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$C6L Swing Trade AnalysisIn this post, I will be going in detail with regards to my view of $C6L from a technical perspective. As of the time that I am writing this post, $C6L is trading at $3.560. I am fully aware that, right now, it may not be the best time to invest in the airline industry due to the uncertainties that surround it. We do not know when a vaccine will be developed, we do not know when a newly developed vaccine will be available for the masses, we do not know whether $C6L will be able to survive the crisis, we do not know whether there will be a new wave of COVID-19 infection, we do not know when international travel will resume, we do not know how long it will take before travelers overcome the fear of getting infected and start traveling in the future. I can write a whole list of reasons why investing in C6L, or any airline company right now is too early. As such, currently, I am bearish on $C6L as long as international traveling is not widely allowed and COVID-19 vaccines are not available for the masses yet. However, despite being aware of all of the above, I still have small positions in $C6L which averaged up to a cost price of $3.652. This is a very long term position that I entered with money that I am comfortable with losing. The reason I did so was that after doing my own due diligence, I strongly believe that $C6L will be able to pull through the COVID-19 crisis because of its strong fundamentals and the financial backing that Singapore provides to the company. Singapore will not let $C6L go under. Of course, this is a very speculative play on my part, so I hope that before you enter into a position into $C6L, think twice, and ensure that you are able to stomach the potential downside that any airline industry investment can bring during such an uncertain period. Technical Analysis I believed that I have broken down the technical aspect of $CCL's chart quite clearly in the candlestick chart above, but just to emphasis on a few things: 1. I strongly believe that if the support zone that I've marked with a star is breached + if everything else remains status quo, or possibly, gets worse, we will definitely revisit $3.200. If the situation remains the same or worse after the retest of $3.200, we will undoubtedly breach it and enter the $3.000 zone and beyond. As such, I believe that right now, we are at a very crucial level from a technical perspective. 2. This is similar to the first point, but I want to emphasize that the upside potential for $C6L is bleak. All, if not most of the movements towards the upside will be extremely dependent on the news releases. Furthermore, even if there are news releases that positively impact $C6L, the upward movement will not be sustainable unless the news is related to confirmation of vaccines being successfully developed and distributed, or if it is regarding a widespread resume of air travel. 3. I believe that currently, should COVID-19 eases and the demand for air travel rises, the fair value of $C6L will be somewhere between $5.500 to $6.000. So, if prices of $C6L push up, my profit target will be right around there. 4. Lastly, I believe that an optimal entry price will be whichever price that $C6L is at when news of vaccines is made available in Singapore (or when there is a news release with a similar impact scale-wise). However, there's also the saying that "Time in the market beats timing the market". As such, you can still enter a small position at the current market price and slowly average down/up; but that is provided that you are able to stomach the possible downside that has still yet to come. Disclaimer I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment, or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. If this post has helped you out in making your investment/trading decision, do it give it a like, and follow for more updates regarding this ticker symbol!
SGX:C6LLong
by UnknownUnicorn6361804
August 30 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Minimal Excess; Untested POCs; Gaps Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with the S&P 500 establishing a new all-time high on broad gains from all sectors. Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s higher open on the FDA’s approval for emergency use of antibody-rich plasma on COVID-19 patients, was followed by a balanced, low-volume session which migrated value higher. On Tuesday, the market continued squeezing overnight on positive trade news and supportive delta, before correcting inventory down to a prior session low-volume area, and making a failed attempt at the overnight high. Wednesday’s U.S. session resolved Tuesday’s overnight weak high as investors flocked to momentum. The tone continued through Friday as the Federal Reserve’s policy shift on inflation bolstered gains in all 11 of the S&P 500 sectors. Overall, in light of the short-term, momentum-driven activity and poor structure on both sides of the market, the risks for a near-term correction have increased. That said, heavily-weighted index constituents are still in an uptrend and all sectors saw gains. So, as of now, the path of least resistance is still up. However, if momentum was to fade, there’s the potential for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the recent anxiety-driven activity. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a strategy which will target an average rate of inflation of 2%. In a statement on the development, Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe Ltd., noted: “Whereas previously, the Fed would be willing to hike interest rates as the labour market approached estimates of maximum employment, Powell has made it clear that uncertainty around these estimates mean that they will not be relied upon as much in the future. Instead, Powell stated ‘employment can run at or above real-time estimates of its maximum level without causing concern, unless accompanied by signs of unwanted increases in inflation’. This is a clear break with prevailing policy wisdom going back as far as the 1980s - its significance is difficult to overstate.” The development comes after the Fed’s monetary policy, after the last financial crisis, failed to stimulate economic activity sufficiently to lift inflation over 2%. As a result, this new shift means the Federal Reserve will tolerate hot inflation and allow employment to drop below inflationary levels. Key Events: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index; CoreLogic Home Price Index; ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Reports; Vehicle Sales; ADP National Employment; Challenger Layoffs; Jobless Claims; International Trade and Trade Balance; Non-farm Payrolls. Recent News: Economic recovery remains tenuous as pandemic fear persists. bit.ly Banks eye layoffs as short-term crisis ends, long-term costs emerge. reut.rs August surge in corporate bond issuance mostly re-financed old debt. bit.ly Per Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC), margin debt broke out, and that’s bullish. bit.ly European banks suffer more than US peers in the corona crisis. bit.ly BlackRock Inc Investment Institute’s (NYSE: BLK) 2020 midyear outlook. bit.ly Energy and consumer-dependent industries see most downgrades. bit.ly Retail activity in the options market is up 75% over the past 18 months. bit.ly TTM loan default rate climbs for 8 straight months, retail hits 19%. bit.ly Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) joins Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) TikTok bid. reut.rs Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) finds flaws in fuselage of Dreamliner; eight aircraft affected. reut.rs Venture funds are raising more than ever in 2020, and spending at a good pace, too. bit.ly Federal Reserve targets average inflation, signaling it will tolerate an overshoot. bloom.bg NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) end-markets boost revenue, a credit positive. bit.ly American Express Company’s (NYSE: AXP) acquisition of Kabbage, credit positive. bit.ly Denmark’s proposed special corporate tax is credit negative for the banking sector. bit.ly China moves ahead with its version of a central bank digital currency, Fed follows. bit.ly The PMI report shows V-shaped recovery in services and manufacturing sectors. bit.ly Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) said 25% layoffs may be permanent. bloom.bg Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: FRM), Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN), and Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) to join Dow index on August 31. bit.ly Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) warns of slow sales after the work-from-home boom. reut.rs Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND) begins direct online sales of plant-based patties. reut.rs Gold closely linked to liquidity; the more money available, the higher gold trades. bloom.bg Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) launched its first fitness band. reut.rs Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) to pay more than $110 million in back taxes in France. reut.rs American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) plans to cut 19,000 jobs in October. reut.rs Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) plans to expand its services across Quebec. reut.rs Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) faces antitrust challenges from Indian sellers. reut.rs U.S. and China officials reaffirm commitment to Phase 1 trade deal in phone call. reut.rs Sentiment: 33.1% Bullish, 28.3% Neutral, 39.6% Bearish as of 8/26/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 4,263,904,049 as of 8/28/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 41% as of 8/28/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
$BA Reversal off Recent LowsBoeing has been one of the many COVID-hit stocks that has seriously underperformed in this rally, after all it’s still below the 50% retracement line from 2020 highs-to-lows. While BA fundamentally may not be in the clear, technically it is displaying some signals that may be an opportunity worth taking the risk on. The Charts 1D Chart with 50, 100day, & 200day MA. Daily TTM squeeze has not released yet while momentum is up. 1hr Chart with flat line resistance at $179 & then 100day/gap fill at $181. Hourly TTM squeeze has not released yet while momentum is up. 30min Chart is virtually same as 1hr except for squeeze momentum which its different as we have a different candle length. The Trade BA traded down after recent earnings followed by a bounce off the 100day MA at $170. The technicals after this bounce are positive. BA reversed off the 100day back into the 21day historical range & formed a small inverted H&S in doing so As it reversed off the lows, BA actually managed to break out of a trend resistance line and pop to $190 -flat line resistance- only to come back down below trend on a gap down. BA is essentially coiling, and we can see this in the TTM Squeeze. On both the hourly and daily squeezes momentum has turned up while both are yet to cross 0 level and both yet to release out of squeezes. The 100day at $181 may be a key level to go long at (despite the fact that all market participants are aware of BA’s 100day which may make a breakout above that level trickier), and a sustained move above $184 can lead up back to $190 and then to $200. Additionally, a sustained break above the downward trend resistance line on charts would be a bullish long-signal. It should be noted that we just broke above this trend resistance last week only to fall back under end of last week; in other words, watch out for more false breakouts. Another aspect of this trade is the money flow. BA is obviously a large component of both XLI & DIA and generally moves with its sector. XLI is considered part of the “value” trade, and it is worth noting that the “value” trade has been in relative fashion for the past couple weeks with notable large moves last week for the first time in a while. If we look at some of BA’s suppliers like ATI SPR whose business relies **heavily** upon BA we find nearly identical -bullish reversal- chart patterns. On top of this, XLI DIA SPR all had bullish options activity last week with XLI SPR calls bought & DIA unusual put sells. Note also the strength not only in XLI but across value in XLF XOP, and more specifically JETS. JETS had a nice move off the lows and actually broke out above $17.20 last week only to retest that breakout on Friday. A continued move higher in other COVID-hit & sector related stocks would likely bode well for BA. It is my intention to observe my hypothesis and take calculated risk if I want to play it. To keep to my discipline, I am looking to go long on trendline break with a starter (⅓ or ¼ position of 9/18 calls, 65delta for safety or 35delta for leverage) and will potentially add if we can get a sustained move above $184. My target on this trade is initially a retest of $190 which is recent resistance highs off bounce from lows August 3rd and then $200 with a high target of $220. I do not expect the trade to go straight up, and it is possible none of this plays out as observed - BA has been a choppy trade over the past few months to say the least and it’s not like the fundamental business has improved. With discipline regarding entries and exits risk is lowered & players have the ability to take this trade as both a move to the 100day and a potential move above it to $190 or higher. It may be worth adding that I'm looking at industrials on the whole to breakout with notable setups in MLM FLR MTZ SUM, WM, SPR ATI JETS.
NYSE:BALong
by UnknownUnicorn7308096
Resistance becomes support / Long AIRBUSIdea: the orange boxes are our monthly-level price-range and now we can hold the previous resistance as support. What do you think? Share your idea and enjoy our opinion. REMOVE YOUR BIAS! 4 Hour-Chart: Weekly-Chart: Monthly-Chart: 1). Limit Buy: 69.20€ or 69.13€ 2). Limit Buy: 68.52€ 3). Limit Buy: 66.30€ Average price: 67.58€ 1). Take Profit: 78.75€ (+13.87%) 2). Take Profit: 82.07€ (+19.76%) 3). Take Profit: 97.32€ (+41.98%) Stop Loss: 65.20 (-3.55% from average price) We expect for our long-term target the following price-range: 106.28€ - 113.90€ (+55%) We always change our stop loss into profit if we reach our first take profit target! Thanks, Disziplinierter_Trader
XETR:AIRLong
by UnknownUnicorn2089696
Spirit Aerosystems a play or not?Spirit Aerosystems isn't spirit airlines. It's own by boeing and makes parts for boeing and inovates in the aerospace sector and from its website is also into space with a virgin galactic partnership. Now I've been watching this for awhile, yet I'm still not sure if i should go in but heres some levels I'm looking at. Current findings -Their earnings is they are losing money, yet they are tied into boeing and if boeing isn't making money they aren't either -They have ties to the space sector, which comparing it to the other space stocks, they are underperforming -They pay divends, so you could become a long term holder and get paid while hoping this company can recover after COVID -Boeing has had a 34% drop in its price around June, yet SPR has had about a 50% drop giving this stock a potentional upside of 20% to go side by side with boeing. This reflects that SPR is struggling and can be shown as this company wants to layoff over 1400 people. From a quick search they have just over 5k people working from them. Big hit on their workforce short term. Buy In -Now I've market that you may take a position at this level with a 20% bounce back, yet I'll be watching for two key levels. 1: Sub 20 dollars since to be a fair value and has gone down as low as 16.70 (with dropping lower, yet springing back). Sub 20 dollar since like a good start if you want to dip your toes in. 2: An optmistic bull and don't mind gambling is taking a position in when it gets too 24.12-24.5 hoping for a breakout. Now this same level could be profit takers, yet around May 27th when it hit this level it broke out and giving a $12 high profit per a share. Roughly 30% return. Final Thoughts Its interesting stock and will just wait if it goes sub 20 and you could be worried if boeing would cut this company to cut boeing's loses, yet thats the doom mindset and don't think that will happen. I'll remain Neutral on this stock
NYSE:SPR
by nathanielx9
POLITICAL HELP? VOLUME COULDN'T HELP! - NAS - DAILYDespite the huge volumes, we have observed forces pushing the market down. Here the technical analysis is just a confirmation of what obviously happen in the real world, no bias. The market has responded to the volumes multiple pushes with clear candle sticks announcing that the probability to see the price going down is very high and won't stop yet. The positive side, is that if there is any political action to save the company, then, we could see the market first trying to fill the past gape and run very quickly, thereafter, to the range that it has left at the beginning of the year, around the end of February. For the moment, it looks like a probable worse case scenario...wind up, bankruptcy...or other. September will be a very important month in Europe as all holidays end and political decisions might be taken in regard of the extension of restrictions or their ease.
OSL:NASShort
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
4