S&P 500 IndexShort
Possible low-risk short trade
Updated
Note break of lower parallel of the well-validated blue pitchfork after multiple bearish divergences, indicating the first leg up is over at the 50% retracement. This can be counted as a zigzag.
A low-risk short trade is possible here with a stop just above the recent high at wave C. Need to watch the orange pitchfork and lower our stop loss along its upper parallel. If price breaks its upper parallel then more upside is likely, and we would need to consider the possibility of a double zigzag or nested 1-2, 1-2, and revise the wave count accordingly
Note that the move down off the high has been counted as an impulse with an expanding leading diagonal, although this can also be counted as a zigzag corrective structure and allowing the possibility for more upside.
I think the pitchforks should help guide us here
A low-risk short trade is possible here with a stop just above the recent high at wave C. Need to watch the orange pitchfork and lower our stop loss along its upper parallel. If price breaks its upper parallel then more upside is likely, and we would need to consider the possibility of a double zigzag or nested 1-2, 1-2, and revise the wave count accordingly
Note that the move down off the high has been counted as an impulse with an expanding leading diagonal, although this can also be counted as a zigzag corrective structure and allowing the possibility for more upside.
I think the pitchforks should help guide us here
Trade closed: stop reached
Although price did go down a bit, it did that in 3 waves and then went sideways forming a triangle. Stop was hit when price breached the orange pitchfork and I took a small loss. However that allowed me to switch to the bullish scenarios that I mentioned, initially considering the possibility of a double zigzag as in this chart. If it takes the high at 2894 off then I'll consider switching to the more bullish scenario of nested 1-2, 1-2 Trade active
The targets for the long trade I took when the previous orange pitchfork upper parallel was hit are the 0.618 and the 100% extensions of the first zigzag as shown hereThe purple pitchfork is working nicely for now and RSI is not giving any indication of a nearing top.
If price takes the high at 2894 then we'll consider the more bullish scenario of nested 1-2 1-2 with much higher targets but need to wait for the price to show some of its hand
Note
On the 1 min chart this blue pitchfork has guided the trade beautifully and allowed adding to the positionTrade closed: target reached
First target at 0.618 reached and trade closed, then price retraced
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