Potential for resumption of downtrend in S&P500
Updated
This is the bearish case for S&P500. There is a bullish case which I'll publish later.
The rally since the bottom on 22nd March can be counted up to this point as a double zigzag WXY as shown in this chart.
The second zigzag of this double zigzag has followed the purple pitchfork nicely and has been tagging along its median line, and its C wave can be counted complete as an ending diagonal, although as explained in the comments on the lower time frame analysis wave C may continue up a bit further
Looking at the RSI it is showing a bearish divergence gap on the 1 hour time frame
The rally since the bottom on 22nd March can be counted up to this point as a double zigzag WXY as shown in this chart.
The second zigzag of this double zigzag has followed the purple pitchfork nicely and has been tagging along its median line, and its C wave can be counted complete as an ending diagonal, although as explained in the comments on the lower time frame analysis wave C may continue up a bit further
Looking at the RSI it is showing a bearish divergence gap on the 1 hour time frame
Note
This is how wave C of Y is counted so far. It can be counted as a complete ending diagonal, but please bear in mind that the legs of the diagonals can be single, double or triple zigzags, so further subdivisions to higher prices can still happen within this ending diagonal. For me this is time to tighten stops (for those who are long) and taking profits.
This ending diagonal count is invalidated if price goes higher than 3100 as in that case wave 3 would be the smallest
Note
What I counted as a diagonal in the previous chart turned out to be a leading diagonal as wave 1 of C. Looks like wave C completed today and can be counted as follows:Note the break of the lower parallel of the pitchfork without reaching the median line
Things seem to be following the bearish case outlined in the previous posts. Will update with a new chart following the downtrend
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