AMD
NVDA Future Long Term Outlook | $QQQ | Bank Earnings kick off- NASDAQ:NVDA shaping up a H&S bearish pattern on daily time frame
- NASDAQ:SMH / SOXX semi sector relatively weaker than NASDAQ:QQQ & $NASDAQ. that's why im still holding onto SOXS
- When lead bull sectors starts to turn into more bearish we have to be careful with the other sectors. So far it is showing relative weakness but not too big of a divergence yet.
- Bank earnings will not directly effect QQQ and SMH but will indirectly effect sentiment and if SPY drops a lot so will tech stocks and vice versa.
ASML: Dominating the industry 💾ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).
ASML's lithography systems use a process called photolithography to create intricate patterns on silicon wafers, which are then used to create integrated circuits, memory chips, and other semiconductor components. These patterns are created using a process of etching, deposition, and other techniques that require precise alignment and control.
ASML's customers are primarily semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel, Samsung, TSMC, and GlobalFoundries. These companies use ASML's lithography systems to create the most advanced microchips on the market. ASML's customers are some of the largest and most influential players in the semiconductor industry, and they rely on ASML to provide them with cutting-edge technology that enables them to stay ahead of the competition.
ASML's business model is based on a high degree of innovation and research and development. They invest heavily in R&D to continually improve their technology and maintain their market leadership. Additionally, they operate on a capital-intensive model, where the cost of producing their lithography systems is high but the revenue potential is also significant.
Overall, ASML's business model is centered around developing and selling advanced lithography systems to the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers, which requires a high degree of technological innovation, R&D investment, and capital-intensive production processes.
There are other companies that offer lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, such as Canon, Carl Zeiss, and Ultratech, but they do not directly compete with ASML in the advanced lithography segment of the market. These companies generally offer less advanced lithography systems that are used for less complex microchip manufacturing applications.
ASML's main customers are some of the largest semiconductor manufacturers in the world. These companies use ASML's lithography systems to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips for a wide range of applications, including smartphones, computers, servers, and other electronic devices.
Some of ASML's key customers include:
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
- Samsung Electronics
- Intel Corporation
- SK Hynix
- Micron Technology
- GlobalFoundries
- UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation)
- STMicroelectronics
- Toshiba Memory Corporation
- Nanya Technology
With the underlying business performing so well over the years, its no surprise to see the stock has followed suit. Since 1996, ASML has returned +23.38% CAGR compared to +9.02% for SPY
At this rate of return HKEX:10 ,000 invested in ASML back in 1996 would have grown to over HKEX:3 million!
The strong market position and outlook for the business make me believe that the company will not be slowing down any time soon, and even at a valuation of 36x earnings I think this is a business trading at a fair value.
I have added this to my portfolio which you can check out here ⬇️
www.etoro.com
AMD, 10d+/-32.9%falling cycle -32.9% more than 10 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire WorthlessEver since NVDIA went up after its February earnings call, it seems that social media traders have been afflicted with a fetish for trying to short it. There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, they say, such as NVIDIA is trading at blah blah times P/E, AI doesn't actually need chips beyond the initial machine learning phase, and of course the top reason that everything should be bearish: the Federal Reserve isn't pivoting!
None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside.
The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease.
Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report).
And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around.
The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided.
NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends.
Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say:
NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021.
Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up?
Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO.
And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts.
You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple:
1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want.
2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops
3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace
4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that.
5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts
6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high
7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list.
What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling.
What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers.
In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself.
You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders.
Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high.
Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around.
You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself.
If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.
$AMD Daily swing trader order$AMD Daily swing trader order
Sell order for the day: 105.44
Buy order for the day: 86.30
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So this is by far one of the most effective strategies that I’ve traded ever. I used to have a very similar version and some of you may remember it from a few years back… but this just requires one buy order and one sell order every day after close… and as the market dips you’re buying and as it’s rallying you’re selling into the rally…. You don’t have to think of anything else…. Its super simple… in a way it’s a very passive swing trade strategy where you’re always buying the dip and always selling on the way up…
I am not your financial advisor and feel free to follow along to see how it plays out and jump in any time.
I’m tracking only a few of my positions on here and I want to see the success rate after 3 months. I know it works really well already but I want to be able to break it down and see it visually…. I’m visual like that… lol
Also not that there aren’t supposed to fill same day… I have each order set to GTD, and the date is 8 weeks out…. So it just needs to fill within 8 weeks….
It is a completely market neutral strategy so lets see how it weathers and drops and rallies that might be looming in this weird market…
AMD under bearish divergence influence.Advanced Micro Devices - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 92.69 (stop at 98.08)
Posted a Double Top formation.
Bearish divergence can be seen on the daily chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
In our opinion this stock is overvalued.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 92.87 should result in a further move lower.
The bias is to break to the downside.
Our profit targets will be 79.69 and 77.69
Resistance: 98.00 / 102.43 / 104.59
Support: 95.00 / 92.87 / 89.00
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IntelBetter late than never. NASDAQ:INTC is joining other semiconductor companies in a supposedly bullish run. NASDAQ:NVDA has led the pack, with NASDAQ:AMD joining last week. NYSE:TSM has been on the forefront with Nvidia but it pulled back, as a results it's not among the leaders at the moment, but moving up.
It's now a question of leader versus laggard. I have positions on NASDAQ:NVDA , NYSE:TSM , and NASDAQ:AMD . A swing trade on NASDAQ:INTC shouldn't hurt.
3/30 Watchlist + Notes SPY - Interesting day on SPY. We said yesterday that the markets could realistically go either way, but we were watching more so to the downside due to the failed 2U formed on Monday that was followed by a 2D yesterday, and having that small bearish bias by simply playing what is in front of us vs using other reasons for bias. SPY ended up gapping up premarket and closing green on the day with little to no upside wick. Based on today's movement, I believe that we will see some continuation to the upside tomorrow. With that being said, we still have the gap created in premarket to fill. I think that we will test last weeks high at 402.49 either tomorrow or Friday, but I do think that it will happen at some point sooner rather than later. I am open to playing both sides tomorrow, but it will depend on whether we break today's high and test last weeks high, or if we break today's low and try to fill that gap to the downside. It is worth noting also that we are sitting on the weekly upper trendline Final thoughts: I am forced to have a bullish bias for tomorrow, which I believe to be about 75% valid. I still think there is a chance we fill that downside gap before pushing higher
Watchlist + Bias:
AMD - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
COST - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
GOOG - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
NFLX - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
JNJ - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
FDX - 3-1-2U Weekly: Bullish - Today we broke out of the 3-1 weekly setup to the upside. Looking to target 226.06
Main Watch:
JNJ and GOOG
JNJ - Weekly chart is indicating we have hit a low and are looking to reverse to the upside soon. Going into tomorrow, I am hoping to see us continue up to the 154.13 level before hopefully taking out 154.54
GOOG - GOOG has room to both sides. There is a large FVG on both sides as well that relate to my targets for each side. To the downside, we have a daily FVG at yesterdays low of 100.28. To the upside we have a FVG starting at yesterdays high of 103.00, and I also have a target at the 50% retrace of that upside FVG at 103.87. Both of these targets are easily attainable in my opinion for tomorrow depending on which side we break out to. I don't have a bias as to which side id rather play, but I think that it will more so depend on how the markets are moving as a whole tomorrow. Remember, with these 2-1 setups, we are looking to play WITH momentum and not fight it.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
MRNA: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
MRNA broke yesterdays high within the first 5 minutes of market open, which is not what we were looking for. We were looking to play downside only, and because of this movement, we did not enter. It is worth noting that both times MRNA broke yesterdays high, it was almost immediately shot back down, which shows that we would have gotten smoked if we tried playing upside. This is a good example of why we look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly to develop a bias, and then stick to that bias.
Watchlist Stats For The Week:
2/3 on SPY predictions
2/3 on Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: NVDA (75%+)
Personal Stats:
4/6 For The Week:
Overall Green/Red?: Green (Day and Week)
SasanSeifi 💁♂️ AMD/ 1D LONGTERM ⏭ $89/$97 ? ❗❗HI TRADERS ✌The possible scenario of AMD is specified. As you can see, after breaking the long-term downward trend, the trend started to grow up to the range of 89 and then with a slight correction, it was able to grow again from the range of $76.
It is currently trading in the range of $83.24 and is above the 60 EMA. We can expect the price to grow to the range of $89. We have to see how the price will react to the $89 resistance range. If it stabilizes above the range of $89, the next target is the range of $97.
Keep in mind that it is important to maintain the $75 support Zone for the continuation of the uptrend
let's see...
❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS ANALYSIS? I will be glad to know your idea 🙂✌
IF you like my analysis please LIKE and comment 🙏✌
AMD is approaching resistance (daily chart)AMD, like many semis, has been on a rip lately. However, it appears to be in a resistance zone at a Gann confluence line at 100.13 (like SMH and many other semis), which is also where it turned back earlier. The RSI(9) is overbought. I would see it going back to prior Gann line at 91.23. That line is also near the top of a bullish Ichimoku cloud. Perhaps a buy there, but I would be cautious about buying semis after April, since we may be entering some seasonality.
AMD: ROAD TO $100$AMD has left the descending channel and close above the 50 daily MA. Now with BoC signaling interest rates cut in the next meetings, Fed will certainly not keep the same hawkishness after the positive US economic data too.
Let's see what we get for Q4,2022 earnings report, 31 January 2023. Will update this by then.
SL: below $60 should be fine
TP: $
AMD bullish move? - $AMD continues to push higher, along with the broader tech sector, amid overall market strength.
- AMD broke through its tough resistance at $90 and is currently closing around $97.
- Technical indicators are signaling that it's overbought, so don't be surprised if the stock pulls back. Bulls need to hold AMD above $85-90 to continue its bullish momentum.
- $AMD average price move per day is $2-$6 per day depending on market volatility.
- Below are my price levels for AMD.
Calls: buy above 99.69 sell at 103.69+
Puts: Buy below 94.99 sell at 93.29
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SIDE NOTE:
- make sure that you setup a price alerts on those key level so you wont miss the move.
and always to take your profits as you see one.
- sometimes, the fist 30 minute after of the opening bell is always volatile.
is either you can catch the move there. or wait for an 1 hour for better or cheaper price.
- as always if you have any question feel free to leave me a comment here.
if you're enjoying my ideas please don't forget to follow me or give the idea
a boost or like. thank you see you all soon.