Analysis of gold price trend on Monday
In the Asian market on Monday, the US dollar index fell significantly, while spot gold climbed strongly and broke through 2410 after Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential election and supported Harris to take over. Traders may be inclined to believe that if Trump wins the election, he will drive the dollar down.
In addition to gold's technical outlook, investors will also be watching fundamental economic data as key inflation data is released in the coming week. Gold currently has a strong correlation with interest rate expectations, and the rise in gold prices to a record high coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will start an easing cycle in September. Gold prices have been supported this year as market bets that the Federal Reserve will shift to loose monetary policy have increased. Lower interest rates are generally good for gold because it does not pay interest.
Gold prices rose as much as 0.5% as uncertainty in the US election increased, and gold benefited from safe-haven demand. The sharp drop in the US dollar when the market opened on Monday also provided support for gold. In terms of safe-haven, purely from this perspective, gold has stronger tailwinds than headwinds. Biden's withdrawal from the election, at least, means that the Republican Party has a stronger opponent.
Technical Analysis
Gold fell by $90 last week. It may adjust at the beginning of this week and then continue to fall. The upper pressure is 2425, but the overall bearish trend is that the lower side is expected to be 2380 during the week, and 2350 remains unchanged.
Trading strategy:
Short-term gold 2398-2400 long, stop loss 2389, target 2420-2430;
Short-term gold 2418-2420 short, stop loss 2429, target 2400-2390;
Note: The above strategy was updated on July 22
In addition to gold's technical outlook, investors will also be watching fundamental economic data as key inflation data is released in the coming week. Gold currently has a strong correlation with interest rate expectations, and the rise in gold prices to a record high coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will start an easing cycle in September. Gold prices have been supported this year as market bets that the Federal Reserve will shift to loose monetary policy have increased. Lower interest rates are generally good for gold because it does not pay interest.
Gold prices rose as much as 0.5% as uncertainty in the US election increased, and gold benefited from safe-haven demand. The sharp drop in the US dollar when the market opened on Monday also provided support for gold. In terms of safe-haven, purely from this perspective, gold has stronger tailwinds than headwinds. Biden's withdrawal from the election, at least, means that the Republican Party has a stronger opponent.
Technical Analysis
Gold fell by $90 last week. It may adjust at the beginning of this week and then continue to fall. The upper pressure is 2425, but the overall bearish trend is that the lower side is expected to be 2380 during the week, and 2350 remains unchanged.
Trading strategy:
Short-term gold 2398-2400 long, stop loss 2389, target 2420-2430;
Short-term gold 2418-2420 short, stop loss 2429, target 2400-2390;
Note: The above strategy was updated on July 22
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