Might be bouncing out of a 40 day Trough right about now.
Updated
Hello Traders,
For USD/CAD I track two nominal models based on troughs, one being the standard Hurst nominal model and another a shorter Nominal model which also works well with this pair.
Note: these targets change daily ( as I trade EOD) based on the position of FLD, I will try to update them as we go along. Also these targets are based on my brokers data (alpari internationals) and not oanda so prices will differ slightly
As per the Standard Hurst Model :
40 day Cycle
a) 40 day trough is imminent as today is the 44th day in the cycle. As we are in the second half of the larger nominal 18 month cycle, cycles expanding is length is what we expect.
b) Todays 10 D FLD median price is 1.39760(cross point) and we take the pivot point 1.38550(low of 13th april) gives a target of 1.4097. If this is achieved we will have reason to believe the 40 day trough is in on the 13th
80 Day Cycle
c) Considering the 80 day cycle, tomorrows 20 day FLD price is 1.41720(crosspoint) and by taking the same pivot point as above, 1.38550, we get a target of 1.4489
Shorter Nominal Model : (12 month/26weeks/13weeks/48days/24days/12days/6days/3days)
48 day Cycle
d) the 48 day cycle seems to be running long as today would be the 54th day in the cycle( which is not out of ordinary as mentioned above). This 48 day trough as per my model should be synchronous with the trough of next longer cycle trough which is 13 week.
e)the trough of 27th march doesn’t seem to be of 13 week magnitude because of it's week bounce. If this is the case then the expected trough should be forming right about now.
f) Targets for this bounce out of the 48 day cycle will be arrived at by 12 day FLD, which has its median price for tomorrow at 1.39760 the pivot point will be the low of 13t april, 1.38550 thus providing us with the target of 1.4097 ( same as in point (b) )
13 Week cycle
g) Considering the bounce from a 13 week perspective, 24 day FLD median rpice form tomorrow is 1.41676, Pivot point 1.38550 gives us the Target as 1.44809 (almost as same as point (c) )
As the overall trend is strongly down and the larger magnitude trough approaching long positions should be entered with caution, position size should be low and profit should be protected with tight SL. I will play this scenario after some confirmationss
PS : if the above scenario does not play out, then it would present quite a bearish cycle picture and we should quickly reverse position.
For USD/CAD I track two nominal models based on troughs, one being the standard Hurst nominal model and another a shorter Nominal model which also works well with this pair.
Note: these targets change daily ( as I trade EOD) based on the position of FLD, I will try to update them as we go along. Also these targets are based on my brokers data (alpari internationals) and not oanda so prices will differ slightly
As per the Standard Hurst Model :
40 day Cycle
a) 40 day trough is imminent as today is the 44th day in the cycle. As we are in the second half of the larger nominal 18 month cycle, cycles expanding is length is what we expect.
b) Todays 10 D FLD median price is 1.39760(cross point) and we take the pivot point 1.38550(low of 13th april) gives a target of 1.4097. If this is achieved we will have reason to believe the 40 day trough is in on the 13th
80 Day Cycle
c) Considering the 80 day cycle, tomorrows 20 day FLD price is 1.41720(crosspoint) and by taking the same pivot point as above, 1.38550, we get a target of 1.4489
Shorter Nominal Model : (12 month/26weeks/13weeks/48days/24days/12days/6days/3days)
48 day Cycle
d) the 48 day cycle seems to be running long as today would be the 54th day in the cycle( which is not out of ordinary as mentioned above). This 48 day trough as per my model should be synchronous with the trough of next longer cycle trough which is 13 week.
e)the trough of 27th march doesn’t seem to be of 13 week magnitude because of it's week bounce. If this is the case then the expected trough should be forming right about now.
f) Targets for this bounce out of the 48 day cycle will be arrived at by 12 day FLD, which has its median price for tomorrow at 1.39760 the pivot point will be the low of 13t april, 1.38550 thus providing us with the target of 1.4097 ( same as in point (b) )
13 Week cycle
g) Considering the bounce from a 13 week perspective, 24 day FLD median rpice form tomorrow is 1.41676, Pivot point 1.38550 gives us the Target as 1.44809 (almost as same as point (c) )
As the overall trend is strongly down and the larger magnitude trough approaching long positions should be entered with caution, position size should be low and profit should be protected with tight SL. I will play this scenario after some confirmationss
PS : if the above scenario does not play out, then it would present quite a bearish cycle picture and we should quickly reverse position.
Trade closed: target reached
Trading the Shorter nominal Model, Target one was hit (1.40970). Scaled out 50% and 50% still on with the tight SL. As mentioned above the underlying trend is leaning down and the bounce out of the trough seems a bit lazy, protect profits and stand by to reverse position if the fall back into the wedge.
Ps. Todays EOD bar might clear the picture a little more. will update!
Trade closed: stop reached
Stop loss was it hit at break even on the 50% remaining postion.Note
The long scenario still in play based on the shorter Nominal Model.The price is above the 12 Day FLD and below the 24 Day FLD
We should come down to tap the 12 Day FLD from above and then bounce and cross the 24 day FLD.
Tomorrows 24 Day FLD (median) level is 1.40441, Pivot point (same as before) 1.38550 gives the target 1.42332
I have my long orders positioned at the high of todays bar.
Trade active
Long Trade triggered for Target 2, Both the Normal and SHort Nominal Models giving the same Target,
a)The closing line chart has crossed the 24 Day FLD on 19th at median price of 1.40441 PP 1.38550 therefore Target is 1.42332
b) The closing line chart has crossed the 20 Day FLD on the 18th at Median Price of 1.40441 PP 1.38550 so The target same as point (a) above of 1.42332
Entry Triggered late last night @ 1.41420
Note
Half of the T2 target Covered, 1/3rd position closed SL moved to 1.40083Trade closed: target reached
Target 2 reached, another 1/3rd position of the position cover, now in a 1/3 Left for the Lottery Trade, SL moved to break even. Will apply a trailing Cover for the Lottery Position.PS. WIll publish a new Idea for the Short trade for next trough coming ahead!
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