EURUSD: Today's Key Events Set Your Course
The EURUSD is facing a critical day driven by important economic data in both the Eurozone and the US. Today's releases could set the near-term direction for the pair as traders look for clues on economic growth and the state of the labor market.
Europe: Retail Sales and GDP
October retail sales data (10:00 CET) in the euro zone will be the first point of focus. This indicator reflects the health of consumption, a key component of GDP. Expectations are for monthly growth of 1.2%, up from the previous figure of 0.9%. A positive result could strengthen the euro, showing the resilience of consumption in an inflationary context.
At 11:00 CET, Q3 GDP will be released, with more conservative forecasts: 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y, versus previous data of 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Lower-than-expected growth could pressure the euro, especially if the weakness is also reflected in employment data for the same period.
United States: Labor Market in Focus
Attention will shift to the United States with Nonfarm Payrolls data (14:30 CET).A marked slowdown in job creation is expected, with only 12K versus 200K in the previous month. Despite this, a slight improvement in the unemployment rate is anticipated, dropping to 4.1% from 4.2%. If the data confirms a weakening in the labor market, the dollar could lose strength, giving support to the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Outlook
The EUR/USD is in a key range, hovering around support between 1.04506 and 1.04956 and resistance at 1.05996. Its current control point (POC) at 1.05266 could indicate some previous bearish pressure, currently the signal was given yesterday at 8 pm Spanish time in which the 50-average cross overtook the 100-average cross, indicating a change in the downtrend of the last few days. At the moment the RSI is slightly oversold at 61.35%.Positive data from Europe could help the euro regain ground against the dollar, especially if GDP surprises to the upside. Conversely, if U.S. employment data comes out better than expected, the dollar could strengthen, pushing the pair lower. Traders should monitor volatility following the data and watch for comments from Fed officials, who will also speak today. These signals could offer additional clues about the direction of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.
Conclusion: EUR/USD will face important catalysts today. Economic data from both sides of the Atlantic will have a significant impact on the direction of the pair, offering key opportunities for intraday traders.
Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Europe: Retail Sales and GDP
October retail sales data (10:00 CET) in the euro zone will be the first point of focus. This indicator reflects the health of consumption, a key component of GDP. Expectations are for monthly growth of 1.2%, up from the previous figure of 0.9%. A positive result could strengthen the euro, showing the resilience of consumption in an inflationary context.
At 11:00 CET, Q3 GDP will be released, with more conservative forecasts: 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y, versus previous data of 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Lower-than-expected growth could pressure the euro, especially if the weakness is also reflected in employment data for the same period.
United States: Labor Market in Focus
Attention will shift to the United States with Nonfarm Payrolls data (14:30 CET).A marked slowdown in job creation is expected, with only 12K versus 200K in the previous month. Despite this, a slight improvement in the unemployment rate is anticipated, dropping to 4.1% from 4.2%. If the data confirms a weakening in the labor market, the dollar could lose strength, giving support to the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Outlook
The EUR/USD is in a key range, hovering around support between 1.04506 and 1.04956 and resistance at 1.05996. Its current control point (POC) at 1.05266 could indicate some previous bearish pressure, currently the signal was given yesterday at 8 pm Spanish time in which the 50-average cross overtook the 100-average cross, indicating a change in the downtrend of the last few days. At the moment the RSI is slightly oversold at 61.35%.Positive data from Europe could help the euro regain ground against the dollar, especially if GDP surprises to the upside. Conversely, if U.S. employment data comes out better than expected, the dollar could strengthen, pushing the pair lower. Traders should monitor volatility following the data and watch for comments from Fed officials, who will also speak today. These signals could offer additional clues about the direction of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.
Conclusion: EUR/USD will face important catalysts today. Economic data from both sides of the Atlantic will have a significant impact on the direction of the pair, offering key opportunities for intraday traders.
Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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