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Aud-jpy

AUDJPY 4hour Analysis July 25th, 2022AUDJPY Neutral idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: Overall we are extremely bullish on AJ but how price action is acting around our 95.000 zone makes this chart tricky. Ideally, we reverse near 95.000, as the pair is overextended, and start forming strong bearish characteristics. Trade scenario 2: For this pair to look very clearly bullish we ideally need to see a clear break above 95.000 with a confirmed higher low above.
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY to continue in the bullish channelAUDJPY - Intraday - We look to Buy at 94.50 (stop at 93.50) Previous support located at 95.00. Previous resistance located at 95.50. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 94.50, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 95.50 will confirm the bullish momentum. Our profit targets will be 96.50 and 97.00 Resistance: 95.50 / 96.50 / 97.00 Support: 95.00 / 94.50 / 94.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis July 17th, 2022AUDJPY Bullish idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: Back to bullish for AJ. We recently broke a 4hour bearish trend when price action pushed through our 92.850 zone. Going into this week we’re looking to continue bullish. Ideally we can spot some quality higher lows close to our 61.8% fib level for entry opportunities. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ more bearish we would need to see a break back through our 92.850 zone. If this happens and price action forms new structure we will consider entries on lower highs.
Long
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY can move lower? 🦐AUDJPY on the 4h chart on last Friday broke below the support area at the 93 level. The market is now looking for a retracement and a possible retest of the 0.382 Fibonacci level. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a retest of the resistance level and at that point if the price will provide an inversion i will check a potential short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
8
AUDJPY breaking above its ChannelThe AUDJPY pair has been trading withing a Channel Down since the June 08 High and has found lately support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In 1D RSI terms, it appears to be replicating the October 20 2021 - January 28 2022 pattern, which eventually broke to the upside and reached its 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we are turning into buyers on this pair, targeting 97.900 initially. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis July 10th, 2022AUDJPY Bullish idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We are clearly bearish on AJ and it looks like we are going to continue with this bearish trend into the week based on what we can see right now. Ideally, we spot a strong reversal near 92.850 with price action forming a lower high below. Look to enter short on strong bearish setups after the lower high. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bullish again we would need to see a significant higher low above 92.850 with strong bullish setups to enter on.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUD/JPY Outlook (6 July 2022)Anticipating further AUDUSD weakness, this could take the AUDJPY lower as well. Despite general Yen weakness, the Yen has found some strength over the past trading sessions as markets increased concern over a global recession, which could have led to the increase in demand for the safe haven currency. The AUDJPY tested and rejected the 92.50 resistance level, confirming the likelihood for further downside. Look for price to trade lower towards next support of 91.00
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUD/JPY Outlook (28 June 2022)AUDJPY has been sitting just below the 94.00 resistance level. This level has been held since April and more recently in June, acting as a support turned resistance level. In lined with the AUD/USD analysis and the expectation for AUD to break lower, look for the AUDJPY to be resisted at the resistance level to trade towards the 92.50 support level. Although further Yen weakness is anticipated, I think that weakness in the AUD might frontrun this move lower. To be extra safe, look for a clear rejection of the resistance before trading lower. If price climbs higher and breaks above the 94.00 resistance, the current short would not be valid. Instead look to short from the next resistance of 95.50
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUDJPY 4hour Analysis June 19th, 2022AUDJPY Bullish idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: We are still overall bullish on AJ and we can identify our key zone around 93.000. As long as we are above 93.000 we are generally bullish. Look for strong rejection off 93.000 with clear characteristics of a bullish trend. Look to ride the trend and only enter long on higher lows near support levels. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bearish we would need to see a break below 93.000 with a lower high below.
Long
by ForexLeague
AUD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst underlying negative risk sentiment, but the bigger short-term negative driver has been China’s covid struggles. China’s economy is always a key focus point for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow this year, China (which has been slowing for the past 18 months) is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy is at a big divergence between China and the rest of the world). This expected recovery in China has been a key positive driver for the AUD. As long as China’s recovery expectations remain alive, that should continue to support the Australian economy as it means further support for key commodity exports like Iron Ore, Coal and LNG . There was some news out this past week that China is looking to set up a centralized iron ore buyer to counter Australia’s dominance. Iron Ore has not taken this news well and will be an important one to watch as Iron Ore is Australia’s top export and 80% of it goes to China. The RBA finally woken up from their slumber and starting their hiking cycle fairly aggressively is also supportive for the AUD. The short-term problem to the current bullish bias for the AUD is the continued covid dilemma facing China right now. As long as the covid situation stays bleak, and China continues to lock down parts of the country due to their draconian covid-zero policy, the AUD might struggle to take advantage of the other positive drivers and makes it more sensitive to underlying risk. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, and any catalyst that triggers higher hike expectations (RBA speak, inflation and wage data) could trigger a bullish response from the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers further upside in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk offsentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. With the RBA just recently shifting policy and hitting the ground running on hikes, there is more room for them to get more aggressive, but of course any RBA speak or info in upcoming meetings that talks down aggressive hikes could still be a short-term negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD remains positive for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China. The short-term covid issues have pushed back but not removed recovery expectations, but until the covid fog clears and the Chinese economy shows recovery signs, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside short-term momentum. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, the bank has once again at their June meeting stayed stubbornly dovish keeping yields capped at 0.25%. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, the inflows has been more limited compared to other cycles. The main reason for that is that the bank’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so the continued rise in oil prices has added to the downside and eroded some of the classic safe haven appeal. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is stubbornly dovish. Any catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger upside in JPY, which means Friday’s CPI print will be in focus. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US CPI, faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions as well. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US CPI, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture remains bleak for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script this past week. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays unnecessarily dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. Take note that positioning has been stretched (tactically and CFTC) for some time, which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower from here.
by thunderpips
1