Altcoins Can Drop Another 75% - Worst Case Scenario!In this analysis I want to talk about a long-term parallel channel on TOTAL3, which is the total marketcap of all altcoins.
Preface: before everyone gets offended etc, this is not my most likely scenario. Big chance that this pattern won't play out. Nevertheless, it's important to consider different market outcomes. Trading consists of IF>THEN decisions. Ask yourself, if the market drops another 75% from here, what will you do?
Now into the analysis.
The parallel channel is constructed from the top resistance and anchoring that resistance to the 2020 covid dump.
As seen on the chart, alts lost over 92% of their value in the 2018 cycle. Currently, alts have lost 75% of their worth during the last cycle. If alts were to go down towards the bottom yellow support, they could lose around 85%-88% (depends on time) value.
In other words, if this worst case scenario were to play out, alts could lose 70%-7% of their CURRENT value.
Is this pattern likely? No. Should you prepare for it? Yes. Keep it simple, assume that the bottom support area is a great long-term entry point and can function as a bear-market bottom in case we go down further.
There is definitely some risk of a recession as per my last yield-curve analysis. Furthermore, the SAHM Rule Recession indicator (google it) signals that a recession is coming. If the stock markets would go down like in 2001 and 2007, we're in for a wild ride in crypto.
Happy to hear your thoughts.
Altcoins
TON of bricks?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
I can see several paths here.
4.733 kills impulse up/completes impulse down.
6.00 from here could be ZZ complete.
4.733 break, could flip from support to resistance.
Some IF:THEN scenarios on deck here.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
Dogs: Sit-up or roll over?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
The DOGS/USDT 1-hour chart indicates a potential Elliott Wave structure, with a completed 5-wave uptrend followed by an ABC correction, suggesting the market could be setting up for a new upward move if key levels hold. However, the move from the proposed end of the C wave is not forming an ideal motive wave.
Key Levels:
Support: The significant support zone around 0.0012091 could serve as a foundation for a potential bounce, with 0.0012879 currently acting as support.
Resistance: Resistance is noted at 0.0013205 and 0.0013788. As the price approaches these levels, it may encounter selling pressure. For a sustained bullish trend, these levels need to be broken and flipped into support.
Technical Indicators:
A descending trendline from the peak of wave 5 underscores the bearish trend. The price is testing a break above this trendline, which could signal a trend reversal if it holds.
A Fibonacci retracement at the 0.618 level would add validity to the bullish scenario with a break of it excluding the potential for algorithmic participation.
Scenarios:
Bullish: If the price can break above the descending trendline and maintain above the 0.0012091 support, it could target higher resistance levels. Successfully breaking and converting these into support would suggest a continuation of the bullish trend.
Bearish: Failure to hold above the 0.0012091 support level may lead to further declines, reinforcing the bearish trend.
Conclusion: DOGS/USDT is at a pivotal juncture. Holding above the descending trendline supports a bullish outlook, while failure to maintain support levels could signal more downside. Monitoring price action around these key levels will be crucial for determining the next move.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
Is an Altcoins rally coming? When? ETH/BTC 1W chart;CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:BTC 1W chart;
On the chart we see two falling trend lines (red dash), one rising trend line (green dash). The price is in this range.
It bounced 2 times from the OB resistance just above it. This place is weakened. It can also be interpreted that if it weakens enough, it may go up to the OB area above.
It touched the lower green trend line 3 times and the last time it touched it, the mismatch on the RSI side stands out. So it gave an upward signal.
The big red candle on the right shows the monthly volume. In other words, since the month started, it has gone down without going up.
The appreciation of #Eth against #Btc means that altcoins are also appreciating. Accordingly, it is expected that a movement in altcoins will begin. Likewise, I have previously informed that many of the altcoins are in strong bottoms and trend compression.
Although there is a downtrend extending from September 2022 to the present day, a close above the -OB level just above the current level will be the beginning of an upward trend. Therefore, it is important to follow this level.
DOGS Analysis==>>Pumping +20%/+30%Today, I want to analyze the DOGS Telegram project for you. The DOGS token has been listed in various exchanges for less than three days, and its great popularity caused a six-hour interruption on the TON blockchain .
But the bad luck of the DOGS project is that its listing coincides with the arrest of Pavel Durov (the founder of Telegram) in France .
What is the DOGS!?
Dogs Community is a vibrant, community-driven initiative built on the TON Blockchain, designed to leverage Telegram's vast user base and native meme culture. Centered around a beloved dog mascot originally created by Telegram's founder, the project aims to introduce millions to blockchain technology through tokenized stickers, fostering a fun and engaging ecosystem with a focus on community ownership and fair rewards distribution.
Due to the fact that the DOGS token has been listed for less than 3 days , there are few candles visible in the chart, but I will try to show you the support and resistance zones and if you intend to buy or sell the DOGS token You can decide better.
DOGS is currently moving near the Support zone($0.00135-$0.00128) and Support line .
According to Elliott's wave theory , the DOGS token seems to be completing the main wave 4 .
I expect DOGS to go UP to $0.00165 at least.
Note: The increase or decrease of the DOGS token can be directly related to Pavel Durov's court case.
Note: If DOGS goes below the Support zone($0.00135-$0.00128), we should expect further corrections to this token.
Do you have the DOGS token or not❗️❓ Did you sell it or do you want to keep it❗️❓
DOGS Analyze (DOGSUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
RUNE - BIG GAIN (BIG PICTURE)Dear friends,
I will show another coin next to the LINK where I see Elliot wave expressed.. For LINKCHAIN, you have an analysis below this post..
First I would like to show my old projections related to RUNE and the exact take profit and return to DCA on it..
Here is a projection of profit taking.. and an accurately expressed mass jump of the first wave..
Then marked zones for returning to the market.
Now that all that has happened, I have scenario A and B. The first scenario is that the bottom is behind us and that the first purchase is an excellent decision, on the other hand, we also have plan B because there is great resistance at $5.
If the price does not show strength, the last buying target would be 2.2. Below that there is a very large volume and below that the door opens for a big risk (FOR NOW I'M VERY BULLISH)
The first target will be scalar from $30 and on.
This will all happen only if BTC manages to break the ATH
Fetch.AI Symmetrical Triangle SetupFET has formed a symmetrical triangle on higher time frames, indicating that a breakout is coming and which will help us understand whether bears or bulls will dominate in the near future.
The price is reacting to the weekly SMMA and due to the confluence with some previous supports, the $0.80 level is very strong and can support the price, the RSI is also in the oversold region.
If the price breaks the triangle to the upside with confirmation, I will open a long trade, I think this is the most likely scenario, with the first target at $1.48.
However, be prepared for both scenarios, because if the price breaks the triangle downwards, it is because the downtrend is still strong and it will be a bearish setup.
ETH - Follow The Trend!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈ETH has been overall bullish, trading inside the flat rising channel in orange.
Moreover, ETH is approaching a massive round number $2500.
🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the $2500 and lower orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #ETH approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Phemex Analysis #16: TON - A Calculated Dip or a Risky Gamble?The recent turbulence surrounding Telegram has undoubtedly impacted the TON market. While the potential for a rebound exists, it's crucial to approach this situation with caution and a well-informed strategy. For investors who believe in TON's long-term prospects, understanding key technical support levels can provide valuable insights for potential entry points.
Support Levels
$4.60: A historically strong support level, indicating potential buying interest at this price.
$3.30: While untested, it could offer robust support based on past performance.
$2.15: This is the most critical support level. A break below this could signal a more extended downtrend.
Entry Strategies
Higher Probability: Purchasing slightly above the support level can increase the likelihood of a successful entry, but it also carries a higher risk.
Lower Risk: Buying at or below the support level offers a more conservative approach, but it may involve potential slippage or missed opportunities.
Additional Considerations
Bitcoin's Influence: Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price, as it often sets the tone for the broader cryptocurrency market.
Telegram's Founder: News related to Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram and TON, can significantly impact the price.
Conclusion
While TON's long-term potential remains promising, the current market conditions demand a cautious approach. Conduct thorough research, consider your risk tolerance, and utilize technical analysis to make informed decisions.
Note: Have you tried Phemex’s Multiple Watchlists yet? We’re the first crypto exchange to offer fully customizable watchlists, allowing you to rename, rearrange, and even place basket orders on all the coins within your lists.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
TON - TONS of COINS MOVING!!!Why not try to bet on things with strength?
This one still keeping the trend intact. Many have been acted strongly like NYSE:FET LSE:ONDO $RUNE. Worth to try this one out.
Had two bearish retest at $7 with no real follow through. Still staying above $6.4.
Time to go long and wait what the weekend can bring us.
Others - Alts finally starting to bottom!Top 100 currencies without the top 15, especially without stable currencies that just add dead weight to the index.
Forming a big liquidity grab from the last oscillating low and most pivotal point of this current move,
Slowly moving away from "no man's land" with a good chance to close above this week.
The daily chart is currently above the safety zone and a change in character will occur if $200 billion is regained (on the daily).
The chart looks very good from a technical perspective, it is only a matter of time before the uptrend confirms.
Perfect long entry yesterday and should hold above 174B
26/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,969.66
Last weeks low: $57,798.14
Midpoint: $61,383.90
Another week has passed in the crypto world and another week of Bitcoin recovery. Now hovering around $64,000 zone after a battle around the range Midpoint which was also the 4H 200EMA, BTC has flipped bullish on all major MA's and is looking to target the '21 ATH which has historically been the area where BTC has struggled in the last few months.
With the US presidential election nearing and the FED rate cuts approaching even sooner, there are a lot of significant FA factors to consider. I think most people were under the impression that the ETF's and the halving would have more of an instant impact on price, we have seen a rally for the BTC ETF but that classic post halving boost has not yet panned out. It does have the feeling of all stars are aligning in the coming months to push through that ~$70k resistance and enter price discovery. Current sentiment is mostly pure boredom and that has lead to impulse moves in the past.
For now I think the important places to look are in the altcoin space, having been decimated in the last few months now is a good time to seek out strong fundamental projects that are looking to lead the way for the next year or so. The altcoin season index is currently @ 22/100 indicating that the market is heavily Bitcoin dominated, suggesting that altcoins need to play catch-up and will outperform BTC by doing so.
Crypto Market About To Explode Conventional Technical Analysis Wisdom Suggests That Markets Rarely Move In Straight Lines, Instead Exhibiting Complex Patterns Like Higher Highs And Higher Lows (Uptrend), Lower Highs And Lower Lows (Downtrend), Consolidations (Sideways Movement), And Breakouts (Sudden Price Movements). Your Observation About The Altcoin Market Cap Chart Is Insightful, Noting The Consolidation From April To October Last Year Led To A Breakout And Significant Gains. Similarly, The Current Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern Is Comparable To A Bullish Pennant, Indicating A Potential Breakout Soon. If Successful, This Breakout Could Propel The Entire Altcoin Market Towards New All-Time Highs
WIF - Bulls need to STEP UP here!Probably the best possible setup that has been presented in the last few days. I was looking forward to this recovery and retesting $1.5.
As long as it stays above the level, things will be bright. Below and I should start to cut the trade.
Momentum should build above $1.63, but I decided to take the trade now as I have a clear invalidation zone in case it turns against me.
ETH - 4H Buy SetupBINANCE:ETHUSDT has rebounded strongly from its key support zones and is currently consolidating above a support zone. With the price at the bottom of the consolidation zone, this presents a good buying opportunity, with potential for further upside towards higher targets. Consider setting a logical stop loss to manage risk.
BTC - Bullish Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising wedge channel in brown.
Yesterday, after Jerome Powell's speech, BTC jumped above the $60,000 zone.
🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower brown trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
XRPUSD to the moon?The break of 0.63250 is still in progress...
There are a few confluences that are signalling a bullish scenario playing out
1. Price could finally closed above the minor resistance at 0.60138 it only has a day and less than 20 hours to close, which could mean at the break of the high, the range towards 0.63250 could be filled
2. There is a Golden Cross
3. A new higher low/support formed at the breakout level, signalling a break and retest play
4. Three Successive bullish candles
5. USD weakness due to anticipated rate cuts
Let's see if the current weekly candle will close above minor resistance level. 🚀🚀
Altcoin Preparing For Massive Pump In Coming Months Market Cap Is Key Indicator To Identify Markets Movements And Currently Its Looking Extremely Bullish Altcoins Market Consolidating Within Perfect Bullish Flag
Market Approaching Towards Bullish Flags Key Resistance Expecting Breakout Too Incase Of Successful Breakout Altcoins Can Surpass Recent Highs Easily Keep Eyes On It For Breakout
DOLLAR down BITCOIN upThe DOLLAR is the worlds #1 trade and reserve currency
#GOLD is the KING of Anti Fiat
#Bitcoin is attempting to replace GOLD in the mindshare of people
(to a certain extent it has, considering from where it started from just a brief 15 years ago)
So observing the major trends of the #DXY is crucial to determine how to place your bets
and how much risk you should be taking on.
*** The caveat being that the DXY is just measuring the dollar mainly against the Euro and various other major Fiats that become more worthless over the years ... so these decades long gyrations don't actual show you how poorly these #fiat currencies store your value.****
I believe #Crypto is on the cusp of some spectacular returns
The #BTC.d will soon reverse
You will see #Ethereum and the # altcoins gain some real strength once grayscale has sold down much of it's ETH holdings.
The 4 year cycle is back on track ... after running too soon in the cycle.
Historically Q4 of a Bitcoin halving year is the start of some explosive up moves.
We have been waiting 4 years for this...
Do you want to wait another 4 years for 2028 to experience the next Crypto meltup?
Bitcoin Dominance Update: Potential Market Dump!The Bitcoin Dominance chart has just reached a key resistance level, which is expected to trigger a rejection and initiate alt-season. However, given the market's volatility and technical structure, another short-term bearish scenario is also anticipated. In this scenario, BTC dominance could spike up to 67% over the next two months, potentially until November-December 2024. On the other hand, if the resistance level is rejected, we can expect a market pump accompanied by a strong alt-season. DYOR
TOTAL3 altcoin season!!I’m feeling incredibly bullish about the rest of this year, especially with the anticipated rate cuts in September. I’m confident that within the next 3-11 weeks, we could be entering an explosive altcoin season, where these assets will rocket to Valhalla, delivering massive gains of x10 to x30.