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AUDJPY 4hour Analysis August 29th, 2021AUDJPY Bearish idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: AJ is very much bearish on higher timeframes, however, we are in a large retracement. It looks like price action is going to test broken structure around 80.750 before we see something we can take a trade on. Ideally we see a strong reversal at 80.750 with plenty of confluence that we can then enter short on. Look to target lower to major support levels. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bullish we need to see a clear break above 80.750 with a confirmed higher low above.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY close to ResistanceHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price is inside DESCENDING CHANNEL and is now close to RESISTANCE. One can go for sell after breakout from TRENDLINE SUPPORT. Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us
Short
by Ryan_lopes
4
AUDJPY facing bearish pressure |26th Aug 2021Price is seen to be holding below the descending trendline resistance, this signifies a bearish momentum on AUDJPY .(On the weekly chart, the price is still holding within the descending channel .) Price is expected to move towards the take profit level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci extension . Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the K% line has bounced off the resistance level and price is also seen to be holding below the 100 period MA. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
AUDJPY facing bearish pressure |26th Aug 2021Price is seen to be holding below the descending trendline resistance, this signifies a bearish momentum on AUDJPY .(On the weekly chart, the price is still holding within the descending channel .) Price is expected to move towards the 1st Support in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci extension . Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the K% line has bounced off the resistance level and price is also seen to be holding below the 100 period MA. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
AUD/JPY After IMPULSE comes CORRECTIONAfter impulse comes correction. By using the Fibonacci retracement we can expect to see a bullish run to the golden ratio(0.618) or to the bearish trendline as drawn by me if today's candle closes in a green candle but also keep in mind to apply a stop loss before taking a trade and be alert on the upcoming news relating to this currency pair if news comes unfavorable then we should not FOMO(Fear of missing out) to close this trade. Also, do your own research Happy trading!
Long
by Tush4nt
AUDJPY short burst of bullish momentum | 23rd Aug 2021Price have made a lower low which confirms overall bearish trend for AUDJPY however price has potential to bounce up to create a higher low hence our bias for the short term is bullish . Price is expected to push up to resistance level in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension to make a potential lower high. Our short-term bullish bias is further supported by the MACD indicator showing the MACD line cross above the signal line and a bullish reversal candle, hammer , spotted at the price bounce. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis August 22nd, 2021AUDJPY Bearish idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: Bearish on AJ as well but we only have one great opportunity to short here. Ideally price action rejects our 38.2% fib level near 79.000 and confirms a lower high. We’ll look to enter short on strong bearish setups and target lower toward our -27% fib level and monthly support. Trade scenario 2: If price action breaks above 79.000 we could catch some lower timeframe long positions because it’s likely we'll see price action pull back to 80.750/ the top of the channel.
Short
by ForexLeague
Oh dear... we might be at peak growth!'Where's your head at?' If you've never watched Love Island - I have a girlfriend so I am practically forced to - this is a question that is asked by the contestants to their prospective partners to figure out the basic human relationship formation, as to whether someone actually likes them or not. I like to use visual imagery to see whether it lines up with my feelings. Are we currently on a lovely warm, Spanish island like the contestants... Or are we in somewhere like Blackpool (think Gary, Indiana for those of you from the US)? Let's see. 'Don't put all your eggs in one basket.' I've seen a tonne of commentators talking about inflation as if it's going to be something like Weimar. If you've been a subscriber for a while, you'll know that I think it's complete nonsense and we'll never have permanent inflation, or at least to the extent that said commentators reckon. You literally just have to look at a long term chart of the US 10 year yield to note this. If we were to have higher inflation, then nominals would likely be way higher. They just aren't. The key behind my argument here is that we have reached peak growth post pandemic and inflation can rarely maintain under such a poor labour market condition and lack of potential for wages to maintain their rise. So let's check out the US Purchasing Managers' Index... It's facing a bit of a decline. No, I'm not a fan of using diffusion indices, but as a proxy for growth, especially after a time where the supply side was shot to pieces, we can argue that we are now looking at a slowing of manufacturing in the US. My thoughts are that the cause of this rolling over is to do with China, 100%. China has been a leader in providing credit to the world, and boosting global growth. The past year or so, this relationship has remained constant - except they have gone the opposite way and have been deleveraging and reducing available credit. We can pull up a chart to display not just US PMIs, but global PMIs to show the potential effects on growth that we are in for based off the Chinese credit impulse changes. In my view, the market is acting far too insular by only focusing on the US economy internally, and not enough emphasis is being places on the spill over effects from China. Again, the market is facing amnesia over history, and the relationship between credit, growth and globalisation, of which China has been a key driver of. What's interesting about that chart is the lead time. Ten months is rather a long time, but the implications of this could mean that we begin to see growth start to roll over in the next 3-6 months... Now let's think of the implications here on the US... 'I'm being mugged off!' Jackson Hole is just round the corner. It's the one year anniversary of the Fed's new Average Inflation Targeting framework and the talk about town is whether the Fed will announce tapering or not. With the 'proxy timeline' of peak growth being from now 'til the end of the year, they could be forced into a bit of a conundrum, especially if the next CPI print comes in soft as the prior one did. See, they could be tapering into a growth scare - while the market is fully focused on tapering to control inflation (which I clearly think is redundant), tapering into peak growth is a magnitude worse. Remember, central bank policy is largely psychological - it's about messaging, and market participants acting on that messaging. Now think of growth and tapering as something that can only be done if both are moving the same way... Taper into growth falling and the Fed is telling the market 'we don't necessarily want to support you', as well as all the other compounding factors that might have led to said growth falling. People then shit themselves, since they're so used to the liquidity addiction of the past 12 years. Not only this, but you might see a change in what businesses do. Do they then start to put away capital since they think it's the end of the business cycle? Take a look at this picture... Where do you think we are now, based off of what has been said above? I'd firmly say that we have moved from the 'risk on' phase to the 'caution' phase. Below is a chart of NASDAQ futures with a rate of change indicator added. What do we notice? Well, more recently, rate of change in the tech index has slowed and has been rather compressed on a historical basis. This is even while the US 10 year yield has faced downside pressures, something which you would have thought would provide a path of least resistance to the upside for big tech, since it discounts future cashflows - the rate of change relative to the 10 year yield has essentially been dampened. For me, that signifies that other factors are at play... The number one being the growth scare that this piece is about! So, could the Fed be entering a policy decision that means they're going to mug themselves off? I reckon so. Perhaps it's not time to keep your (call) options open. 'My head has been turned' Bank of America released their Global Fund Manager Survey yesterday... Here's what they said if you want to buy into the peak growth story. 'For growth scare... 'long bonds vs stocks, long staples/utilities vs banks; for 'reflation resumption'... long EM & Japan.' My thoughts are along the lines of this contrarian trade. Take a peek at $TLT, the long bond ETF. The fact that so many are still focused on inflation as being the mover of the long bond makes me excited. The inflation story, in my view, is petering out as a driver, and growth will come back to the forefront. Market chatter having a boner for inflation serves our idea well. The US Conference Board has this to say on growth... The Conference Board forecasts that US Real GDP growth will rise to 7.0 percent (annualized rate) in Q3 2021 and 6.0 percent (year-over-year) in 2021... Looking further ahead, we forecast economic growth of 4.0 percent (year-over-year) in 2022 and 3.0 percent (year-over-year) in 2023. Do we think they're right? I don't. I think there will be misses on these estimates. And the reason for that is the latest Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey numbers... Yeah, taper into that, ya nutters. My thoughts are that stocks generally are less attractive with these matters considered. What we should be looking at are more defensive plays, yes with the long bond, but also looking at the state of geopolitics now. This is one reason why I am a fan of selling the Aussie vs Yen, but also versus GBP. The Aussie dollar is a high beta currency, and selling it versus the yen plays into the peak growth story... But selling it versus GBP negates the risk, since GBP is also high beta, and you're really playing a coronavirus & monetary policy differential theme there. I would argue that looking at war stocks could be a good play too. Here's Lockheed Martin coming into the 200WMA. And Raytheon still hasn't breached its all time high from last March. These are very much defensive plays on the market as a whole. That's not to say to dump your NASDAQ exposure - that would be silly. But I think the time is right to start looking a little more defensively, since there are far too many factors to make me think that simply holding through the next 6 months is optimum. This market simply ain't my type on paper at the moment.
NYSE:RTX
by FinkPro
50
AUDJPY facing bearish pressure | 16th Aug 2021Price may retest the pivot at 80.088 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement to take profit at 81.325 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension . Otherwise, price may retrace to stop loss at 79.443 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
2
Looking to short AJ Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUDJPY sideway freak,wait to breakout Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUDJPY facing bearish pressure | 12th Aug 2021Price is below our pivot level at 81.581 which is in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension level. Price could potentially drop towards support at 80.598 in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If price bounces, it could potentially swing towards resistance at 81.944 in-line with 100% Fibonacci extension level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis August 8th, 2021AUDJPY Bearish idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We’re still technically bearish here on AJ but it has been throwing some fake outs here and there. Essentially we’re still in a period of consolidation while price action figures out where it wants to go. In the meantime we’ll remain prepared. If price action drops below 80.750 and forms a lower high we’ll be interested in entering short. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bullish we would ideally need to break the resistance of the range around 81.400. If we see some higher lows above we could be looking at some long positions.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY facing bearish pressure | 6th Aug 2021Price is reversing from the sell entry at 81.352 at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our take profit at 80.598 in line with 61.8 Fibonacci retracement and extension. Otherwise price may rise to stop loss at 81.656 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
3