$LUV - Elliot Wave Theory- Wave 5 Push to Price Target of $42+ Follow me for MORE PICKS!
Welcome to Tony's Picks
I enjoy analyzing charts and have come across this interesting idea that I would like to share for discussion.
After our March - May crash I spot a quick trend to completion followed by a typical zig zag (5-3-5) counter trend. If this idea proves true I see us continue another trendy move and enter a long wave 5 in orange and wave 3 in black. Seems like this could be a long wide wave as airlines try their best to recover from our recent lows. With talk of stimulus and airline bailout plus southwest having a notoriously conservative balance sheet I see Southwest getting back to normal quicker than their competition. Personally will be looking to DCA over the next couple of months.
***At time of writing this post I DO own shares of Southwest ($LUV)***
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(Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice, this is my opinion only and is solely for entertainment purposes)
Airlines
Air new zealand clear bull runThe test for the bullish conditions was confirmed on 25th of September with a strong bounce and it seems that $1.30 resistance has now turned into support which indicates huge potential for last few months of this year and early months of next year in conjunction with the trans Tasman bubble opening on the 17th of October.
ADL is rising nicely
Price forecast 20-30% gain within the following 4 months
defiantly a test of our bullish channel at $2.0
XSPA Our patience is running out and ready for a break outFor the past 24 trading days the RSI has been trading in the 20-30 range and yesterday (9/28) is the first day it reached slightly above 40 signaling more confidence than it has in the last month. The volume traded today, Sept. 29 (2.1 million, RSI 41.51) was 3 million less than the day before, Sept. 28 (5.1 million, RSI 44.51) which I am going to assume the bulls shook out the last of the bears. The Bollinger Bands are coming to a squeeze after bouncing around for the whole month of September trading in a tunnel between $1.66-2.12. XSPA needs news... bad. Were tonight's debates about a vaccine enough to push this back above its 50 day trading average of 2.79? XSPA needs GREAT news to push this up 47% so it can begin trading above the 50 DMA, as it has been since August 6 since the last time it traded above the 50 DMA. Current support of 1.66 used to be resistance prior to the news of XSPA contract signing with JFK airport on May 22. The breakout from a bullish flag often results in a powerful move higher, usually measuring the length of the prior flag pole but first this must past resistance (R2) of 2.12. Once this has been achieved, (R3) 3.74, and (R4) 4.74 should soon follow. It is inevitable that business is picking up, people need to travel for work, people WANT a vacation AWAY from home, and airports will forever be accused of being a breeding ground for sickness and disease. There is NO reason XSPA's COVID testing/wellness concept at airports will fail unless it fails internally. Yes, I am a bag holder for now, but you cannot lose if you do not sell. I believe this is a long hold at least until after the election which brings us to holiday travel. If XSPA is operational at all major airports for holiday travelers, just maybe it can break its 52 week high of 8.82
AAL Long TermWith airline traffic picking up after 3 months of quarantine, Airlines are starting to work up to its ATH. AAL was at $30.16 before the pandemic hit in early march. In 2018 ATH was around $59.00. Airlines have been getting loans from the Government. AAL has secured 5.5 billion in loans and is looking to secure more by the end of September. In my opinion LUV, DAL, and SAVE are better airlines to invest in or JETS (airline ETF, all airlines), keeping in mind AAL could possibly file for bankruptcy. Shares for your long term portfolio or ITM Calls for 2021 or 2022 could be good for AAL or either of these stocks I mentioned.
credit: Danny Devan
AAL - Ready For Take Off? A Huge week is coming up for the airline industry next week. As you can recall, the Stimulus Package passed back in March provided the airlines with $25 billion in aid as long as they didn't let go of any their employees for a certain period of time. That certain period of time expires September 30th.
The airlines are asking Congress for additional aid and the clock is ticking. The airlines argue that unlike other traditional jobs, airline employees (pilots, crew, flight attendants, etc.) require extensive training. If you let go of these employees, you can't just hire new ones at the flick of a switch as pilots, flight attendants and mechanics all must be certified by the government and receive proper training.
If additional aid is not given, the airlines are estimating on releasing the following:
American Airlines - 19,000 workers
United Airlines Holdings - 16,000
Delta Air Lines - will delay the effective date for a potential 220 pilot furloughs to Nov. 1
Southwest Airlines Co. have said they will avoid most forced cuts for now, after thousands of workers retired early or took leaves
That being said, either aid is given or 35,000+ more citizens will be added to the unemployment sheet for the month. Personally, we don't see how aid is not given to avoid this grim scenario. This takes us to the TA part:
TA:
We've been accumulating AAL between $11.50-$14.00 since August if you check our previous AAL posts. We think the additional aid will be a huge move up for the stock. Theres several layers of resistance but wouldn't be surprised with this kind of news to see a shot straight to the 200ma at around $16.50 at the moment.
Targets:
1. $16.45 area (where the 200MA will be)
2. $19.10 (top of our resistance line in pink)
3. $19.93 (fib retracement level)
4. $22.73 (previous high)
Now, this a large pump, but very possible. As always, this is a risk. The government could very well delay the aid as it does not come to an agreement, employees are laid off, aid comes later, etc. This is 2020 and worse things have happened. We have our stop losses at $10.75 . Keeping a close watch on this one.
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DELTA - its doesn't look greatThanks for viewing and sorry all those Aviation types who are hurting.
Just a short one,
Demand is deeply impacted, and there are yet to be any signs of a pick-up as yet.
Stocks don't often lose 69% in 60 days and then just turn around and head for new all-time highs. Especially, when two studies came out last week showing how the virus - that shall not be named - can easily spread on-board aircraft.
After a solid rejection at the 200EMA I am watching the $17.55 level as support, but I don't expect it to hold. After that, ~$14 at the 1.618 extension on what I believe may be the start of wave 5 down..
This is based 99% on TA and 1% the general environment presently. I don't want it to happen, that is just where I see the price going. I am not short Delta, but I also won't be a buyer at lower prices.
Delta Slow climbAlthough earnings reports are showing to be weaker than than of other airlines, Delta has been able to reduce their cash burn rate and help to mitigate overall losses. After taking a sharp drop down from progressive movement upwards, the technicals are starting to show a potential support level testing a higher low. Using a standard deviation measurement and taking into account current trend lines the target range for profit is above the trend line within the range.
AAL Non-MovementDirectional plays within some of the airline stocks have now become obsolete as volatility has dropped significantly for the sector. The last three earnings reports have all been in at a loss with final reports being slight better than estimated. The market is expecting the worst right now which is in turn affecting the stocks ability to rise.
1 standard deviation range set to monitor price range for Iron Condor strategies.
Bullish Coming Months (Waiting vaccine News then Airlines FLY)Currently, Airlines under pressure due to Covid-19 Restrivation for travelling but once Vaccine news comes in the market expecting all airlines share will jump 20-50%.
Long term bullish Trend.
🛑SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
✅S1= 98$
✅S2=85$
✴️R1=145$
✴️R2=185$
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