Analysis of gold price trend on Thursday
Updated
In the early Asian session on Thursday (August 15), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range, and the current price is around 2457. On Wednesday, the price of gold fell 1% to below the 2450 mark, hitting a low of 2437. Earlier data showed that US consumer prices rebounded as expected in July, which poured cold water on the Fed's expectations of a sharp interest rate cut next month. In addition, some bulls took the opportunity to take profits, which also suppressed gold prices.
The market has shifted from over-predicting a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to only a 25 basis point rate cut, weakening some of the upward momentum of gold. The US CPI rose moderately in July, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed to below 3%, the first time since the beginning of 2021, increasing expectations of a rate cut next month, although it may not be as aggressive as the market hopes.
This trading day will usher in the US retail sales monthly rate in July, commonly known as the "horror data", which investors need to pay close attention to. The market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, which is slightly biased towards suppressing gold prices. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the annual rate of the U.S. import price index in July, the New York Fed manufacturing index in August, and the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in July.
[Technical side]
The CPI data triggered long profit-taking, forming the first round of wash-out since this week. The daily and weekly bullish trend structure of gold has not changed greatly, and the short-term cycle tends to fluctuate and fall. Technically, the daily and weekly structure remains in a bullish trend, and the daily line still runs above the MA10 daily moving average and above the RSI indicator center axis. The short-term four-hour chart forms a high-rise fall, the Bollinger Bands close, and the price adjusts in the middle and lower tracks. Gold is expected to fluctuate on Thursday, and trade according to the high sell and low buy.
Trading strategy:
2433-2438 long, stop loss 2424, target 2450-2460;
2457-2462 short, stop loss 2471, target 2440-2430;
The market has shifted from over-predicting a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to only a 25 basis point rate cut, weakening some of the upward momentum of gold. The US CPI rose moderately in July, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed to below 3%, the first time since the beginning of 2021, increasing expectations of a rate cut next month, although it may not be as aggressive as the market hopes.
This trading day will usher in the US retail sales monthly rate in July, commonly known as the "horror data", which investors need to pay close attention to. The market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, which is slightly biased towards suppressing gold prices. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the annual rate of the U.S. import price index in July, the New York Fed manufacturing index in August, and the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in July.
[Technical side]
The CPI data triggered long profit-taking, forming the first round of wash-out since this week. The daily and weekly bullish trend structure of gold has not changed greatly, and the short-term cycle tends to fluctuate and fall. Technically, the daily and weekly structure remains in a bullish trend, and the daily line still runs above the MA10 daily moving average and above the RSI indicator center axis. The short-term four-hour chart forms a high-rise fall, the Bollinger Bands close, and the price adjusts in the middle and lower tracks. Gold is expected to fluctuate on Thursday, and trade according to the high sell and low buy.
Trading strategy:
2433-2438 long, stop loss 2424, target 2450-2460;
2457-2462 short, stop loss 2471, target 2440-2430;
Trade active
The market is running slowly. There are a lot of news and data released in the NY market today. Let's wait for news updates together.Trade active
The market is running slowly. There are a lot of news data released in the NY market today. Let's wait for news updates.Trade active
Trade active
Gold rebounded to around 2450, and we sold again. The short trend is completely open, welcome to check my work Trade active
The Asian market fluctuated less and entered a shock adjustment. We are profitable on the long side. Welcome to check my work Trade active
XAUUSD
SELL: 2506near
SL:2513.5
TP:2497~2490
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