Phemex Analysis #11: TON_Is it Time to Buy the Dip?PHEMEX:TONUSDT.P experienced a meteoric rise from $2 to its all-time high (ATH) of $8.284, representing a staggering 400% increase in just four months. While the broader cryptocurrency market faced a downturn since March, TON demonstrated resilience, continuing its upward trajectory. However, the recent drop below the 1-day 50 EMA and formation of a lower high at $7.64 suggest a potential bearish trend emerging.
Given the current market conditions, investors are pondering whether it's an opportune moment to accumulate TON at a potentially discounted price. It's noteworthy that several prominent institutions, including Pantera Capital and DWF Labs, maintain a bullish outlook on the project.
To navigate the evolving market dynamics, it's essential to consider potential price scenarios:
Consolidation and Subsequent Rally: The price may stabilize around the $6.35 support level before embarking on another upward movement. If TON surpasses its previous ATH of $8.284 with substantial trading volume, it could signal the onset of a sustained bullish trend. In such a scenario, investors might consider chasing the upward momentum to capitalize on potential gains.
Extended Downtrend: Alternatively, the price could breach the $6.35 support level and continue its downward trajectory, seeking support at $6.0, $5.60, or $4.60. These levels could present attractive entry points for long-term investors if a reversal occurs, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
It's crucial to recognize that the TON ecosystem is still in its nascent stages, with substantial growth prospects on the horizon. The project's potential is undeniable.
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Altcoins
Crypto Altcoin Marketcap Altcoins have not been preforming well over the last few months.
They have been consolidating in a downward wedge. It is time for altcoins to takeoff to new all time highs.
If altcoins breakout of this wedge than we can see a big move to the upside over the next 8-12 months.
$SOLUSD's bull run = done until 2025, back to $50 or belowAs you can see from the chart, price has hit the top of the structure and has begun to reject off of it on the 2D timeframe. I think this is the start of a much larger move down for Solana.
I think it's likely that from here, Solana goes to test the $51 region at a minimum. If it can bounce there, then it's likely that it'll come back up to the top of the structure and break it.
However if it can't, then I think it's likely to continue down to the lower supports before bouncing and we'll see a longer accumulation before we see a breakout.
I lean towards altcoins going down/being in an accumulation phase until Jan - March 2025 then seeing a large move after that.
Once the structure breaks to the upside, initial target is $750.
Would be an amazing trade to accumulate at the lows should this play out.
Let's see what happens over the next 6-12 months and beyond.
ATHUSDT - Golden Pocket to the Moon +100% Gains in Sight!Should we panic or buy the fear? We've had a deep retracement on alts across the board. Let's break it down and figure out our strategy for this long opportunity.
LONG TRADE - CONFLUENCE
Golden Pocket: The price has perfectly retraced to the golden pocket between the 0.618 and 0.666 Fibonacci levels.
Point of Control (POC): This area also coincides with the POC, adding to its significance as a support level.
Fibonacci Speed Fan: The 0.786 level of the Fibonacci speed fan aligns with our golden pocket and POC, reinforcing this area as a strong support zone.
Long Trade Setup: High-Probability Trade
Entry Point:
Golden Pocket: Enter a long trade from the golden pocket area around $0.07.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Below POC: Place the SL just below the golden pocket/POC (tight SL) or place the SL below the swing low at around 0.064.
Target Levels:
First Take Profit (TP1): Set the first TP at $0.10.
Overall Target (TP2): Aim for the overall target at $0.147.
ATH's retracement to the golden pocket offers a prime opportunity for a long trade with an excellent R:R. The confluence of the golden pocket, POC and Fibonacci speed fan makes this a strong support zone and an ideal entry point.
What are your thoughts on this analysis? Are you ready to go long on ATH?
SOL SHORT Building upAnalysis:
Market Structure Shift (MSS): Awaiting confirmation below 187.52 for entry trigger 🛑
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Identified on the 4H chart (shaded grey area) 📊
Price Action: Bearish momentum expected to continue 📉
🎯 Entry: Below 187.52 on confirmation
🛡️ Stop Loss: Above 194.00
🏆 Take Profit: Targeting 176.80 🎯
📅 Time Frame: 4H Chart ⏰
🔔 Trade Plan:
Wait for a close below 187.52 for entry confirmation.
Set stop loss above the resistance at 194.00 to protect against potential reversals.
Aim for the take profit target at 176.80, where significant support is expected.
COTI Textbook Macro Accumulation Entering MarkupCOTI has a beautiful textbook accumulation finishing up here, it's about to enter the markup phase. Altcoin season is starting and this is going to be one of the big winners this cycle! I have targets all the way up to $0.98 based on the fib extensions for wave 5 - this impulsive structure is following all of the rules so far. Wave 4 bounced right at the top of Wave 1 just like it's supposed to.
ETHBTC Shows Lower Degree Bullish Setup FormationWe talked about ETHBTC back on July 5th, where we mentioned and highlighted a completed higher degree corrective decline with strong support zone. Since then, we have seen some short-term slow down, which can be just a lower degree bullish setup formation.
ETHBTC looks to be finally ready for a bullish continuation within higher degree wave C/3 after we noticed an impulsive rally into wave A/1, followed by recent a-b-c corrective setback in B/2. With current sharp bounce, seems like wave B/2 is completed and wave C or 3 already in progress, especially if the price jumps back above 0.05150 region. Bullish ETHBTC pair also indicates that Ethereum could be doing better than Bitcoin in upcoming weeks. Can other ALTcoins too? Is it finally time for ALTseason?
Technical Analysis of Harmony (ONE/USDT)Technical Analysis of Harmony (ONE/USDT)
The chart shows the 4-hour timeframe for Harmony (ONE/USDT) with various technical patterns and indicators highlighted:
Head and Shoulders Pattern:
A clear Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is identified, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder marked.
This pattern generally indicates a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Triangle Pattern:
A descending triangle is noted before the formation of the right shoulder, indicating consolidation before a potential breakout.
Resistance and Support Levels:
Multiple resistance zones are highlighted in orange.
Key support levels are noted, particularly around 0.012 USDT.
Volume:
Volume patterns should be watched closely, especially during breakout attempts.
Indicators:
VMC Cipher B: Shows divergences and potential momentum shifts.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 50.97, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Stochastic Oscillator: Showing values of 57.69 and 64.49, indicating moderate momentum.
Trading Plan
Intraday Trading
Entry: Look for a break above the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern around 0.0148 USDT.
Target: First target is the immediate resistance level around 0.0160 USDT, followed by the next resistance at 0.0180 USDT.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss just below the right shoulder, around 0.0130 USDT.
Indicators to Watch: Monitor the RSI and Stochastic for overbought conditions, and the volume for confirmation of the breakout.
Scalping
Entry: Enter on short-term momentum shifts indicated by the Stochastic oscillator crossing above 60.
Target: Small targets around 0.001 - 0.002 USDT above the entry point.
Stop-Loss: Tight stop-loss around 0.0005 USDT below the entry to manage risk.
Indicators to Watch: Stochastic oscillator and VMC Cipher B for quick momentum changes.
Swing Trading
Entry: After confirmation of the breakout above the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and retesting of support.
Target: First target at 0.0220 USDT as per the extended arrow, with a long-term target at 0.0240 USDT.
Stop-Loss: Below the right shoulder, around 0.0130 USDT.
Indicators to Watch: Look for sustained RSI above 50 and increasing volume to confirm the trend.
Advice for Long Position
The chart suggests a potential bullish reversal indicated by the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
A breakout above the neckline around 0.0148 USDT would be a strong confirmation for a long position.
Monitor key resistance levels at 0.0160, 0.0180, and 0.0220 USDT.
Ensure risk management with appropriate stop-loss levels and keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators for confirmation.
Given the current market conditions, entering a long position upon the breakout with close monitoring of resistance levels can be considered a viable strategy.
LONGS TO RESUME SHORTLY.bchusd is currently i a downward channel towards 420, once the resistance to that channel is broken, we should see price rise to 500. bear it in mind the news event at the end of the week may have some impact on this pair. trade responsibly and with proper risk management. always remember; 'THE MARKET WILL ALWAYS BE HERE' don't fomo.
BTC UPDATE - 29.07.2024 / Will the growth continue?1d: I observe repeated liquidity manipulation of the lower accumulation boundary, followed by aggressive movement to the first target in the form of 69198.7
On 1h Tf: we see an aggressive and balanced order flow.
I want to see the continuation of this upward movement from current through reaction to local imbalance and change of structure on lower tf.
There is also an option of leaving through liquidity overshift in the imbalance zone (69273.9 - 68800).
Buyer's next target on bitcoin: high at 72132.8
Phemex Analysis #10: Solana - Blinks, ETF, and a 60% Surge! The recent surge in PHEMEX:SOLUSDT.P (SOL) price, fueled by the buzz surrounding its "Blinks" feature and speculation surrounding a potential Solana ETF launch, has drawn significant attention from the market. As we analyze the current price action, it's crucial to understand the key resistance and support levels that could shape SOL's future trajectory.
Market Context:
ETF Speculation: The anticipation of a Solana ETF, following the recent launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, has injected a sense of optimism into the market. This speculation has contributed to the recent price surge.
Blinks Feature: The introduction of Solana's "Blinks" feature, a novel technology for faster and more efficient transactions, has generated significant buzz on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter). This positive sentiment has likely played a role in the recent price gains.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance: SOL's price has encountered resistance around the $205-$210 level. This resistance zone represents a significant psychological barrier and could potentially cap further upside movement.
Support: A strong support level has been established at the $120-$110 range. This level represents a key area where buyers are likely to step in and prevent further price declines.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout: A breakout above the $210 resistance level, accompanied by high trading volume, would signal a strong bullish sentiment. This scenario could potentially lead to a significant price rally, particularly if the overall market sentiment remains positive.
Strong Rejection at $210: If the price encounters strong selling pressure at the $210 resistance level, it could trigger a retracement towards the $130 or even the $110 support levels. This scenario could present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in SOL's long-term potential, as the price consolidates around these support levels.
Conclusion:
The recent surge in SOL's price has been driven by a combination of factors, including ETF speculation and the excitement surrounding the "Blinks" feature. While the current price action is bullish, it's important to recognize the potential resistance and support levels that could influence future price movements. Investors should carefully consider these technical factors and the broader market sentiment before making any trading decisions.
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
22/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68,476.68
Last weeks low: $60,656.67
Midpoint: 64,566.67
On my last weekly outlook I commented on the nature of the weeks rally and how it began at weekly low and finished the week at weekly high. The same thing happened almost identically this time with a weekly low of just above $60,000 rallying +13% to reach just shy of the '21 ATH at $69,000.
The recent run of price increases comes after the German Government sold over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B worth of BTC pushing price down. Having now run out of BTC to sell the momentum has shifted and the net inflows have now been consistent ever since.
With the presidential race now in the business end of the race, Trump is scheduled to be at the Bitcoin Conference in the 27th this month and there is There is "speculation that Trump may announce the establishment of a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve". A pro crypto president of the USA would no doubt bring great interest and innovation to the country in the future but also brings about a new element of FOMO to sideliners and doubters of crypto's legitimacy. I can only predict this is a good thing between now and November at the very least ramping up exponentially as we nearer the election date.
This week it's all eyes on the Bitcoin Conference, and also monitoring the progress of the Ethereum ETF. BTC has lead the recovery charge with altcoins still lagging a little behind as focus has once again shifted back towards the majors after a heavy sell off.
THETA - Set for a +50% Rocket Ride?We’ve had an interesting move with a retracement to the Fibonacci 0.618 level and it looks like a head and shoulders pattern is forming.
Fibonacci Retracement: The price has retraced from the entire wave down to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Head and Shoulders Pattern: A head and shoulders pattern seems to be forming, which could lead to a significant price movement if it plays out.
Long Trade Setup:
Entry Points:
Immediate Entry: Consider entering a long position now at the current price level.
Confirmed Entry: Alternatively, wait for a break above the right shoulder and confirm with volume before entering a long trade.
Potential Gain:
Target: If the head and shoulders pattern plays out, we could see a +50% move towards the 0.618 Fibonacci level again.
Volume Monitoring:
Confirmation: Watch the volume closely to confirm a real breakout before making the trade.
Ready to catch the Theta wave? Let’s see if we can ride this setup to some serious gains!
XRP in Range // Long Opportunity maybe soonKey Levels:
Sellside Liquidity Zone:
shaded gray area indicating a potential support level where sell orders may be concentrated.
Resistance Level: horizontal line drawn around the $0.65 mark, suggesting a significant resistance level based on past price actions.
Why ALTSEASON 2.0 is HEREIf you've been following for a wile, you'll know I've been speaking of Elliot Wave theory and cycles - and how, from a macro perspective, we are currently in a multi-month correction before another impulse wave up.
By looking at the TOTAL3 chart, as discussed in the video, it seems likely that this may only be the BEGINNING for altcoins... and you'll see why.
Even though multi-month corrections can be demotivating, patience rewards the faithful!
Check out yesterday's analysis on Altcoins that are strong right now despite the recent dip:
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
Zcash Activity to Increase Late in 2025Zcash is a cryptocurrency that uses advanced cryptography to protect users' privacy and financial information. It was developed from Bitcoin's codebase as a fork, or alternative, to enhance user anonymity. Zcash was launched in 2016 by the Electronic Coin Company (ECC), which was founded by cryptography expert Zooko Wilcox-O'Hearn
ZCASH BITCOIN DIDNT BOTTOM YETLearn Zcash
WHAT ARE ZK-SNARKS?
The acronym zk-SNARK stands for Zero-Knowledge Succinct Non-Interactive Argument of Knowledge and refers to a proof construction where one can prove possession of certain information, e.g., a secret key, without revealing that information, and without any interaction between the prover and verifier.
Zcash was the first widespread application of zk-SNARKs, a novel form of zero-knowledge cryptography. The strong privacy guarantee of Zcash is derived from the fact that shielded transactions in Zcash can be fully encrypted on the blockchain, yet still be verified as valid under the network’s consensus rules by using zk-SNARK proofs.
DOGE - DON'T MISS out on ALTSEASON 2.0 !Yesterday we took a look at altcoins that are strong currently - and today I'm adding another, DOGEUSDT.
✅ From a technical indicator perspective, Doge is ready to reclaim a key trendline, as the price is consolidating right under it (bullish). "Extremely Oversold" is usually a good place to buy:
✅ From a Chart Pattern perspective, we observe an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming, which is also bullish and confirms a direction reversal. Furthermore, a total of -60% has been retraced and this is prime time for a new upwards wave:
✅ From a trendline analysis, we have successfully reclaimed the neckline after closing daily candles ABOVE the old peak:
I conclude to say that according to the trend and all other signs - the price is short term and long term bullish from here.
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BINANCE:DOGEUSDT
Phemex Analysis #9: PT - Unbelievable Gain & Resilience!In this post, we will break down PHEMEX:PTUSDT (PT)'s price performance since its launch, its gains, its resilience, its potential future price movement, and finally, trading suggestions.
Overview of PT's Performance
Launch and Initial Growth
Launch Date: November 30th, 2023
Initial Price: $0.06
Since its launch, PT has demonstrated an extraordinary performance, achieving a substantial rise in value. The token's price has increased over 22 times, reaching its current All-Time High (ATH) of $1.3776. This represents a staggering percentage increase of 2296%, which is noteworthy in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
Current Price Consolidation
Current Price Range: $1.10 to $1.20
Unlike many other cryptocurrencies that have experienced significant corrections from their ATHs, PT has maintained its high value and continues to show resilience. The price is currently consolidating within the $1.10 to $1.20 range, suggesting that it is building a strong base for potential future movements.
Scenarios for PT's Future Price Movement
Scenario 1: Bullish Run
If PT can establish a solid base around the $1.10 area, it may initiate a bullish run. The key levels to watch are the resistance points at $1.23 and $1.36. Breaking these resistance levels with substantial trading volume could propel PT to new ATHs.
Key Resistance Levels: $1.23 and $1.36.
Potential Outcome: Breakthrough of these levels could lead to new ATHs.
Scenario 2: Drop to Support and Consolidate
If PT faces strong rejection at the resistance levels, it may retrace to test the support levels around $1.10 or even $1.00. Consolidation at these levels could provide a foundation for future growth.
Key Support Levels: $1.10 and $1.00.
Potential Outcome: Consolidation at these levels may lead to a stable base for future recovery.
Trading Suggestions
For Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
If PT breaks through the resistance levels of $1.23 and $1.36 with significant volume, it may indicate a strong bullish trend. Traders might consider entering a position to capitalize on the momentum.
Entry Point: Upon confirmation of the breakout above $1.23 or $1.36
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just below the $1.10 level to mitigate potential losses
Target: New ATHs, adjust based on further technical analysis and market conditions
For Scenario 2: Support and Consolidation
If PT retraces to the support levels of $1.10 or $1.00 and shows signs of consolidation, this could present a buying opportunity, especially if the overall market sentiment is shifting to bullish.
Entry Point: Around the $1.10 or $1.00 support levels after confirmation of consolidation
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss slightly below the $1.00 level to protect against further downside
Target: Initial resistance levels at $1.23 and $1.36, with potential for higher gains if the market turns bullish
Conclusion
PT's impressive performance and resilience in maintaining its value make it a unique player in the cryptocurrency market. The upcoming price movements will largely depend on its ability to break through key resistance levels or find support for consolidation. Traders should closely monitor market sentiment, trading volumes, and technical indicators to make informed decisions.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFIInfluence on ERC20 Products
ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFI can be seen in several ways:
Liquidity: ETH’s large market capitalization and liquidity provide a foundation for ERC20 tokens like YFI to tap into, enabling efficient and reliable transactions.
Smart Contract Interoperability: ETH’s presence ensures that smart contracts, including those for ERC20 tokens like YFI, can interact seamlessly with each other and with the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
Developer Adoption: ETH’s widespread adoption and established developer ecosystem encourage the creation and development of new ERC20 tokens, including DeFi protocols like YFI, which in turn benefits from ETH’s infrastructure.
In summary, ETH’s influence on ERC20 products like YFI is indirect yet significant, providing a stable and liquid foundation for the Ethereum ecosystem and enabling the development and growth of #DeFi protocols like #Yearn.finance.