BTC from a longterm Ichimoku's point of view.
I usually dont do (very) long term analysis like these, but the general amount of "oh look, a wedge/triangle, we must be going up/down" chart's i've been seeing are too damn high.
Current trend: Down since 4th of may
Current trend angle: Avg. -38° since peak (9985 USD)
Current resistance levels: 7800 / 7500 / 7225
Current support levels: 6825 / 6475
Current cloud resistance: 8200 - flat, till 18th of June
Best breakout chance: Between 18th and 24th of June, with primary around the 21st/22nd.
TL;DR Analysis: Downtrend, slowly slowing down to stabilise around 7k mark.
Long explanation:
Tracing the lines and following the Ichimoku cloud principle we can observe that the last attempted breakout and opportunity to break free, on the 23rd on april, was short lived. This was the moment we reached or previous high in this cycle of 9985 USD, on the 5th of may. Since then the general trend has been downwards, with only short moments of attempted reversals. The first opportunity to do this was around the 23rd of April, where the cloud was at it's thinnest, but failed hard.
Following Tenkan-Sen (the 9 day lagging line) we can see we're below the cloud at this time. Though, hopefully, it will slowly decrease the downtrend so BTC can stabilise, though this is left to be seen. For BTC to be able to break free of this downtrend and to be able to reverse into an uptrend, it will need to first meet up with the Senkou-Span (52 day average price), which at this point lies around 8200 USD. From there on out, it will need to break free and through the cloud to consider it as a viable uptrend. This means we need to jump atleast ±15% in price, before that happens. The next moment where BTC would have the best chance for a reversal will be between the 18th and 24th of June (marked in the blue box).
Current trend: Down since 4th of may
Current trend angle: Avg. -38° since peak (9985 USD)
Current resistance levels: 7800 / 7500 / 7225
Current support levels: 6825 / 6475
Current cloud resistance: 8200 - flat, till 18th of June
Best breakout chance: Between 18th and 24th of June, with primary around the 21st/22nd.
TL;DR Analysis: Downtrend, slowly slowing down to stabilise around 7k mark.
Long explanation:
Tracing the lines and following the Ichimoku cloud principle we can observe that the last attempted breakout and opportunity to break free, on the 23rd on april, was short lived. This was the moment we reached or previous high in this cycle of 9985 USD, on the 5th of may. Since then the general trend has been downwards, with only short moments of attempted reversals. The first opportunity to do this was around the 23rd of April, where the cloud was at it's thinnest, but failed hard.
Following Tenkan-Sen (the 9 day lagging line) we can see we're below the cloud at this time. Though, hopefully, it will slowly decrease the downtrend so BTC can stabilise, though this is left to be seen. For BTC to be able to break free of this downtrend and to be able to reverse into an uptrend, it will need to first meet up with the Senkou-Span (52 day average price), which at this point lies around 8200 USD. From there on out, it will need to break free and through the cloud to consider it as a viable uptrend. This means we need to jump atleast ±15% in price, before that happens. The next moment where BTC would have the best chance for a reversal will be between the 18th and 24th of June (marked in the blue box).
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