GOLD / BITCOINLong
Bitcoin $666k by Dec? (I know it sounds crazy) Happy New Year!
Let me start off by saying I hold a very small position in Ethereum, and do not think that Bitcoin will be the currency of the future. However, I came across this built-in ratio and couldn't resist playing around with Fibonacci time-zones to see if anything interesting popped up. The (potential) results I came across shocked me, so I thought I'd share them here and get thoughts from the community.
This is a Logarithmic chart of the ratio between Gold and Bitcoin. As we can see, there is a very clearly defined trend at play here. This trend saw a false breakout to the upside, which we can call the Covid anomaly. Other than that, it seems pretty clear that Bitcoin is being driven up as gold is being systematically crushed. To add to that, applying a Fib time-zone to the initial drop from Nov 2011-2013 as Gold came off its highs almost lines up perfectly with future pivots (O_o). This is where things get really interesting.
While my macro outlook calls for a major commodities bull market, I see gold initially rallying to $2500 this year, and silver to $42.70 before an engineered pullback to shake out retail investors before the true multi-year bull market. During this time, we are likely to see a flight into BTC/other cryptocurrencies, if it's not also being systematically crushed at the same time. Crypto bulls say it can't be crushed, so let's assume they are correct for the sake of this analysis.
The results show the following:
-XAUBTC Ratio Bottom = ~0.00377
-Ratio Bottom Date: ~Dec 12, 2021
-BTC Price if Gold @ $2500 = $663 130
-BTC Price if Gold @ $1700 = $450 928
I understand that there is a big range for the target, but it's rooted in analysis and dependent on the spot price of Gold. Curious to see what other people's targets are, and what methods you used to calculate them. Thank you for reading and happy trades!
TL; DR: This post is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. It is simply an interesting projection for calculating a bullish target for BTC using Gold price.
This is a Logarithmic chart of the ratio between Gold and Bitcoin. As we can see, there is a very clearly defined trend at play here. This trend saw a false breakout to the upside, which we can call the Covid anomaly. Other than that, it seems pretty clear that Bitcoin is being driven up as gold is being systematically crushed. To add to that, applying a Fib time-zone to the initial drop from Nov 2011-2013 as Gold came off its highs almost lines up perfectly with future pivots (O_o). This is where things get really interesting.
While my macro outlook calls for a major commodities bull market, I see gold initially rallying to $2500 this year, and silver to $42.70 before an engineered pullback to shake out retail investors before the true multi-year bull market. During this time, we are likely to see a flight into BTC/other cryptocurrencies, if it's not also being systematically crushed at the same time. Crypto bulls say it can't be crushed, so let's assume they are correct for the sake of this analysis.
The results show the following:
-XAUBTC Ratio Bottom = ~0.00377
-Ratio Bottom Date: ~Dec 12, 2021
-BTC Price if Gold @ $2500 = $663 130
-BTC Price if Gold @ $1700 = $450 928
I understand that there is a big range for the target, but it's rooted in analysis and dependent on the spot price of Gold. Curious to see what other people's targets are, and what methods you used to calculate them. Thank you for reading and happy trades!
TL; DR: This post is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. It is simply an interesting projection for calculating a bullish target for BTC using Gold price.
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