AMD: Continuation off Bull Flag?AMD looks to be forming a Bull Flag for continuation. Bullish Divergence in RSI helps the case. Look for a 3-day consolidation in the event of more sideways action. Either way, a Bullish chart & Bullish set up for a deep Bid market. Bears will need to do a lot of work to reverse the strong trend.
AMD
Looking Bullish on AMD for a swing!Thank you as always for watching my analysis! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Make sure to let your loved ones know how much you cherish them and appreciate them! They are the ones that love and care about you the most in this harsh world! You are loved and appreciated!
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring.
The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape.
Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations.
Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft.
While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster.
Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday.
Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL .
Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors.
Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%.
Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before.
The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch.
3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets.
50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
How to BRR 101Refer to my prev AMD post back in Jan for credibility - I predicted run to 158-165 when it was in the 130s (result: ran to 180s).
Now we have a buy the dip opportunity after earnings sell off. There is still too much demand for this to tank yet, it wants one more high (at least).
Path to targets is the solid black line. Bullish channel its respecting is the dashed blue channel, every time it dips outside of that it gets bought up fast:
- Initial target = 187.50 by 2/9/2024
- After that hits it will pullback to around 176
- If 176 can hold as support it will make one final run to 192-199 by early March 2024
Trailing Stop loss is 2 consecutive closes below the dotted red line.
Entered Feb 16 175 calls for 3.50 on 1/31/2024 (underlying 167.67)
$SPY $483 Target remainsincoming pullback imo. 5-7% pullback before then of February. History doesn't always repeat itself but it does frequently rhyme. Refer to AMEX:SPY 6/15-8/17 ... Good luck everyone . From here I'm taking puts to $478 , calls at $478 to 20 DMA retest, consolidation for about a week... $483 Short until $470... Buy $468 for March run....
AMD Has it finally topped? Short-term sell in order?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been rising non-stop giving us excellent pull-back buy opportunities since our December 12 2023 analysis (see chart below):
This time however it has gone as close to the top of the 18-month Channel Up as it has been since the beginning and is printing the same peak pattern it has formed during all previous Higher High formations. In addition, the 1D RSI is on Lower Highs that just broke below the Higher Lows and that has been the Sell Signal during the previous three occurrences.
We are targeting a minimum of -19.38% decline such as on the June 26 2023 Low. If the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) breaks, we will open another one to target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level at 130.00, which will represent a -29.77% drop, being the total decline on the October 26 2023 Low.
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UBER 80 AFTER EARNINGS !! Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) has seen significant growth in the past year. The ride-hailing and delivery platform’s shares have skyrocketed 111% in the last 12 months1. This return not only far outpaced the broader Nasdaq Composite index, but it also means Uber is now hitting fresh all-time highs1.
Here are some key points to consider for a long position in Uber:
Network Effects: Uber’s business benefits from powerful network effects. The larger Uber gets, the more valuable its services become for all stakeholders2.
Growth Potential: Between Q3 2019 and Q3 2023, gross bookings and revenue increased 114% and 145%, respectively2.
Earnings Forecast: Wall Street analysts expect Uber will release earnings per share of $0.1593. With earnings projections at $9.76 billion, a 5% QoQ increase, and $0.39 earnings per share4.
Market Position: Uber’s network effect protects its competitive position. It would be an extremely difficult task for a new entrant, no matter how well funded, to start a competing ride-hailing or delivery business from scratch
AMD - Starting to Accumulate.AMD - Currently down 50% from ATH starting a position for long-term.
Looking to add at levels of support indicated in cyan. Big bids at 59-50 and 34-29.
Short-term trend change if yellow zone gained. Targeting orange around 100 for profit taking.
Looking for new ATH on gain of purple.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): A Promising Future in AIAdvanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) emerges as a compelling investment option poised for significant growth in 2024. As the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing units (GPUs) continues to surge, NASDAQ:AMD 's strategic moves and recent product unveilings indicate a promising trajectory. We delve into the factors driving NASDAQ:AMD 's potential for a soaring stock performance in the coming year.
1. AI Market Growth and AMD's MI300X Breakthrough:
The AI market, valued at nearly $200 billion in the previous year, is projected to witness a staggering compound annual growth rate of 37% through 2030, reaching over $1 trillion. AMD, recognizing this immense potential, unveiled its latest powerhouse, the MI300X GPU, in December. Positioned to challenge Nvidia's dominance, the MI300X promises to be a game-changer, offering competitive performance for training and surpassing Nvidia's H100 for inference by 10% to 20%. This strategic move positions NASDAQ:AMD as a formidable player in the rapidly expanding AI sector.
2. Strategic Partnerships with Tech Giants:
NASDAQ:AMD 's foray into AI is reinforced by strategic partnerships with industry giants, enhancing its market presence and credibility. Microsoft, a key ally with a close partnership with OpenAI, announced its adoption of NASDAQ:AMD 's new GPU in Azure, optimizing AI capabilities. This collaboration not only underscores AMD's technological prowess but also positions the company favorably in the cloud computing domain. With a similar agreement in place with Meta Platforms, NASDAQ:AMD secures a foothold among tech's most influential players, setting the stage for sustained growth.
3. Improved PC Market and Revenue Surge:
Beyond the AI realm, NASDAQ:AMD is capitalizing on a gradually improving PC market. Data from Gartner reveals a 0.3% increase in global PC shipments in Q4 2023, marking the first positive growth in over a year. This trend aligns with NASDAQ:AMD 's financial performance, as evidenced by a 42% YoY rise in revenue in its client segment during Q3 2023, reaching $1.4 billion. As macroeconomic headwinds subside, NASDAQ:AMD is poised to leverage a resurging PC market, contributing to its stellar growth outlook for 2024.
4. Earnings-Per-Share (EPS) Projections:
Projections for NASDAQ:AMD 's EPS indicate substantial upside potential, aligning with the company's growth prospects. As the company diversifies its product offerings and strengthens its position in both AI and PC markets, analysts anticipate a significant surge in the stock's value in the next fiscal year. This positive sentiment is further supported by NASDAQ:AMD 's continuous innovation and market responsiveness.
5. Technical Outlook and Investor Sentiment:
From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:AMD is riding a rising trend channel in the medium long term. This positive trend signifies investor confidence and a growing interest in the company's potential. With no apparent resistance in the price chart, the stock's upward momentum is reinforced by strong positive momentum. While acknowledging the potential for overbought conditions, the absence of resistance and the ongoing positive trend suggest further room for growth.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ) stands at the forefront of a transformative era in semiconductor technology, driven by the burgeoning demand for AI and the resurgence of the PC market. With its MI300X GPU poised to challenge industry leaders and strategic partnerships amplifying its market reach, NASDAQ:AMD is positioned for substantial growth in 2024. As EPS estimates align with the company's potential and technical indicators signal a positive trajectory, investors may find AMD a compelling opportunity for significant returns in the coming year.
AMD chart update, EXTENDED LINES EDITIONChart update, charts linked.
If you're buying long after 171, I warned you.
Orange is Support and future rejection trend.
If we close the week over 137.09
bullish.
39 gonna hit you like a truck if you're not out before the drop (Feb/March maybe, time frame is hard to predict, but I assume the drop ends sometime around May or June.)
AMD EXTENED LINE'S EXTENDED LINE EDITION (CONTINUE OR FALL)If you've been following me with AMD, we're pretty much out at this point, as we've been targeting the trade since 93, and there isn't much point to miss a few extra percentage points on the topside at the risk of losing all or much of the profits.
HOWEVER, there are still trades to the topside, as far as trades heading to the bottom side.
Marked in thick green and thick red are the TWO STRONGEST support and rejection trends I could find. Do more exist? Maybe, but you'll need a better analyst that me to find those.
Light red are steep support trends that have been building on top of each other (stacking)
Think of this like a skyscraper being built.
All indicators point that we are nearing a top. However, this means nothing as short term indicators can theoretically keep pumping the price over the long term targets, which would see numbers at 200+
Notice the time frame of the chart, 2h, meaning it won't last for more than a couple weeks and you'll likely have a whole new set of trends.
A move like this into earnings is going to be the big question.
179
189
are two really strong rejection lines. May not be exact, but close. You really need to analyze in real time at this point because move will happen faster and faster.
I would say, should the price not hold 171.00, I would wait to see what happens in the short term, and try and buy the dip if it occurs pre earnings, with a potential trade before, on or right after earnings. I would then be waiting on topside for a short entry rather than pushing my luck as a bull.
If you follow me with trades, you'll know that we essentially speak in probability. Meaning, at or above 189, I'm more likely to screw up than make a good trade, and if I screw up, there is a lot of downside showing, which will do absolutely nothing to cover the mistake (loss). Having said that, if you're a short term trader and familiar with short term trading, yes there are absolutely still chances to trade above this level should it occur.
We would also say, there is a better than average chance that should I wait for some of these topside targets to hit and enter short, I have a better than average chance to both profit, and make more overall money, than trying to time out more really short term trades.
It's all about profitability, risk, percentages, and patience. Waiting for the RIGHT trade IS 1000% better than jumping into a trade you missed because you have FOMO.
There will almost always be another buy, there will almost always be another stock moving up the percentage you missed. Idk, what it would be called in formal terms, but I call it the sniper strategy.
Good luck!!
I've attached all previous AMD charts to this chart.
Opened: AMD March 15th 145/155/210/220 Iron Condor... for a 3.33 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (104.5/60.1) earnings announcement play.
3.33 credit on buying power effect of 6.67; 49.9% ROC at max; 25.0% at 50% max. Delta/theta 2.68/4.65.
So, far TSLA earnings was a small loser; the jury's still out on NFLX (but it's underwater) ... . Third time's the charm?
AMD Faces Stock Slump Despite Q4 Revenue BeatAdvanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ), a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, recently experienced a sharp decline in its stock value following a weaker-than-expected sales forecast for the first quarter. Despite outperforming analyst predictions in the fourth quarter, AMD's stock slumped as it provided a cautious outlook, particularly for its PC chips and central processing units (CPUs). This article delves into the key factors behind the market's reaction, the company's financial performance, and the potential implications for investors.
The Q4 Revenue Beat:
NASDAQ:AMD reported fourth-quarter revenue of $6.17 billion, slightly exceeding the consensus analysts' estimate of $6.12 billion. The robust performance was driven by substantial year-over-year growth in its data center and client segments, recording 38% and 62% respectively. The surge was attributed to increased demand for Instinct graphics processors used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications and recent chip launches.
Sales Guidance Misses the Mark:
The primary reason for NASDAQ:AMD 's stock decline was its sales guidance for the first quarter of 2024, which fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company anticipates Q1 sales of about $5.4 billion, plus or minus $300 million, below the market consensus of $5.73 billion. The softening demand for PC chips and CPUs contributed to this outlook, raising concerns among investors.
Navigating Challenges in PC Chips and CPUs:
NASDAQ:AMD projects a decline in sales growth for its PC chips business in the first quarter, reflecting the challenges in the current market environment. However, it aims to offset this decline by leveraging growth in graphics processing units (GPUs) sales, emphasizing a focus on the lucrative AI market. The company foresees a significant uptick in 2024 AI GPU chip sales, with a revised projection of $3.5 billion, up from the initial forecast of $2 billion.
Strategic Collaborations in the Cloud Space:
NASDAQ:AMD CEO Lisa Su highlighted the company's collaborations with major players like Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta in the cloud space. Su mentioned working closely with these partners on Instinct GPU deployments for internal AI workloads and external offerings. This strategic positioning in the cloud market suggests that NASDAQ:AMD is actively seeking avenues to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-driven solutions.
Technical Analysis and Support Levels:
Let's also considers the technical aspects of NASDAQ:AMD 's stock performance, noting a potential three-month trendline support around $160. The analysis suggests that failure to hold this key level could signal a possible trend reversal. Investors are advised to closely monitor the stock's movement, especially in light of an earnings-driven retracement.
Conclusion:
While NASDAQ:AMD 's fourth-quarter performance showcased strength in key segments, the market's reaction to the sales forecast for Q1 2024 has raised questions among investors. The company's strategic focus on AI GPU chip sales and collaborations in the cloud space reflects its commitment to adapting to evolving market dynamics.
As the semiconductor industry continues to navigate challenges, investors will be closely watching NASDAQ:AMD 's ability to execute its strategy and maintain its competitive edge in the rapidly changing tech landscape.
The Big 4 Earnings Yesterday - THE RESULTThe Big 4 Earnings today - THE RESULT
✅Google
✅Microsoft
❌Starbucks
✅AMD
See the chart for reported vs estimated and how the price finished up today
▫️ NASDAQ:MSFT a clear leader
▫️ NASDAQ:SBUX missed expectations on both fronts
▫️ NASDAQ:GOOGL & NASDAQ:AMD try to hold ATH
EURUSD BULL TIME !! The EUR/USD pair is currently trading near 1.08501. The pair has been experiencing some bearish momentum, with the near-term technical outlook pointing to a build-up of bearish momentum1. However, the USD has been struggling to find demand, which has helped the pair hold its ground1.
If you’re considering a bullish position on EUR/USD, it’s important to monitor key levels of support and resistance. The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the October-December uptrend aligns as critical support1. If EUR/USD falls below that level and starts using it as resistance, 1.0740 (static level) could be seen as interim support before 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement)1. On the upside, 1.0830 (former support, static level) aligns as immediate resistance before 1.0865 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0900 (psychological level, static level)
28 DAYS TP 1.1150 After FOMC
The 4 Big Earnings Releases For Today (updated later)The 4 Big Earnings Releases For Today
I will update these charts later with there reported earnings and revenue. You can see that NASDAQ:MSFT leads the pack with relative strength.
Premarket Google and Microsoft are showing higher prices whilst Starbucks and AMD are showing lower premarket prices (see orange price bars)
NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:SBUX #earnings
PUKA
TESLA & SMCI: the tail of Semis vs EV stocks.Tesla has had a beautiful bounce off support.
This bounce comes on the back of a strong market, charging higher.
If Tesla can hold above $195 it may move for the gap fill. Caution to the wind with Tesla as it has triggered a very bearish breakdown.
SMCI is one of the best performing Semis. Its gone completely parabolic on its earnings.
after gapping up 30% on its pre guide, its now up another 10% in the afterhours.
The semis seem to have an unlimited amount of capital flowing into them.
Look for an intra day short opportunity (day trade) on SMCI
Starbucks to 98 Plus After Earnings !!Financial Performance: In 2023, Starbucks’s revenue was $35.98 billion, an increase of 11.55% compared to the previous year’s $32.25 billion. Earnings were $4.12 billion, an increase of 25.69%2.
Analyst Forecast: According to 21 analysts, the average rating for SBUX stock is “Buy.” The 12-month stock price forecast is $114.35, which is an increase of 23.22% from the latest price2.
Dividend Yield: Starbucks has a dividend yield of 2.4569%1, which could be attractive to income-focused investors.
Growth Estimates: The growth estimate for the next 5 years (per annum) is 16.63%3
TP 98