Zooming out 1hr timeframe, possible price action scenarios.
Updated
Observations:
- BTC has been traveling between a 2% price range for about a day and half.
- Currently being rejected from 4HR exponential moving averages.
- Daily volume dropping, possible bear flag formation.
BTC is currently traveling within a $100 range (5k to 5.1k) zooming out can give us a better picture of where the price might go depending on the type of break we get.
Game plan & possible scenarios:
Maximum risk R:1 = .1% account value
Seeking a minimum RRR of 2:1
A break below 5k might have us retest the bottom of the channel that we are currently traveling in around the low 4.8K area, giving us a good entry if support holds and price doesn't break below dotted red line(stop loss below), we might be looking at a possible bounce towards the top of the channel 5.4k area... If price is not able to get above the exponentials in the 4hr I believe that our possibilities to break 4.8k level will increase, pushing BTC to the lower channel, and confirming the daily bear flag. (Please keep in mind we are currently traveling above daily exponentials and they can at as support)
Taking this into consideration I only feel comfortable entering a trade in BTC off support, taking a break out with this volume increases the odds of being faked out, unless the bulls break the 5.1k and price gets above the 4hr exponentials, even after that I did not obtain a 2:1.
The only breakout I am currently interested will be a break above 4.5k with heavy bull volume behind it.
Please keep in mind this are all hypothetical scenarios.
Disclosure:
Please keep in mind that this are simply my ideas on the market, I am in no way shape or form qualified to give anyone any financial advise. All I'm looking for is to become a better trader with time and the only way too do this is to post what I am looking at and take criticism from those of you that been doing this for a very long time, having said that please feel free to call me out on any mistakes, or incorrect analysis the best way to learn is from each other as a community.
- BTC has been traveling between a 2% price range for about a day and half.
- Currently being rejected from 4HR exponential moving averages.
- Daily volume dropping, possible bear flag formation.
BTC is currently traveling within a $100 range (5k to 5.1k) zooming out can give us a better picture of where the price might go depending on the type of break we get.
Game plan & possible scenarios:
Maximum risk R:1 = .1% account value
Seeking a minimum RRR of 2:1
A break below 5k might have us retest the bottom of the channel that we are currently traveling in around the low 4.8K area, giving us a good entry if support holds and price doesn't break below dotted red line(stop loss below), we might be looking at a possible bounce towards the top of the channel 5.4k area... If price is not able to get above the exponentials in the 4hr I believe that our possibilities to break 4.8k level will increase, pushing BTC to the lower channel, and confirming the daily bear flag. (Please keep in mind we are currently traveling above daily exponentials and they can at as support)
Taking this into consideration I only feel comfortable entering a trade in BTC off support, taking a break out with this volume increases the odds of being faked out, unless the bulls break the 5.1k and price gets above the 4hr exponentials, even after that I did not obtain a 2:1.
The only breakout I am currently interested will be a break above 4.5k with heavy bull volume behind it.
Please keep in mind this are all hypothetical scenarios.
Disclosure:
Please keep in mind that this are simply my ideas on the market, I am in no way shape or form qualified to give anyone any financial advise. All I'm looking for is to become a better trader with time and the only way too do this is to post what I am looking at and take criticism from those of you that been doing this for a very long time, having said that please feel free to call me out on any mistakes, or incorrect analysis the best way to learn is from each other as a community.
Note
I meant a breakout above 5.4K mixed the numbers up :/
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