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SPY Retesting Original Channel, ShortI have noticed many folks on here adjusting the channel that SPY is in a bit too frequently. If we draw the original channel that we moved upwards in, it becomes more clear that SPY has fallen out of the channel and is now retesting that structure. I have updated my original idea, to now show only 1 option moving forward, as I believe this one is the most likely. (See prior post for that idea). I think the next gap to be filled will be the one below at 280. A rapid 15 percent correction could be the nudge that the Trump administration wants to give congress to push through more stimulus this month. Assuming this plays out, I will go long once that gap is filled as it is likely we see new highs and go parabolic into election season, that just seems to make most sense from a psychological standpoint, since this market clearly has no bearing on fundamentals at the moment. Also, sorry, meant to say "now retesting" on the chart.
AMEX:SPYShort
by aaronsmth5
2
I'd say it matters but honestly does anything matter anymore?... anyways, point is we have entered the channel occupied pre-covid. We have already hit it's ceiling (see hand pointing) Now we test the bulls. If support holds mid-channel. we will probably begin an attempt to enter the sur-channel region, just above the 230's. I believe we won't initially hold 310 however, given the psych-influenced support built around whole numbers especially round-hundreds. this will also toss creedence to the 50 period ema which is sitting comfy just above the channel floor.
AMEX:SPY
by BingoMoney
6
SPY Many NotesHey all! Just wanted to give some insight to the SPY for a chance. We definitely are following an Elliot Wave pattern pretty closely and even with tensions US China wise, we are still in Bull Territory. Will it correct soon? We'll have to see if there is a resurgence vs. if there is a vaccine before that occurs. Tuesday will show an area of short Call territory before we really find out which direction SPY will go as it wedges into Holiday territory and Summer positivity. There's also some good info on 2018 comparatively when looking at both crashes and their recovery time. On this chart you'll see that 70 days is my estimate on recovery based on average crash data. Robinhood and a lot of consumer level trading apps have been helping Bulls really push the market up along with the Fed. Why wouldn't you put your stimulus check in the most volatile time of our lifetime? Give a follow so we can grow together? Any comments? Feel free to chat :)
AMEX:SPYLong
by PiersonFinancial
6
DISTRIBUTIONAL EVENTS: The Bear-Market In STOCKS Will Run Fatal!Hello, Traders Investors And Community And welcome to this extremely important foundational analysis about the stock-market-crash situation, where it is going and why the end of the bear-market could not be there already as some people believe. Last days and weeks we saw a recovery but this recovery is actually playing fully into the Wyckoff distributional events which I discovered and which we have in play for months now. Besides the corona-virus pandemic, we have a battered economy that is constituting on the distinctly shaky underground, the fact that a second lock-down wave from countries and can come and its resulting economic damage can easily move into the stock-market and lie ground for the next distributional events which will send the price to the basement in this still ongoing bear-market-environment. Even if the small small small percentage probability fulfills and the bear-market is completed now, the big crisis will just move some months/years into the future which will make it just increasingly more heavier damageful and devastational therefore we need to be prepared for these pending events which will more likely contribute in this current distributional cycle than after another bull-trap to the upside. This fact should bring us to the conclusion that we need to take the right action in such a market-environment which smart traders and investors should always prefer alongside the illogical speculative approach and therefore take the opportunity when they arise. As already mentioned in past analysis there are some sectors in the stock market that will profit from the crash like food, pharmacy or armory which are anticyclical to the market, when considering the long-side these truffles need to be picked out in this market environment. In my chart, we are looking at the weekly time-frame and as you can see there the whole distributional events in the current Wyckoff cycle are on the verge from phase B to phase C currently which providing valuable information because of the events we can expect to happen in phase C. At the moment the whole bull-rally which we see is suspected to be a huge bull-flag trapping many unadvanced people before taking the huge legs down which will come in phase C to phase D. Phase A: This phase was actually the weakening of the whole bull-market we had since 2009, there the increasing expectation for a possible markdown phase entered the picture and the first serious supply entering the market in this phase. We saw the first heavy bearish volume spikes entering and the market provided the overall buying climax in the structure and after it the long sideways trending market with several attempts to test the demand-value and form the next heavy wave to the upside which did not provide and resulted in an automatic rally to the downside before we entered phase B. Phase B: In the structure we had a long phase B with decreasing momentum of the bulls before the overall markdown and corona-fears hit the market, in the phase from December 18 to February this year we saw some beginning signs that a new awaited bearish market will develop when the market gets damaged. The Sign Of Weakness in Phase B provided a lower low before the final attempt for a continuation of the bull-market failed in the Up Thrust which trapped many long investors and traders in their positions selling shares to large institutional, this was the logical event after the weakening signs in phase A before the heavy volatile move to the downside came. Phase C: Now this is the phase which we will enter soon, it is important in the structure because it is literally a bull-trap trapping breakout traders in their positions and selling them to a large institutions. This is exactly what we hear in the news now, many people taking advantage of the counterreaction and calling it an end of the bear-market but this is a fatal mistake, the overall phase C will match perfectly with its upcoming Last Point Of Supply which comes when the demand we have at the moment weakens in the structure set up for a leg to the downside. After the first demand-weakness established it lays ground to phase D in the structure. Phase D: This phase will provide confusion in the markets with Signs Of Weakness and Last Points Of Supply, it will be a time where we see a consolidation movement in the stock-market confusing many people as if the bull-market is now really going on or not. After the last gaps of demand have risen in phase C we will increasingly see bullish weakness and bearish pressure, in this phase most of the institutional will be out of the market lying the ground for retail to sell below the last support level in the structure. Phase E: This phase unfolds the heavy and significant selling pressure to the downside, the price will leave the trading range and trapping many people in its position to the downside. We will see a high volume and selling here which will spread out in the media and activates the meaningful retail selling, in this phase the opportunity for trade on the short-site will be huge as many companies struggling in the global economy and there will be insolvent companies on the mass scale which is actually a good environment for smart short-selling traders to profit from it. The importance of this phase is also that it marks the last point in the distributional events and new accumulational events can occur, you can see this level marked in orange at my chart. So this is the actual situation we are currently facing, in the months to come we will see how it will play out but one thing is sure, the real economy still struggling with the corona-restriction and have a hard time to come back to status quo this means the pressure can gain when the ground becomes more shaky. The whole rally we would see when the market "stopped" the bull-markets and continues bearish will be extremely speculative and all serious smart investors will stay out of the market and prefer the safety of cash, only the fact that investors like warren buffet are bullish and selling investments makes the bearish scenario and therefore its following Wyckoff distributional events more legit, in this case, we need to be prepared and take the proper action with trades on the short-side when the opportunities arise. In this manner this should give a good view, thanks for watching, support for more insights, and good week everybody! Comfort and prosperity have never enriched the world as much as adversity has. Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be used to take action in the markets.
SP:SPX
by VincePrince
43
S&5-500After the first impulse from the local bottom, we'd corrected to the 38.2% Fibonacci then we bounced up. Now we are moving into the local downward channel that's a correction channel. We have already reached the level of 38.2% and started to grow. There is a possibility that we can still fall to 50% near the lower support line and after that, we’ll break the resistance of this channel and go to the next resistance lines. In general, I expect US market recovery for the next 2 quarters, so I don’t think that in the near future we will go straight to update the bottom. Key support and resistance levels you can see on the attached chart. Best regards EXCAVO
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EXCAVO
33
I Call BS On This Stock Crash! (ETH - S&P 500)As noted in this analysis - I think this was a big shakeout before the real bull! & bear market. Similar to Ethereum and Bitcoin in their bullish cycles (they both had shakeouts) This one is surprisingly similar to Ethereums cycles They even have the same fib relations Looking forward to this! I think it will drop another 10% or so on the short term but I expect it to recover. This was a very large bear trap & tricked most everyone. including me for a minute. The big bear is coming later Stay profitable - Dalin Anderson
Long
by High_Altitude_Investing
17
Big picture EW count on the spider This will create a great longterm buying opportunity! - bearish divergence - Completed EW supercycle - Haven't had an 80% drop since the great depression - Everyone is in pure euphoria (big picture) when it comes to the stock market. This goes along with my other stock calls. I jumped the gun on some of them and was a bit too early calling the tops. But they were all close enough for me because I'm just aiming to buy the dips after a large correction rather than short or anything like that. still bearish on all of these charts
SP:SPXShort
by High_Altitude_Investing
Where Will The S&P 500 Sell-off Stop?he S&P 500 index is in a crazy sell-off since this Monday. The growth from the last three months was blown away just in three days and there is still no sign of stopping. What caused the sell-off? One thing is fundamentals like the Coronavirus slowing down the global economy (-0.1 to -0.2% was the IMF optimistic estimate). The other thing is that when there is a strong uptrend there are always pullbacks and also “Long squeezes”. A Long squeeze is what I think we currently see on the S&P 500. Big trading institutions don’t want to be buying and adding to their long positions for too high prices. Big guys don’t want to buy expensive. What is best for them is simply manipulate the market into a sell-off like we see now and then buy for cheaper/lower prices later. What do the other market participants do when they see a sell-off? They start to panic and sell their longs. This helps to drive the sell-off even more! What do the big guys do next when the “weak buyers” are out? The big guys start buying again! But this time for much lower prices! It is as simple as that. When do you think is the best time to start such a Long squeeze? When there is panic (Coronavirus,…). This makes the sell-off more scary and people are more prone to believe that they should really quit their long positions (they quit by selling them to institutional buyers). There were so many cases like this in the past and I am quite sure this is not different. How do we profit on this? Somebody might say that the best way how to profit on this sell-off is to enter shorts and make some money on the panic. I am not a fan of this because I think this is a Long squeeze (only a trap for buyers) and that the price will revert and go to new highs again. I think it would be best to act like an institution and ask ourselves – where are the institutions most likely to enter their longs again? In my opinion, they will do it in a place where they think enough liquidity is. Big guys always need huge liquidity. And since big liquidity is where heavy volumes are (or were), we can use our favorite tool Volume Profile to identify such places. In this case I used Daily chart and printed the Volume Profile over the uptrend area which started in 2019 and continued until the previous week. As you can see from the screenshot above there was a heavy volume area around the 2930.00. The heaviest volumes in the previous and this year got traded there. I think this will be the zone the aggressive sellers will try to reach. Then I expect an end of the panic and a new start of buying activity. Resistance becoming Support There is also one more thing (apart from the heavy volumes) which confirms this trading idea. The thing is that this zone around 2930.00 worked as a strong Resistance in the past. The price strongly bounced off this area twice. When the price went through this Resistance, then the Resistance became a Support. I hope you guys liked this article! Let me know what you think in the comments below! Happy trading! -Dale
FX:SPX500
by Trader_Dale
1
Trading Volume Clusters on ES (S&P 500 Futures)Quite a lot of people like trading indices using the Volume Profile tool. In my experience, the Volume Profile works fantastic with indices. In fact, I am also planning to add ES (SP 500 futures) to the levels which I publish daily for members of my Trading course. So, today, I would like to have a closer look at the ES and show you my intraday trade analysis using Volume Profile there. Let’s look for some Volume Clusters! There was a strong buying activity on Monday and buyers were pushing the price upwards. When I see an intraday uptrend like this, then I start to look for significant Volume Clusters formed within the uptrend. Such Volume Clusters point to places, where the buyers who are pushing the price upwards were adding to their buying positions. Volume cluster As you can see, the volumes in this Volume Cluster are really nicely visible and the level is very clear and easy to see. Most of the buyers from this uptrend were adding to their positions at this place. What I expect now is that when the price makes it back to this level again sometime in the future, those buyers will become active again and they will start pushing the price upwards again. This does not need to happen today or tomorrow, not even this week! Markets have good memory, so even if this level gets hit in 2-3 weeks I will still believe in a buying reaction from there. I hope you guys liked the analysis. Feel free to leave a comment below. Happy trading! -Dale
FX:SPX500
by Trader_Dale
1
Stocks looking very overvalued fundamentaly and Technically.I do not want to get too into depth on the SPX as this is mainly for my personal future reference however I will say that I believe the SPX will reach a high at 3400ish and go no higher than 3800$. I also believe there will be a downturn of around 40% from the highs in the next year meaning I think the bottom will be in at around 2100$ The bottom will take appox 1year. There are also plenty of fundamental reasons for the SPX to fall and that is what this post is mainly capitalizing on I am just using FIB ratios as targets for risistance and support. It would be foolish to be longing this stuff right now. Buy back in the end of 2021 and you should be fine. *Disclaimer, This is not financial advice. Dont trust some random guy on the internet but please do yourself a favor and do some research if you have a large portion of money in stocks right now
TVC:SPXShort
by StevenRodas
2