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Market Fundamental Analysis for 8 October 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair attracted some buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and so far seems to have broken a five-day losing streak, hitting a near four-week low near 1.31600 reached the previous day. However, spot prices are unable to consolidate above the 1.31000 mark, causing bullish traders to be somewhat cautious. Investors remain concerned that tensions in the Middle East could escalate into a larger conflict. In addition, not-so-optimistic comments from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) overshadowed the recent optimism from China's stimulus measures and curbed investors' appetite for risky assets. This is evidenced by the overall weak tone in equity markets, which in turn could help drive inflows into the US Dollar and constrain the GBP/USD pairing. Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there is a possibility that the central bank could become more aggressive in cutting rates if there is further good news on inflation. This could help limit British Pound (GBP) gains and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair lies to the downside. As such, any further upward movement could be seen as a selling opportunity and risks quickly coming to naught. On Tuesday, no market-important economic data will be released from either the UK or the US, so the dollar and the GBP/USD pair will depend on the Fed's words. Meanwhile, attention will be focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. It will be followed by data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US, which will play a key role in stimulating demand for the dollar and will give a new impetus to the currency pair. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.31000, when fixing above it consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD Daily Analysis - A downward movement is expected towards Throughout the first day of the new week EURUSD remained consolidated at the levels of 1.0960/85. Today at 6 o'clock GMT we expect data on Industrial Production for the month of August in Germany, with expectations for a growth of 0.8% compared to the previous month, where we had a drop of -2.4%. The Eurogroup Meeting is another key event of the day that is likely to have an impact on currency markets. A little later in the day, however, the Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates more aggressively by 0.5% following the new trend of interest rate cuts around the world. From World-Signals.com, we expect a slight strengthening of the Euro, but it is very likely that the downward trend will continue towards the end of the week. Bet on a strategy to sell on slight bounces up to 1.1010+ with daily gains of 20-35 pips or short positions with bigger gains towards the end of the week.
Short
by World-Signals
EA could see some more potential bounce off the lows/support nowHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Bigger Bubble" Creation vs. Downtrend Bubble Burst: What Comes NMore Giant Bubble" Creation vs. Downtrend Bubble Burst: What Comes Next? As the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its rate-cutting cycle, the stock market and gold prices are hitting record highs, fueling growing investor confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy. However, it’s important to remain cautious. The market may appear to be creating a "bigger bubble," but investors should consider secondary effects. An economic slowdown could trigger a sudden market crash even with continued rate cuts. A critical indicator to watch is the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which often signals an impending recession. Recently, a closely watched segment of the yield curve has returned to a typical slope after being inverted, signaling that a sharp economic downturn may be imminent. "When the inversion ends, the real countdown begins, and that’s where we are now." "Bigger bubble" creation vs. downtrend bubble burst?! Waiting for a LONG trade: Please refer to the chart. Long trade entry set up target and s/l. Methodology: Fibonacci Channel & Fibonacci Retracement Risk control reference pivot points: Daily pivot points (table provided) 4-hour pivot points (table provided) www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The content represents expert opinions and is not investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions, carefully assess risks, and bear full responsibility for their outcomes.
NASDAQ:NDX
by fortunepivot
Euro can rise a little and then continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price entered to range, where at once fell to the current resistance level and then rebounded up. EUR rose to the top part of the range and then turned around and dropped to the resistance area, thereby exiting from the range. After this, the price started to grow inside the upward channel, making a fake breakout of the 1.1030 level. Inside the channel, the price rose to the 1.1175 level, after which rebounded and fell to the support line of the channel, and then it backed up. EUR even rose higher than the seller zone, reached the resistance line of the channel, and then made a correction movement, breaking the 1.1175 level again. After this, the price in a short time rose to the seller zone and then made an impulse down, thereby breaking the 1.1175 level, and exited from the upward channel. Also soon, Euro broke the 1.1030 level and now it is trying to grow. For this case, I think that the price can grow to the resistance area and then continue to decline more. That's why I set my TP at 1.0900 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
3
How Much More Longer BearishOn this pair, we find that on the weekly timeframe, the market is Bullish. Price even went all the way up towards our liquidity target but failed to close above it. We are currently witnessing another pullback. On the Daily, price is bullish. We have seen prices currently retrace into the daily zone. But there is a lot of speculation as to whether or not this our refined daily reversal zone has what it takes to invite the bulls of demand to hold prices at that level and drive it back up. Now my Analysis: As much as I would want the daily zone to hold, as this is the fastest way for us to find a LONG trading opportunity, jumping on the rally towards the confluence weekly/daily liquidity targets. But I have a bit of reservation on this. This is because of the force with which prices have come into the daily reversal zone. Prices have come into the zone with a strong push, and not the usual gentle slide in expected of a reversal zone. Dont get me wrong, I am not concluding that the zone will fail, but rather I am saying that instead of the initial 70% chance I had of the zone holding, I now have a 40% chance of it holding because of price action. In the event that the zone holds, we will expect to see the rally resume with prices gravitating towards our liquidity target above; and we will excitedly pull out out panzy pips trading system and jump on the trade. But what happens if the zone fails..? Where this is the case, we will look to see prices deep further towards the Weekly zone below. From where we will look to see some bullish reversal and again place our trade setup right beside price and stand ready to trade. In all of these, we do not and cannot completely rule out the possibility of catching some bearish trades where the daily zone is breached and price dips towards the Weekly zone. Share your thoughts guys and let us see your perspective on the market
Long
by PanzyPips
Are The Bulls Still Up To IT?On this pair, we see that the Weekly chart is ready to resume its long held bearishness. Over the past few days, we have witnessed prices rally all the way up (a Bullish retracement inside a bearish swing), driving prices into our marked out Weekly reversal zone. As expected, the zone held, and we began to see reversals, with prices turning bearish from that point. But the thing is this, that bullish retracement on the weekly came as a result of a bullish extension on the daily chart. The pertinent question before us now is whether or not the bulls of the daily chart will be able to come in strongly enough to contain the current bearish push and hold prices in a bullish trend. Here is my take. It is common knowledge that the lower time frames move in consonance with (in obedience to) the higher timeframes... lol (the word "obedience" got me laughing for a bit. But let's cyt back to the chase) Now we have seen the daily printing a bullish narrative. But we are all expected to believe that the bullish trend sustained by the daily has the primary intention and purpose of driving prices in the direction of the higher timeframe, which in this case is the weekly chart. We therefore believe that all of that bullish push was to drive prices into the Weekly reversal zone. With that being fulfilled, price is expected to move in the direction of the Weekly over and above the daily direction. This is the regular theory and philosophy of the forex market. But will that narrative hold sway this time around? We see prices now dipping bearish. This is an extension for the Weekly chart, and at the same time a retracement on the daily bullish swing. In the event that the Daily zone holds (which is less likely), we will expect to see prices reverse bullish, begin totally and move to take out Daily liquidity target above. This will result in a deeper retracement inside the Weekyl zone, or a complete breach of the zone. Where the zone is breached, we will look to see the market print higher prices and go all the way up. On the other hand, if the bearish perspective of the Weekly holds, we will expect to see the Daily zone breached, at which point we will expect prices to dip towards the weekly liquidity target below. So guys, who do you thing is gonna win the day, the Bulls of the Daily or the Bears of the Weekly? share your thoughts in the comment section
Short
by PanzyPips
Cross Roads for the CableOn the Weekly, we see that the market is in a Bullish swing. After prices rallied to form the high, it has begun the bearish retracement, dipping towards the reversal zones which are refined from the existing PB of the Weekly. This narrative above is also the same for the Daily chart. On the Daily, not only dow e see a chart that is bullish and now retracing bearish into the refined zone, but we can notice that at this time, price is well inside the zone, and even threatening to break bearish and breach the zone. Now my analysis: I expect the Daily reversal zone to hold. Where that happens, we expect to see prices go all the way up to hit Daily liquidity target and at the same time give us an extension of the current bullish swing on both the Daily and Weekly charts. If it does go this way, we will pull our our panzy pips trading system and begin to catch trades on the extension rally. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that our daily zone fails, we will expect to see prices retrace deeper and dip lower towards the weekly reversal zone, from where we will watch out for reversals inside that zone. The rally will be expected to begin from there, and from there drive prices all the way up towards the Weekly liquidy target. This is gonna be one hell of a rally, so y'all better be ready to cath some great deal of profit off of that rally. As usual, we will look to trade that rally applying our same trad entry systems unique to panzy pips traders. See you at the top of that cliff guys ...
Long
by PanzyPips
2
Daily analyzes of EURUSD - Dollar regains lost positionsAmong the important fundamentals from Monday is Factory Orders for the month of August in Germany from 8am GMT. It is very likely that we will see another contraction that will negatively affect the Euro. In general, the industry in Germany has started to shrink and there are no chances for growth. The other important news is related to retail sales in the Eurozone at 11am GMT. Although we expect levels around zero or very little growth in retail sales. Among the world events that affect the currency markets are the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, where mainly the Euro may suffer due to disrupted supplies of both goods and fuels. Overall, the Dollar will be in a stronger position this week and we at World-Signals.com expect the Dollar to strengthen against the Euro. In the last week, the Dollar has taken about 200 pips on the Euro. In retrospect, the Dollar had 3 losing weeks, and only in the last one did it regain some of the lost positions. Use the 1.1010 levels to open short positions with a 6-8 business day closing target.
Short
by World-Signals
Caterpillar (CAT): Construction Strength Amid Industrial SlumpCharting Caterpillar can be challenging, given the complexity of its price structure, but it’s fascinating to see how well it respects Elliott wave theory and trend channels. Despite the difficulties, the adherence to these principles makes the analysis quite promising. The construction sector for Caterpillar remains robust, while the true growth catalyst is expected from a recovery in the mining industry, driven by demand from China and other regions. However, it’s not all positive: industrial activity in the U.S. has been sluggish, with the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers' Index falling below 50 in 21 of the last 22 months—marking one of the worst streaks on record. This industrial downturn certainly adds pressure. On a higher time frame, there’s not much new to add. However, we are looking for Caterpillar to move higher to complete wave (3). As shown in the zoomed-in chart (the chart in the left frame), we can observe how accurately the price is moving within the trendline. The "best-case" scenario for us would involve a push above the channel, followed by a sell-off. If this happens, it will provide a clearer indication that a larger correction—wave (4)—is imminent.
NYSE:CAT
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
GOLD - Price can fall to support line of wedge and start to growHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some days ago price traded between $2400 level, which coincided with support area, and later started to grow in broadening wedge. In this pattern, price in a short time rose to resistance line, thereby breaking the last time $2400 level. Next, Gold made a correction to support line of wedge and at once turned around and made upward impulse. Then price reached and at once broke $2635 level and then rose to resistance line of wedge, but recently started to decline. In my mind, Gold can decline almost to support line of broadening wedge, breaking support level. After this, price will start to move up to $2720 points, breaking $2635 level one more time. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WalterMoon
15
EURO - Price can reach resistance area and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price rose to $1.1135 level, which coincided with the resistance level, and at once bounced down. Price fell to $1.1005 level and then started to grow inside wedge, where it in a short time reached $1.1135 level. After this, price some time traded between this level, until it finally broke it and then rose higher than resistance zone. But then, EUR turned around and made strong downward impulse, thereby exiting from wedge and breaking $1.1135 and $1.1005 level. Also, price little fell more, but recently it turned around and started to grow, so, I think it can reach resistance area. Then Euro can bounce from resistance zone and start to decline to $1.0900 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
4
How to analyse a chart? (Educational Post).In this post we will try to analyze what happened to Nifty and what can be the future course. We will also try to understand how to analyze Nifty using a parallel channel, EMA, Support and resistance and RSI. Through this exercise we will try to deduce possible turnaround supports, probable resistances it may face in future. On the onset let me tell you that the exercise is to increase the understanding of Technical analysis. The data should not be used for taking positions in the unpredictable market. Now have a look at the chart. With the help of basic knowledge, you will be able to understand that every time the Nifty or for that matter any stock hits the top of the channel it reverts. Every time a stock or an index hits the channel bottom it tries to bounce back. When RSI shows the stock is over sold it corrects positively through short covering and when the stock is overbought zone it will try to cool down the RSI by price correcting on the negative side. The mid of the channel acts as support when the price is above it and acts as a resistance when price is below it. Similarly 50 days and 200 days EMA which we call Mother and father line act as resistance when the price is below it and act as support when the price is above the lines. (This movement of stock price or index, when above and below 50 or 200 EMA whether it is hourly, daily, weekly or monthly and my Mother, Father and Small child theory I have explained it in depth in by book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation). The other green and red lines are supports and resistances respectively. These lines drawn based on peaks and valleys, tops and bottoms of important candles in case of a candle chart. In case of a line chart they are tops and bottoms of peaks and valleys again and important curves. Like we have supports and resistances on line chart of a stock and index, RSI also has support and resistnace zones which can also indicate us the turnaround zones. There in one more Purple line which indicates the current trend. Looking at these various factors you can analyses and draw your own charts. To know more about these indicators and how to use them and to understand Techno-Funda investment, read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback or Kindle version. My deduction from the above chart is the following. 24966 will be an important support for Nifty. Below which it can fall to 24698 or 24384 levels. Channel bottom support is around 23874. Father line and 200 days EMA is at 23241. Any of these can be potential turnaround zones. RSI of Nifty tends to bounce from 39.82 or 26.45 zone. Current RSI is 40.63. When there is a turnaround the resistances for Nifty will be 25065 which currently is Mother line resistance which is coinciding with mid channel resistance. Above this zone resistances will be 25439, 25665 and 25836 before Nifty regains 26K+ levels. The information regarding Nifty in this article is for the purpose of education and to show how various indicators often give same or similar result. To know more about various Techno-Funda indicators and how to use them, when to use them, when to buy, when to book profit, Where to place a stop loss or what is trailing stop loss etc. you are recommended to read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation which is available on Amazon in paperback or kindle version. You can also read my Smart School column in Smart investment financial Weekly for gaining techno-Funda knowledge. Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
HelenP. I Euro will break support level and continue to decline Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price some days ago declined to the trend line and then at once rebounded up. Then the price reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone, and even made a fake breakout, after which declined below. Next, the price broke this level, made a retest, and then continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. Euro entered to resistance zone, but soon turned around and dropped to the trend line, making a fake breakout of the 1.1150 level. Some time later price rebounded from the trend line and quickly backed up to the resistance zone, breaking the 1.1150 level one more time. Euro some time traded near this level and a few moments ago dropped to almost the support level, thereby breaking the resistance level with trend line. For this case, I expect that the Euro will fall to the support level, then make a small move up, after which break this level and continue to move down. Or, it can break the support level at once and continue to decline, without movement up. That's why I set my goal at 1.0800 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 4, 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate EURUSD: EUR/USD remains on the defensive near 1.1030 on the back of a stronger US dollar during the early Asian session on Friday. Cautious market sentiment ahead of key US economic data is putting pressure on the major pair. All eyes will be on the release of US employment data due for release today. The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Thursday provided some support to the US Dollar (USD). The services PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, beating the market forecast of 51.7, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ended 28 September. The figure followed the previous week's data of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and was worse than market expectations of 220,000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that policymakers are likely to stick to their policy of cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) going forward. Markets have priced the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at nearly 68.9%, while the probability of a 50 bps rate cut is 31.1%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday may provide some hints on how the US interest rate will move. The US economy is estimated to have added 140,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. If the employment report is weaker than expected, it could prompt the central bank to consider deeper rate cuts, which would put pressure on the US dollar. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers continue to hint that another rate cut could be in the near future. This, in turn, could weaken the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar. Kyle Chapman, currency analyst at Ballinger Group, said, ‘Policy is too tight given the challenging macroeconomic environment and a move to successive rate cuts seems self-evident now that disinflation is in its late stages.’ Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell CAD/JPY Resistance ZoneThe CAD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity @ Resistance Zone Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 108.25. Target Levels: 1st Support – 106.65 2nd Support – 105.48 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 109.02. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
Rebound of EURUSD to the lower boundary H4. 03.10.2024Rebound of EURUSD to the lower boundary Euro is forming a correction downwards and judging by the options, will be taken out to the area of 1.1000. This analysis was shown in advance in a private channel for subscribers when a deep correction downwards was confirmed, and later clarified by options. From the lower boundary near 1.10 we will catch buys when confirmed. Cumulative delta rising on a decline is a sign of a pullback and continuation of the decline, so I am not in a hurry and waiting for a rebound with confirmation of a reversal. OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by KovachTrader