BitcoinLong
BTCUSD: Bad News Shake-off & Uptrend Continuation
Updated
After the 10-week accumulation phase from late May to late July, BTCUSD sparked off on a supposed 10-week rally upwards. After having hit both first and second target labeled on the chart, price topped just below $5000 on multiple exchanges. Subsequently, almost like pearls on a string, all sorts of negative fundamental news appeared, aggravating us bulls more and more as each day passed by.
By now,BTCUSD has been subject to so many dreary fundamental news (especially from China), that we were inclined to underestimate the impact of these. In reality, what many of us veterans thought was “FUD”-news proved to be very real, sending price on a downwards continuum.
(I’ve labelled just a few of the fundamentals on the chart as I am sure they can be used as descriptive variables for price developments)
After six consecutive days of downwards movement, I believe price have finally bottomed within the low-volume support zone between $3500 and 3728 with the CCI indicator suggesting the pair being oversold on the daily. I would expect the next couple of days to include some sideways movement before eventually shooting up to the previous mode. From here I would expectBTCUSD to have three more weeks of uptrend continuation before topping at $6000.
BTCUSD sparked off on a supposed 10-week rally upwards. After having hit both first and second target labeled on the chart, price topped just below $5000 on multiple exchanges. Subsequently, almost like pearls on a string, all sorts of negative fundamental news appeared, aggravating us bulls more and more as each day passed by.By now,
BTCUSD has been subject to so many dreary fundamental news (especially from China), that we were inclined to underestimate the impact of these. In reality, what many of us veterans thought was “FUD”-news proved to be very real, sending price on a downwards continuum.(I’ve labelled just a few of the fundamentals on the chart as I am sure they can be used as descriptive variables for price developments)
After six consecutive days of downwards movement, I believe price have finally bottomed within the low-volume support zone between $3500 and 3728 with the CCI indicator suggesting the pair being oversold on the daily. I would expect the next couple of days to include some sideways movement before eventually shooting up to the previous mode. From here I would expect
BTCUSD to have three more weeks of uptrend continuation before topping at $6000.Note
Negative news always travel faster but I suspect we will see more of the following: themerkle.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-will-likely-not-be-banned-after-all/
twitter.com/cnbcfastmoney/status/908089342605889536
Regulations on exchanges which arguable have a very shady past is bullish long term in my book. Interesting to see how this will pan out.
Note
Another negative burst to our collection:twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/908285586368167936
Note
While the news keep onrolling (twitter.com/cnLedger/status/908577960663199744 and more) sellers really jumped on and got momentum.Tried vigorously to catch a viable long trade as soon as I thought an immediate button has emerged. That proved to be close to impossible. So what's next?
Frankly it is hard to say and I will avoid trading this pair after the fundamental situation with China has unfolded. Trying to take a technical trade when the fundamentals are that unstable is a task for savants and psychics. I have not lost hope of my initial idea with a break with the earlier ATH but I may have to readjust the timing of it.
Note
Seems like the market is finally saturated with bad news. This came out twitter.com/cnLedger/status/908687698738556928 and shortly after the market began a reversal for the bulls.Note
The daily downtrend (7 day total) expires today, which gives us room for some sideways action around $4000 before shooting up.I begin to see hints that our Chinese friends are finding work-arounds for the current regulatory situation in China: news.bitcoin.com/regulations-push-chinese-bitcoin-volumes-to-otc-and-neighboring-countries/
I always thought it was more likely that the Chinese still wanted exposure in Bitcoins rather than (cash out) in CNY, because regulations make it so difficult to transact money over-seas on the traditional markets.
Note
During the last week and a half, sentiment showed a clear disbelief towards BTC's continuous bullrun in 2017. Many exchanged for cash, some went short and even rock-hard hands as my own (admittedly) scaled down on exposure.But as sentiment hit bottom, price action began to surge after a couple of days of chopping around, resulting in 2 range expansions within three days of trading. Within the couple of days we also saw an array of positive news hit the scene, which undoubtedly benefited to the upside.
My suspicion is that prices will stabilize around current price levels providing one last ounce of hope for the bears who are still short. As the next range expansion will then emerge from current price levels, I think it will be plausible to think we will witness a rapid move upwards potentially challenging the all-time high.
Note
While my target on the chart was not hit within the estimated time frame, it seems the market dynamics was outlined somewhat correct.I stand by the idea for now, and am still long BTCUSD. I will update this idea in a new thread soon.
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