pullback of similar magnitude to the Covid crash would take us down to $280 for SPY (seems to be some support there)
AMEX:SPY
by Huntz
3
Will The Fed Save The Dow?The Down has gapped below the previous low completing the Dow sell signal I posted about compared to the Dow Transport. Rsi and Stoch Rsi are nearing buy signals though plus the Dow broke down from the falling wedge. I am hedged short but I am not calling a full on crash/top given the Fed's track record. If the Fed didn't always save the market I would go short with a lot more conviction. Going to be interesting to see what happens with the options expiration today.. Most times people are warning of option expiration nothing happens.. lets see if this time is different. Eyes on the VIX too.
DJ:DJIShort
by richardthick