BitcoinLong
BTC(XBT)/USD as of 1/24/2018 - Mid-Term Retest of 13,000
Have a grain of salt ready, I do not claim to be an expert. This analysis is for learning purposes and should not be taken as investment advice.
I've been watching BTC much more closely than normal over the last week, looking for a good opportunity to sell. The resistance levels have been constantly hammered, especially at about $10,600. They held incredibly well apart from a few wicks puncturing them. While the price has been in a really pretty short-term downtrend since the 20th, and I have been expecting it to break through the $10,000 line and hold, it seems like the Bears just aren't able to do it right now (even with help from the Korean tax policy).
So starting big and getting small,
(in 4H candles)
The macro-trend (in dark purple) we are in right now has gone through about three of five waves (from the ~$20,000 mark) to now, which looks like the beginning of the second corrective wave in the downtrend.
Tea-leaves or not, the pattern that formed after the initial impulse down from $20,000 (in orange) is about done forming after this most recent swing from $17,000 (in red). The pattern is highlighted in purple triangles and white points on the chart.
Looking closer:
(in 1H candles)
While the price has broken out of its four day trend (in white), it is still being held back by the upper limit of the current impulse's channel. The upper limit of that channel and the relentlessly defended $10,000 resistance have created a descending triangle.
It is still possible for the price to break below $10,000, where resistance is few and far between. If so, you can expect the price to travel down to the lower limit of the macro-trend around $8,000.
However, with multiple failures to break $10,000 and a large double bottom (maybe a triple bottom if we retest 10k), it seems much more likely to break above the impulse channel and go on a run to the upper limit of the macro-trend around $13,000.
Those movements should cover the next few days.
After then, I think a final turn downwards towards the lower limit of the macro-trend would complete the huge correction BTC started in December. There's no point in me guessing what price it will hit then, but below 10k... probably 8k. BUT, that roughly will take up the rest of January and maybe a few days of February. If you believe in seasonal cycles, that lines the price up perfectly to finish its correction and resume healthy growth as we get past the first month of the year.
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Thanks for reading. I am in the process of learning how to read charts and markets better, so any and all pointers, comments, ect are really appreciated. Comment below!
I've been watching BTC much more closely than normal over the last week, looking for a good opportunity to sell. The resistance levels have been constantly hammered, especially at about $10,600. They held incredibly well apart from a few wicks puncturing them. While the price has been in a really pretty short-term downtrend since the 20th, and I have been expecting it to break through the $10,000 line and hold, it seems like the Bears just aren't able to do it right now (even with help from the Korean tax policy).
So starting big and getting small,
(in 4H candles)
The macro-trend (in dark purple) we are in right now has gone through about three of five waves (from the ~$20,000 mark) to now, which looks like the beginning of the second corrective wave in the downtrend.
Tea-leaves or not, the pattern that formed after the initial impulse down from $20,000 (in orange) is about done forming after this most recent swing from $17,000 (in red). The pattern is highlighted in purple triangles and white points on the chart.
Looking closer:
(in 1H candles)
While the price has broken out of its four day trend (in white), it is still being held back by the upper limit of the current impulse's channel. The upper limit of that channel and the relentlessly defended $10,000 resistance have created a descending triangle.
It is still possible for the price to break below $10,000, where resistance is few and far between. If so, you can expect the price to travel down to the lower limit of the macro-trend around $8,000.
However, with multiple failures to break $10,000 and a large double bottom (maybe a triple bottom if we retest 10k), it seems much more likely to break above the impulse channel and go on a run to the upper limit of the macro-trend around $13,000.
Those movements should cover the next few days.
After then, I think a final turn downwards towards the lower limit of the macro-trend would complete the huge correction BTC started in December. There's no point in me guessing what price it will hit then, but below 10k... probably 8k. BUT, that roughly will take up the rest of January and maybe a few days of February. If you believe in seasonal cycles, that lines the price up perfectly to finish its correction and resume healthy growth as we get past the first month of the year.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for reading. I am in the process of learning how to read charts and markets better, so any and all pointers, comments, ect are really appreciated. Comment below!
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