XAU/USD Detailed outlook!
Updated
Hi Traders,
Today I will be reviewing the gold pair, given that I mainly a commodities trader it would be great to share my thoughts on the pairs recent movement..
Long story short I was extremely surprised at how quickly gold declined over the last 3 days, we have shorted every time the pair broke down the supply zones.
Now are at a critical point for gold, should it decisively break 1870, we are in for Gold capitulation and break down to at least 1860, where gold will find support again, but that will be another $10 movement in a space of 10 hours, which would suggest Gold will be hurting further for the next month as it will show a huge outflow of money.
What strikes me, is the fact that there are multiple incursions happening across the world, China and EU/Taiwan tensions, North Korea and Russia linking up, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Stagflation is all but formally confirmed, and Gold is getting hit like a brick and US yields are sky rocketing...
This tells me that the market is extremely sick, and I expect for Gold to reach that $2000 mark Q1 2024 now rather than Q4 2023, with Q4 2023 target to be around 1930 - 1940 max.]
From a technical perspective, we can see the double top formation at 1950's area, and then the red line shows that the double top pattern has completed, so both technicals and fundamentals shows that gold is due to a rebound... minor but definitely there unless US data comes out extremely hot today.
Today I will be reviewing the gold pair, given that I mainly a commodities trader it would be great to share my thoughts on the pairs recent movement..
Long story short I was extremely surprised at how quickly gold declined over the last 3 days, we have shorted every time the pair broke down the supply zones.
Now are at a critical point for gold, should it decisively break 1870, we are in for Gold capitulation and break down to at least 1860, where gold will find support again, but that will be another $10 movement in a space of 10 hours, which would suggest Gold will be hurting further for the next month as it will show a huge outflow of money.
What strikes me, is the fact that there are multiple incursions happening across the world, China and EU/Taiwan tensions, North Korea and Russia linking up, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Stagflation is all but formally confirmed, and Gold is getting hit like a brick and US yields are sky rocketing...
This tells me that the market is extremely sick, and I expect for Gold to reach that $2000 mark Q1 2024 now rather than Q4 2023, with Q4 2023 target to be around 1930 - 1940 max.]
From a technical perspective, we can see the double top formation at 1950's area, and then the red line shows that the double top pattern has completed, so both technicals and fundamentals shows that gold is due to a rebound... minor but definitely there unless US data comes out extremely hot today.
Trade active
Open a small position long 1% risk, once it hits 1870 then risk another 2%.SL looking at 1867, very tight stop loss
Note
Strong selling everytime gold pops which means bears are not quite done yet, I'd be keen to see what happens when price breaks 1870, if there are multiple rejections of that price and it bounces, it's time to jump heavy into gold.Trade closed manually
Closed the trade.Gold at the moment is a bottomless pit, no rebound in sight just yet, waiting patiently for confirmation
Trade active
Entered again, seems that gold deserves a rebound now!Trade active
Partial TP taken on 3 Lot size, SL below daily lows, lets see what's going to happen hereTrade active
Another partial TP taken, beautiful rebound, I expect further rebound in the US session followed by potential sell at 1880 zoneTrade active
Another partial TP taken!Trade closed manually
Trade was closed when my SL hit, made amazing profit!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.