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2023

Future predictions (2023) Fundamental: The inflation havent reached consumers yet, we have had money (savings) from Covid. We will see more "cold" winter now, as the inflation finally starts to decrease the purchasing power. The inflation decreases but not quick enough and debt will be taken. There is a possibility to a bigger recession if the debt is too much for banking systems (Unemployment rate, rate of interest, inflation, credit quality) Technical: Top to bottom percentages (S&P 500, approx every decade) 28% 60s/50% 70s/36% 80s/20% 90s/50% 20s/57% 21s (average 40%. 27% now, we have reasons to go lower) These dates and prices are based on past, not super accurate, but with these there were least inconsistencies Based on human psychology and cycles we tend to have (bigger picture, decade and century cycle), we havent seen that much yet. We need bigger crisis or there will be next one coming, the cycle is in progress, there is "nothing" to recover from right now. Sorry about narrow analysis, I am not the type to write own analysis, also there is no words or pictures to describe the full database I have on my mind! Hopefully you still enjoy and comment your thoughts, Best regards: Malmberg Jami
SP:SPX
by SuomiJamppa
GDP is Bad and You Should Feel BadThe GDP number of 2.7% growth is being propped up by net exports, while consumption is at a cycle low. This is horrible for earnings expectations and risk assets. Net exports were at a low in prior quarters, making the economy look worse off than it was. Now the economy is actually worse off than it is and the metric is instead making it look better. This is why the NBER doesn't use "two quarters of negative GDP" to date recessions. There are too many false signals. Don't fall for the GDP meme. The pain is coming.
FRED:GDPC1Short
by coinhoIio
Stop Trading the Fed Funds RateThe fed usually hikes into growth and eases when it realizes the economy is too weak to absorb the impact of the hikes, so historically stocks usually rise as the hiking begins and crashes when the fed takes their foot off the pedal. This time the fed is late. They hike as the housing market is brought to its knees and the economy is slowing. Equities are down, but this is not due to recession expectations. The bond market has reacted to rate hikes, bond yields rise, the discount rate affects the equity market by eating away at their earnings targets. The higher the yield is, the more your company has to make than that in growth to give incentive to invest in it over just holding fixed income. Rate hikes have many systemic effects like this that increase the cost of credit and directly impact the equity market. If you're holding risk assets you're better off with the Fed holding the line with the hikes in the short term. In the longer term we are screwed no matter what levers the fed pulls. Monetary magic can not save the economy now. Easing or slowing the hikes (which isn't my prediction, but a market's hope) would be a signal to another group of market participants that we haven't seen sell anything yet who are trading based off of what easing signals. So far equities have only reacted to changes in the discount rate. They have not started pricing in a recession and current price action is a bet on temporary economic contraction with no hard landing. Three different recession, three different initial conditions, same market behavior: The probability of a soft landing is zero percent. The mystery of this market isn't the direction it's how low it's actually going to go. The more funny retail money enters this market, the higher the chance we could see unprecedented drawdowns far worse than anyone so far has expected. Everyone in retail, their aunt, uncle, grandma, and dog, is trading speculatively based off the fed funds rate. They believe that a change in the pace of hikes or basis point increases will breathe life into the economy. They have not traded a market like this before. If you think the economy can recover without a crash, park into cash and sit this one out. Stop listening to these talking heads in mainstream media telling you everything will be ok. You are the customer and the product holding up their portfolio as they exit leaving you holding the bag.
AMEX:SPYShort
by coinhoIio
2
Inflation Canada well I am continuing these charts till we hit my stop loss and go down--- if you look at my indicators you will see inflation is at 2% in canada right now and will continue being 2 percent for a while---I dont think it will do a uturn for a while I think we are stabilized at this point for a while. thanks for reading - if your policitians get this to the right people please inflation isnt real-- it takes a 5 or 10 million trade to make 160 trillion on here lol----
ECONOMICS:CAEDShort
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd
ETH bottom set in?Hello all, Just speculation for fun from a fellow beginner and ETH holder. We seem to be forming a pattern similar to 2018s Cycle bottom. 2018s cycle went down 94% from ATH to bottom. This cycle we've gone down around 70% from ATH. if cycles were to somewhat repeat we could be in for another 60% to 80% correction at the current price in the worst case scenario OR a 180% increase throughout late January / Early February of 2023 which would mean ETH at around 4k with room for growth if macro economics don't deteriorate too much. What do you think?
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by CondeTrading
ETHEREUM SHORT / ETH SHORTI am in love with the Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, De-Fi and Web 3.0 and I will continue to search about this revolution. The Ethereum is one of the best in blockchain and I really like the purpose and vision of the founder and community. I love this kind of projects: Ethereum, Cardano... Although I do not see the security of the code as very effective, I like this proyect on the long-term. I think it's unfortunate that the world looks rigid to prices, to some numbers. Many of us here are investors and we are looking for returns. When things get ugly, even if we don't want it to, they get ugly and no one can change it. I have given details about this crash on other ideas, specially a cryptocurrency edition: "THE BITCOIN CRASH" (where I explain the crash of cryptocurrencies and bitcoin), I recommend you to take a lot at it for a further investigation. On Ethereum , we can see the highest peak: 4872.56 on 10 Nov, 2021 . And on the 18 Jun, 2022 the price was 993.94 : representing a fall of -78.65% If we take a look at the S&P 500 , we can see the highest peak: 4818.04 on 04 Jan, 2022 . And on the 22 Jun, 2022 the price was 3666.32 : representing a fall of 23.71% Where is the problem here? well if we take a look of all the crisis we have had, the drop was always between -45% and -60%. As far as we can "estimate", another fall is coming. Apart from the percentage of fall, the crisis in which we are still not over... then the market unfortunately need another drop... If we look at the S&P 500 it needs another fall of -23.71% since 993.94 (but we can see a more abrupt and longer fall). If we look at Ethereum it needs another fall of -78.65% since 3666.32 (but we can see a more abrupt and longer fall). Leaving us the price of Ether (ETH) at 221 I know that Ethereum will soon release its Ethereum 2.0 update and if all goes well the programs and applications on Ethereum will be more agile, and it can serve as a small support to the price of Ether. But inflation is inflation, falls are falls, crisis are crisis... Unfortunately this will be a long recovery since all the bubbles in the world have come together and created a huge one (check my linked ideas to know more). I wish long life and development of cryptocurrencies. Remember that not everything is the price, human development and progress is worth more than that. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU AND YOU ONLY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECISIONS YOU MAKE. Any idea or point of view that you want to contribute in the comments, you are welcome, thanks for reading a like would be appreciated <3 Thanks you very much, Have a nice day!
Short
by TheWaterBottle
BTCUSD:Long Term View 2022/2023Hi TV's Fellas! This is my current view for #BTCUSD on the long term: Despite Btc has formed a potential bottom/support around 19/20K area, the real market bottom has not been reached yet. As you can see there are still two weekly gaps(green lines) which needs to be filled before the Big Bull Run will starts again.Also, according with #BTC.D there is still a massive gap around 40 which must be filled before the crypto King will be able to take back his dominance in the crypto market. Lastly, Total Market Cap has a gap to be filled around 680/700B and that's main reason why I can see BTC but especially majors ALT Coins reaching certain low gaps before the Big Rise. In the next weeks I am expecting Btc to reach 29/30K before the next drop, as everyone knows massive liquidity is always needed into a market to complete important moves, despite the trend itself. Also,for some reasons, I do expect Bitcoin forming a double bottom around 7,5/7,8k(last gap, marked with a green line) before ATH's being retested...but for know only time will tell us! If you have any comment or idea to share please write them in the comments below, and thank you very much for reading! :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoAndy85
2
THE BITCOIN CRASHIt is clear that the cryptocurrency bubble has suffered a fall, but the worst is yet to come. Bitcoin does not have any kind of value, and this reminds me of the .com bubble of 99... where only those companies that really provided good value survived. Well, I think something will happen this way with the "Blockchain" technology. Many worthless projects will be destroyed and only those with a very good value will survive in the future. The currency "Bitcoin" is not a PONZI. What is a PONZI is the number of projects that are created in order to scam people, we have already seen many scams... Squidgame token... Omicron Coin... LUNA... USDT?? These scam projects or projects with pure FOMO and meaningless, as they happened in the 99's, will devastate the entire Blockchain and economic sector... Bitcoin has provided a great technology, the "Blockchain" that is why I appreciate it like many other people. Bitcoin is great and I'm a big fan of it, but sadly, the bubble is going to burst. Without a doubt THE WORST WORLD CRISIS as I mentioned in my other article of "2023 Global Crisis". It's literally not one bubble, it's several... You would see this bubble as a bubble within a bubble within a bubble within a bubble within a bubble within a BIG bubble. If any bubble bursts (which will burst), the rest will too, maybe a little longer or a little less, but they will. In the graph you can see that my levels to which Bitcoin can fall are between $6,000 and $25 Some people will call me crazy, but in reality my figure is not true since no one can predict the PRICE of the market. What people can predict is how other people predict a price with FOMO. You don't have to be a genius to see it, you just have to walk away from the party and see how others enjoy very loud music while the next morning everyone is on the floor. Please do your own research and do a lot of research on this. DO NOT PUT YOUR MONEY IN CRYPTO STABLE COINS, Thanks. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. YOU AND ONLY YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR INVESTMENTS AFTER READING THIS ARTICLE. Thank for reading this article (if anyone has read it), A pleasure to share my advice, Esiquiel ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheWaterBottle
3