Nasdaq 2000 vs Nasdaq 2022So many similarities...
1. Mass participation of retail
2. Enthusiasm about new technology! it was .com back then it is crypto now!
3. Failed IPOs/SPACs
4. Is it that obvious??? We just don't fight the FED? no technical analysis, no fundamental, no politics, NOTHING???
5. Can the bomb fall twice in the same place?
Let's all short Nasdaq and make money right??? not so sure...
2022
BTC Buy & Hold Monthly Returns in April, 2022In this idea we want to show our operation as a long term trader - another definition for the term "Investors" - in which we select - doing also fundamental analysis - assets with long term bullish Bias.
During the selection process it is important to evaluate the performance of the assets and - once in the portfolio - to monitor how the situation evolves.
How did BTC perform in April 2022? -18.72%
As Quant Traders and Investors, we have developed a tool to help us decide if the asset has a long-term bullish bias and - even more important - to evaluate not only the profits but also the drawdowns at least on a monthly level - as investors portfolio monitoring is not that frequent - that we can expect.
What do you think about the trend of BTC? Other assets to analyse?
XLM (stellar) price highs for 2022 and 2028I am using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork and an ascending channel to show the possible price targets for XLM on a weekly chart. You can see how XLM has been respecting these low points on both the ascending channel and the MSP (modified schiff pitchfork). This is extremely crucial to take notice of as xlm is respecting this bottom already three times (in 2017 $0.0018, 2020 $0.02, and 2022 $0.17) as shown by the yellow thumbs. XRP has a similar chart as XLM came out of Ripple's loins with Jed McCaleb at the helm. I am extremely bullish on this chart long-term. Can we break this channel? Most certainly we can break this to the downside as nothing is guaranteed but I highly doubt it, my opinion only.
Also, take notice of the top for xlm in 2017 hitting a high of $0.99 which represented a 51,000% increase. If we carry this over to the next possible cycle top for 2022 and 2028 we see a $99 price and into the thousands by 2028.
AXS - The Breakout view from side of technical anysalse- AXS shows movement volume which could bring AXS into a new breakout view as the chart shows
- 2 Targets for AXS - between 53/$55 and $69
Breakout chance 77%
Increase period 1-30 days
This update is depending on range trading and the last BTC running market price actions.
AXS at this moment is still interesting depending on the price action that it shows.
The question is:
when are we getting the breakout?
There is no guarantee into trading, but from trading view more chance.
Most of the time the price could change with BTC price action to breakout - but more chance of the real breakouts its coming from the whale trend interest and most time unexpected.
The above models are the expecting frames, which means there is no guarantee it will happen 100%
It's important to study all-time you trades well before entering any market.
It's always important to check the markets on all sides - markets can change all time.
The economics of the FIFA World CupIn a few months from now, billions of people will be glued to their TVs for the 2022 FIFA World Cup that is set to take place in Qatar. Every four years, soccer’s global governing body gathers teams from over 30 countries for the world’s biggest sporting event that brings in billions of dollars in revenues and other economic benefits (jobs and tourism) for host nations and for FIFA itself.
Economic benefits for host countries
For every World Cup, countries put in their bids to host the event as it is widely seen as beneficial for tourism in the long run. Preparing for the event boosts infrastructure and employment in the run up to the World Cup and attracts tourists during and after the event.
Countries spend heavily in building stadiums as FIFA has had strict stadium requirements since at least 2001. Stadiums for hosting the opening ceremony should have a capacity of at least 80,000 people, while venues slated for quarter-finals should be able to seat 60,000 attendees.
While hosting the World Cup has dubious positive long-term effects on host nations’ tourism and retailing, the impact on employment is undoubtedly transitory as the bulk of job creation is during the construction of stadiums and related infrastructure. Once construction is finished and the World Cup caps off, situations will normalize at host countries and economies will have to wait a couple of years to fully recover the size of their investments in hosting the event.
South Africa, which hosted the 2010 World Cup, spent about £3 billion ($4 billion) on venues and infrastructure costs, but only raked in £323 million in revenue due to lower-than-expected tourist arrivals. South Africa and Brazil, which spent about $15 billion on the 2002 World Cup, are among the host nations that were unable to benefit from their investments.
The South Africa World Cup is regarded by many as a disaster as it triggered protests by workers and by activists that were against the government’s overspending on the project.
Fast forward to 2022, the Qatar World Cup is being met with backlash over how the Gulf state treats its migrant workers. Qatar, albeit small, is one of the world’s richest countries based on its GDP per capita. The oil-exporting country has spent billions on hosting the World Cup that is set to be the first in the Arab world and the second to be entirely set in Asia after the 2002 event in South Korea and Japan.
However, Qatar is facing protests following reports that thousands of migrant workers have died since the country started constructing infrastructures for the event about a decade ago. The 2022 World Cup has also been marred with corruption scandals. Qatar and Russia have been accused by the US Department of Justice two years ago of bribing FIFA officials to award hosting rights to their countries for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.
Impact on the currency of the World Cup champions
For champions, economic benefits from winning the World Cup are also short-lived. In a report in 2014, Goldman Sachs said the victor outperforms the global market by 3.5% only in the first month after winning. The momentum fades after three months, the bank’s economists said, stressing that the pattern of outperformance is "fairly consistent over time.”
In assessing the World Cup winners between 2002 and 2018, only France registered a slowdown in GDP growth. After winning the 2002 World Cup, Brazil’s GDP jumped 3.1%, faster than the 1.4% expansion in 2001. Italy and Germany also recorded an acceleration in their GDP after their wins in 2006 and 2014, respectively, while Spain’s economy inched up 0.2% in 2010 after contracting 3.8% the previous year.
In terms of the victors’ currencies, the Euro — the currency of most European countries —fared better than the US dollar in 2010 when Spain won the World Cup, but lagged against the USD in 2006, 2014 and 2018 when Italy, Germany and France emerged as champions of the World Cup.
The favorite to win the 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup is Brazil and could lead to a strengthening in the Brazilian real, which has already had an impressive year. The USD started 2022 at approximately 5.6 reals per US dollar and has since strengthened by 20% to 4.7 reals per US dollar. France (the euro) and England (the pound) are considered the next two favorites with football fans.
Who is the real winner in World Cup events?
If both host nations and champions only receive little to no economic benefits from the World Cup, the clear winner of the international sporting event is undoubtedly the organizer, FIFA, itself. FIFA generates income from the sale of TV, marketing, and licensing rights for football events like the World Cup, while the costs for World Cup events always falls on the host countries.
FIFA is expected to rake in $7 billion in revenue from the 2022 World Cup, up from $5.36 billion from the 2018 World Cup and $4.8 billion from the 2014 event.
Recession warning on S&P500?The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 . On Thu Mar 31st , the yield curve showed a possible warning signal that a recession could be happen at anytime, but the curve needs to stay inverted for a substantial amount of time before it gives a valid signal. People get excited about the yield curve because, historically it has been a good predictor of the onset of recession.
Against a backdrop of searing inflation, Russia’s War in Ukraine and a commodity shock, the relentless flattening of the yield curve and its predictive qualities has market watchers on edge.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the odds of a U.S. recession as high as 35% in the next year, while Grant Thornton’s Diane Swonk sees the twin blow of Fed tightening and higher oil prices potentially tipping the economy into a recession. The yield curve may serve Economists more than Investors, the key factor in the yield curve inversion is that, while it can often forecast darker days ahead for the economy, it is NOT a sell signal for those who invest in stocks
XDC 2023 & 2028 possible priceusing a pitchfork along with an ascending channel. I am basing this ascending channel off of the first three points of contact at beginning of this channel along with a touch at the resistance top of ascending channel. We dipped below this ascending channel and in order for this channel to be respected, we will have to come back inside the channel. The Pitchfork is a good indicator of possible future price action. As you can see I have two price points at end of 2022 given we make contact at top of the channel $0.99 or top of Pitchfork $1.69. In 2028, which could be the next Bitcoin peak possibly over $1 million could bring the XDC price either at $346 if we respect the top of this ascending channel or a whopping $3,711 price at top of the Pitchfork.
Oil price prediction Elliott Wave Theory ShortI believe, because the prices of oil will go up in the long term, this is a corrective move, therefore labelling it ABC, it shows an almost 68.1% retracement. Showing that the price of oil in my opinion will go down within the next few weeks before making a strong upward 5 wave sequence.
Bitcoin 2022 peak/blowoff top based on Fib pointsto get to this possible Expanding Cycle Theory mentioned by Nicolas Merten on Datadash Youtube channel I am taking a different approach to see if this theory has any teeth to it and apparently it does if applying Fib points to it. I am using the Schiff Pitchfork and also the Fib Channel as points to give me the most number of touches on Fibs as possible. All the hand icons are pointing to touchpoints on the Fib channel which are numerous and also using the Schiff Pitchfork as a future peak for BTC. When we look at the November date for this peak we do see an intersection between the Fib channel and the Schiff Pitchfork pictured by Sun in yellow. This price is about $165,000 which is close to Nicolas"s $150k price projection. If we also look at the top of the Beam band we can see that there is a good possibility Bitcoin could hit over $300k if we visit the top of the Beam band as well.
Of course this is speculative as Bitcoin could achieve this peak into the 2023 year as well, we really don't know for sure but it is interesting to see what is possible with Fib points.
XRP based on Expanding Cycle theory 2022Guys, I had to redo this chart because of the fractal on the previous chart not coming out correctly. This is an ascending channel that XRP has been respecting as you can see from top in 2013 to consistent touches at bottom of this channel. By taking the fractal of 2013 we can get a possible idea of the price if we get to the high of this ascending channel.
WETH/TRDG NEXT PUSH (BULLRUN 2022)The chart shows where we want to push our next ATH and sustain volume. While UNISWAP:TRDGWETH developers work on the NFT Marketplace & Gaming integration it's only a matter of time until the token burns and price appreciation come to an overwhelming threshold.
You can't stop $TRDG from making ATH's again.
Watch for TRDGtoken breakout on ETH & BSC 2022!
Future upgrades and implementations are in the works.
Do not sleep when it comes to the powerful Tardigrades.
WE ARE THE STRONGEST LIVING CREATURES IN THE UNIVERSE!
UNISWAP:TRDGWETH
Weekly Heikin Ashi Logarithmic BTCUSD on BITSTAMP Pi Cycle TopThis is the weekly Heikin Ashi Candlestick Chart for BTCUSD on BITSTAMP 2012-2022.
The Russian-Ukraine conflict/war caused Bitcoin to drop below the all time low trend line.
Keeping in the parallel channel, price of bitcoin will be a million dollars in 4 years. = )
IWM - Looks like small caps might be in for a bit more hurtThe daily chart from the Covid crash to the peak of the Covid recovery paints a picture of the Russell 2000 that is eerily similar to a textbook sketch of Wyckoff's distribution theory.
For the bulk of 2021 IWM respected a very clear support line that has been crashed through in 2022. Recent price action shows that old support being tested as a new resistance and buyers attempting to push prices through that level were flatly rejected. Furthermore, volume began spiking on drops in price below the 200 day moving average and any movement above it recently was met with anemic volume. This is not the excitement that we've been accustomed to in the small caps of 2020.
The game has changed.
With 1/3 of the Russell (at least) being non-revenue producing speculative companies that were exponentially over-valued during the 2020 bull run, it's hard to imagine that the grounding of the Russell isn't real and that it isn't coming. In today's market, giants like TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT are being dragged down to fundamental value. The small caps aren't immune, unfortunately. What's even worse is that a correction to AAPL's charts isn't as ghastly as some small caps that are trading at tens or hundreds of millions above their quarterly earnings.
The Russell is an important index to watch if one is interested in small cap boomers. It serves as not only a tradable ETF but as a thermometer for the sentiment toward speculation. Right now, it appears that bullish sentiment and risk taking is waning and bearish sentiment is growing. This could lead to a gut wrenching performance for small caps going forward into 2022 and larger drops in former penny stocks that retail investors drove to epic heights in 2020 and early 2021. Many of these companies are still heavily overvalued after 50%+ drops in share prices.
I'd expect volatility in the coming months as tax returns are pumped into these old favorites with the rallying cries of "buy the dip" and "moon next PR" on the breath of most novice investors and traders, especially those who are holding bags likely exponentially higher than current share prices. Once that surge of small money ends I would think that an abysmal summer is approaching for many of these strongholds.
Most of the companies have made lofty promises and many of them have targeted this summer for validation of their business models and strategies. But in the face of generationally high inflation, wars, rate hikes, and supply chain disruptions along with a pandemic that is cyclically impacting humanity, will it matter?
If Mr. Russell is any indication of what is to come, that answer is likely no. Spiking prices will likely be met with hard sell-offs and shorts that start to feel the squeeze will get a layer of protection from the trapped bulls just looking to get their money back out of the markets.
It's not the best of news, but it shouldn't be considering that we aren't in the best of economic situations currently. Of course this is the markets and the markets have a mind of their own. It's wise not to get too caught up in bias and predictions to the point where you are unable to react appropriately and according to your plans.
Good luck out there and God bless!!