AAL Retracement into Long?AAL broke out nicely from the previous resistance (now support) level on a long bullish run. Price has retraced and formed a descending triangle.
Lots of confluence to support a long here. With a TP a the previous high, just pre-gap. My entry at this stage would give me a 72% gain at a Risk to Reward of 7 to 1.
A trade with this R:R ratio means that you could have 6 losing trades in a row, and still make money. These are the kinds of quality trades you should be taking.
I'll be posting more trade ideas week on week. Follow me for more.
Airlines
Airline Companies Preparing For "Takeoff"The aviation industry supports more than 65 million jobs around the world and $2.7 trillion in world economic activity (3.6% of global gross domestic product). By 2036, it is expected that aviation will generate $5.7 trillion in GDP and the number of air travelers is expected to grow to 8.2 billion from 4.4 billion air travelers in 2018. It is clear the importance of aviation in the tourism industry, which is one of the world’s largest industries, but it also provides an immeasurable contribution to global trade, business, and economic development.
Between 2009 and 2017, revenue in the global aviation industry grew at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of around 5.9%, reaching $754 billion in 2017. Pre COVID-19, Commercial airlines were expected to generate a combined revenue of $872 billion for 2020.
In early April, worldwide flights were down almost 80%, making the COVID-19 the worst impact in the airline industry. Approximately $50 billion of international passenger revenue was lost from Jan to Apr 2020. According to ICAO, airlines may be faced with 1.5 billion fewer international air travelers this year.
TUI Flights Accumulation Phaze With the recent crisis across the world we saw a major decrease in airliner flights, Resulting in multiple booking agency's dropping rapidly over the last few months.
Whilst multiple countrys are still and a lockdown period, we can start to look forward to 2021. With That being said, I think it would be great opportunity to pickup some shares looking for a longterm reversal
Jets with good risk reward ratioThis is one of the industries mostly beaten down by pandemic. As we have now positive news about vaccination I think this industry due upside. Another bullish sign as per technical 20MA cross above 50MA and 50M above 200MA. Most of the airline stock ticker has a similar chart pattern. As per chat setup, this has a good risk-reward ratio. Play strategy
- Buy around 22.06 which is the nearest support. Stop-loss 20.56.
- Potential target 29.25 where the gap
- P:L = 32:6
JETS flagging on new channelTechnical Analysis
On november 24th, JETS broke out above its june highs, and consolidated (orange square), demonstrating a successful break out of the channel. Now it shows a flag, showing potential for more upside.
There is a strong resistance level at $27.7; at this point I would expect a pullback, to ultimately reach the top of the gap around $30.
I am using a stop under the 10sma to take partial profits.
Fundamental Analysis
The market is a forward looking mechanism, with the path of the recovery setting a potential comeback for Airlines for Spring; JETS is fundamentally undervalued right now.
AAL - Got Any More Of That Stimulus Yet?If you check back in with our previous charts, you'll see we have been accumulating AAL between $11.50-$14.00 for a while now. The airlines are still patiently waiting for additional aid from Congress which will be a huge move up for the whole sector. While there has been support on both sides for further stimulus, there's still certain disagreements that have led to an elongated standstill forcing airlines to cut costs where it can (furloughing employees, cutting flight paths, leaving cities, etc.). Will still say this, more people are definitely flying now than the previous months. This past weekend alone, TSA said it screened more than 3 million travelers at US airports (1,047,934 on just Sunday), which made it the busiest travel day since the pandemic started. While this is good news, these are numbers are still 57% below 2019 levels, but it's a start.
TA:
At the moment $AAL is hitting resistance at 3 major levels for us: Our down trendline in purple since October 2018, The daily 200EMA, and .618 Fib level. A break in these levels would bullish and we would look for the new support resistance after this.
Updated Targets:
1. $17.20
2. $19.36
3. $22.00
Watching closely, and will come back with more updates.
Give us a follow and shoot us a Like for more analysis updates. Cheers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise
Is Air Canada ready for lift off?Looking at the #AirCanada stock there seems to be a couple things at play. #AirCanada is stuck in a downwards channel that has yet to be broken, it has flirted with the .38 fib a couple times but never clearly broke through and stayed above. The first bearish idea came from the idea of a downwards variant of a rectangle or flag/pennant, but looking closer #AirCanada may have printed a bull flag and it has just broken up. My only issue is the possibility of a bearish divergence on the hourly and there is not much room to grow on the stochastic or RSI but other than that #AirCanada break's though our .38 or #AirCanada shoot's back down to the bottom of the rectangle.
Until #AirCanada makes a clear break up or down my prediction is this stock will be stuck in its channel until further news of pandemic lift or revenue increase.
GL
AAL Still Choppy NASDAQ:AAL has been moving between 11.30 and 14.13 since earlier this Summer. Election time is truly the moment of truth. With a second stimulus bill in the works the main question that remains is when? Higher lows on the CMF shows that initiative for buyers is clearly there, comparatively to other dips it has formed a similar pattern. The earning beat is positive for AAL however furloughs have been hard on the workers and the company is clearly struggling. There is reason to believe that airlines will recover nicely with stimilus as we have seen recovery across the board with House elections more clear. Once stimulus hits there will likely be another big buyback likely followed by a dump. The area I would look to hold AAL until is around 19.38, I have enough reason to believe that area will be liquid for the stock and create a pullback. A strong push above this line (likely a result of an innovation of product or vaccine development) could lead to the line serving as a moderate support until we have more information. AAL is a strong buy above 12.05. These lines were drawn on historical price action, however it is important to note since the initial COVID-19 low and swing high the Fib levels have matched up nicely with these levels
Collecting Premium on UALPre-market the UAL 20NOV20 $40 call shows an Open interest of 2608. The Probability of the option being in the money is only 27.5% and there is also a 72.25% implied volatility included in the price. With a 72.5% chance that this option will expire worthless we can create a simple spread to be able to collect the premium of the option that is around 30 days to expiration.