🅱️ Still Bearish (Part 2) | Name Your Altcoin

Updated

It seems I called this one too early but I was not wrong, it is just too early... Do we agree?

It is not that Bitcoin will not enter a correction just that it is yet to do so, but things are looking good.

Since I've been gone for a while I need to know which Altcoins you are interested in, which Altcoins should I update first?

Bitcoin is looking great but the price already reached the April 2022 high which is the top for this bullish wave. So, watch out, it can go higher but a correction can develop at anytime.

The Altcoins are different though, specially the medium sized and smaller ones.
These can show plenty of room available for additional growth.

So let me know in the comments section which Altcoins you want me to look at first and I will publish everyday.

You will have to look into my profile in order to find the updates, daily.
I will do them all, one by one.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.

Note

Ok... First, let's do a general update and then I will go through your requests/charts one by one.

The year 2023 is coming to an end... It has been a wonderful year.
Lots of growth, lots of experiences, lots of ups and downs, a crazy year for sure for many but for others pretty standard since this is a consolidation year, it has been such for Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin; mainly a "recovery year".

It is my pleasure to write for you and this is why I believe Bitcoin is about to enter a major correction and take the entire market down with it.

Next, all those Altcoins that moved first grew as high as the same price/level they hit between March and April 2022. For Bitcoin, this is between 40,000 and 48,000. That's why you saw me mentioning this target in early 2023.

Here is Compound:

No new high now vs November and potentially a lower high which can lead to lower prices before up.
This is potentially... I can be early for sure but that's the thing, we are predicting a change of pace not perfect timing, just as we looked at the reversal late 2022/early 2023.

This is XRP:

No new high now vs November, decreasing volume.
Potentially a lower high and thus lower prices next.

This is a repeating theme.
Those that moved first, already peaked in November, it seems based on early signals.

This is Polygon:

The same. Decreasing volume, lower high, etc.

This is Chainlink:

Yes a new high but technically a double top so far.
This can also be seen as an irregular correction based on Elliot Wave theory. This is only confirmed once the breakdown happens.

Now, many pairs are hitting new highs... See Polkadot as an example:

Perfect new high but this can be the end, potentially.
Can be, it can also go higher but you get the point.
Caution is advised at this point.

👉 Enter when prices are low/red/near support.
👉 Exit when prices are high/green/near resistance.

These are the basics but easier written (said) than done.

Cardano is the same as Polkadot but it can go higher as it has not reach the same level as March/April 2022.

It is very important to keep in mind that each chart/pair needs to be considered separately.
While I am sharing the overall view of the market, many pairs can continue growing, many pairs can crash any day.

In fact, many pairs are growing and many pairs are already in correction mode.

Thanks a lot for reading.
And thank you for your continued support.

You are appreciated.

Namaste.

Note

Bitcoin continues bullish and many of the Altcoins are really strong.
Remember that the correction will only develop once the bullish wave is over.

The price range, 40,000 - 48,000, is only a projection, can be higher.
Potential can go to above 50,000 and even 60,000 depending on varied market factors.

After Bitcoin peaks, we will get the halving correction.
The 2024 halving correction can happen pre or post halving, there is no definite pattern on this part.

The catalyst for the correction can be the announcement and approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF or Binance shutting down, these are just two of the main signals to look for for a price peak.

How far up can it go?

For the Altcoins, all you have to do is to look at the prices between March and April 2022 and that's it. Those that moved first all stopped at this level.

While we will have ultra strong long-term growth, a correction can last for months. It will still end up in a higher low but those smart start to prepare now because it will be wild when everything starts to explode up.

Buy when low/red.
Sell when high/green.

Many of the Altcoins have been updated.
I will continue to do so, one by one.

Thanks for the follow.

Namaste.

Note

It seems the correction is starting right away but this is no big deal, corrections are normal and this one will end in a higher low.

In a previous trade idea I share all the levels that Bitcoin is likely to hit in this correction.

As for the Altcoins, the dynamic can vary wildly.
A retrace can go between 3-9 days. The initial reaction to Bitcoin dropping is always negative and marketwide. After this long many pairs can resume growing.

Some pairs will not only retrace but will also produce a full correction as mentioned above. These can move lower for 1-2 months depending on market conditions. It is still early to see how strong this one will be and how everything will be affected but this is part of normal market action.

It goes up and down, up and down... It has been going up and now it goes down.

➖ Those that are yet to move up still have growth potential.
➖ Those that already grew strong are bound to retrace and correct.

Everything will be perfectly fine, we focus on the long-term.

Patience is key.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.

Note

➖ Today, on the 4H TF, Bitcoin produced the highest bear volume since 17-August, indicating that the current move is only getting started.

➖ The Bitcoin CME Futures premium is beginning to disappear.
Here we can see all the GAPs and potential targets for the current move:

No surprise here, Bitcoin grew for more than a year so a correction is normal, healthy and expected.

Just adapt accordingly and know that once support is found Bitcoin will move back up.
Also keep in mind that late 2024 (May-June forward) and 2025 will be amazing for Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency market.

Prepare as best as you can.

Note

The daily candle closed and we have the worst day since mid-August.
Highest sell volume since mid-August as well and a close below EMA10.

Since 21-June, buy volume has been dropping.
Volume goes really high as the breakdown starts to develop.

The high volume is indicative of the start of a new move.

🅱️ For how long can Bitcoin grow straight up?

Bitcoin grew straight up for 8 weeks, from mid-October through early December.
The two weeks in early October are part of a small retrace, if we count the entire wave from the mid-September higher low, Bitcoin grew for 84 days which is really good, a lot and strong.

Now, going back to the 8 weeks... Can it keep on going?
This is already an anomaly based on past history, Bitcoin only grows in this way when it is in a full blown bull market which always happens after the halving event, not before.

Since the market always surprises... Since Bitcoin is amazing, it tends to go for longer than what people expect but it also changes and is hard to predict exactly how, why and when.

8 Weeks green is a lot! Can it go for 9 weeks? 11, 12, 15 weeks?
Can it grow forever straight up without a correction because... Because of this reason or that reason?

The truth is that the charts told us exactly that this was going to take place.
Bitcoin hit bottom around November 2022 which opened the doors for a recovery bullish phase.
The recovery phase lasted for more than a year and the halving is getting closer with each passing day.

There is normally a pre-halving correction, so the current situation shouldn't be surprising but instead it can be taken advantage of if you trade. The market will always continue to move in waves.

Total growth since November 2022 to peak price amounts to 189%. This is a good one.
We can be fast to point out that in previous cycles Bitcoin grew more, but the asset is older now, bigger now, more mature so the swings are less wild and this can stunt potential growth.

Consider the bear-market, the correction ended sooner than expected because Bitcoin cannot correct as hard and as deep as before, for the same reasons.

Here is another weekly chart:

We have a corrective consolidation phase lasting for 154 days, a little more than 5 months.
Based on Elliot's law of alternation, the ensuing correction can be fast and strong.

Some calculations previously done points toward February for a low/bottom/support, but this is quite arbitrary and I would have to go deeper into the numbers to give you something with more substance but this is a place to start.

Remain open to see anything and everything happening but don't expect prices going too low.

Remember El Salvador's Bitcoin Bonds and the Bitcoin Spot ETF, while they can lead to a correction and shakeouts based on market hype, it is a strongly bullish development for the long-term.

2024 Will be an amazing year for Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency market.
This is a great time to plan ahead and prepare.

We will have many months to see peoples doubt develop before the major bull-run.
You want to go beyond the noise in order to achieve maximum results.

Whatever happens... It will not be the end of the world.
It will keep on coming back, regardless of the news, the weather or what any individual country or government does.

Life will always provide you positive and negative cycles, phases of stagnation, phases of retraces and corrections followed by phases of growth.

We just need to learn to navigate through these phases and maximize profits on the way up.

What if we make a huge or several big mistakes?
Nothing happens... We accept responsibility and use the experience for growth.

If we approach our inevitable mistakes in this way, life changes from a painful nightmare, to a game of growth and fun.

Think about it... It doesn't matter what happened in the past, you continue living and you smiled recently and there are always moments that makes it worthwhile to go on.

Anyway, we don't have a choice... We have to continue living like it or not.
So make the best of it because long-term, Bitcoin is going up!

Namaste.

Note

Tuesday daily candle closed neutral, which works to support the previous candle.
What we saw on Monday continues today (Wednesday).

Bitcoin is currently trading around $41,111 after peaking just below 45K.
This happened after MA200 was conquered as resistance, this produced a bullish wave.

Once the bullish wave loses its force, the main level that opened the doors for growth now needs to be tested as support:

Bitcoin is aiming for $30,500 in the least... It can be more but not less based on the resistance turned into support dynamic or pattern.

Things can change and I will keep you updated as we go, but it is likely that Bitcoin will fill all the GAPs including the one above 20K, because after the halving we will have a major bull-market ending in a massive bull-run.

👉 150,000? Maybe 180,000 as the 2025 TOP!

Namaste.

Note

Tether Dominance just hit a strong support level and volume can be seen rising... It is still early but this signal being confirmed can give further strength to our correction thesis.

On the other hand, FETUSDT can be seen hitting a new high today, its highest level since January 2022.
FeatchAI moved first and if this pair continues higher and confirms the day by closing green, it might mean that no correction will take place.

What one does, the rest follows... So we keep an eye on this one, as things can change.

We continue bearish on Crypto.

Namaste.

Note

Lower high still in place. Caution!

Note

A massive drop in LONGs is happening right now...

All through 2022, as Bitcoin started to decline in price (the bear market), players started to build a strong LONG position, based on this chart.

By June 2022, the orthodox end of the bear-market, LONGs peaked and remained within All-Time Highs through early 2023. This dynamic is fully changing now.

The BitFinex LONGs so far declined by more than 33.3%, with a huge crash after 13-November 2023.
It is as if some people know something the rest of us don't know...

What we do know is this: LONGs went up throughout the bear market (bottom prices) and recently started to go down (relatively high prices)... Only after more than a year of sustained growth and less than 5 months away from the halving event.

Watch-out! Something big is about to take place.

Will Binance shutdown sooner than expected?

No idea...

Namaste.

Note

The daily MACD is showing a bearish cross while trading at its highest level since November 2021. This means that there is room for a drop. Just wait for the last high to break, if it doesn't break, remain bearish.

If the last high breaks, go bullish.

Note

In a previous update we looked at MA200 on the daily timeframe.
A target of $30,000 minimum, based on the moving averages and other signals.

This is "short-term" which can take days or weeks.

Looking at the "near short-term", which can happen much sooner, the next drop will take Bitcoin towards 38/39,000.
The wick can go straight to 37,000 with the final support range being 37,000 - 39,000.

Note

📈 Major Altcoins TOP!

➖Q: Why Are Medium And Small Sized Altcoins Set To Produce Massive Growth?

➖A: Because The Big Capitalization Altcoins Are Set To Produce A Massive Retrace!

Money will flow from Bitcoin and the big Altcoins to the smaller ones.

As Bitcoin and the alts correct, everything else will grow.

The initial reaction on a strong drop can be negative, i.e. everything drops at the same time but after the initial reaction is over we can see the rest of the market recover while the bigger ones produce a major corrective wave.

Look at these charts...

Solana

The last two peaks closed on red candles and volume is starting to decrease.

There can always be a last "hooray", a final jump but caution is advised at this point.

Chainlink

No new highs since 9-Dec. Already within an irregular correction based on Elliot Wave Theory.

Tellor

This is the same as LINK. The last two session closed red, decreasing volume, lower high confirmed...

BinanceCoin

The price here is quite lower but it can be seen trading below EMA300 after multiple rejections at this level.

Bitcoin

Bear volume can be seen rising while we get some lower highs. 37-39000 first followed by 30,000.

Even if there is additional growth, it would only go for a few more days, weeks at maximum and then the major retrace. This is the important part to keep in mind.

We looked at great bottom out charts as open LONG opportunities, with huge potential for growth, these were trading near support.

Now we see many pairs trading within resistance, very high up, some with thousands of percentage points in the green. It can grow more but this is where we look to exit our positions or in the least secure some profits.

Namaste.

Note

Today, Bitcoin is set to close the first week red since mid-October.

Each time we get a red week we either get another red week (a 2nd one) or a full retrace/correction.

So we are talking about 7 more days red or 4-6 weeks red total.
Confirmation comes in less than 12 hours.

➖ You've been warned.
➖ Caution is advised.
➖ Prepare accordingly... Opportunities are endless in this market.

Namaste.

Trade closed manually

Thanks a lot for the support.

I will share a new Bitcoin (BTCUSD) trade idea with an update view of the market.

Namaste.

Note

Are we bullish?

Good news and bad news.

Let's start with the chart:

➖ Good news: The downtrend line (blue) has been broken. An opportunity for growth opens up.

➖ Bad news: Plenty of resistance overhead before Bitcoin can be considered bullish again. These are marked green on the chart.

Note

The first resistance level is being challenged and 15M worth of SHORTS liquidated within the past hour...

Note

This is it, this is the last one!
Good luck my dear friends. Let's hope everything turns out fine.

It's been a very long journey... It has been great growth, lots of experiences, lots of work, lots of challenges, lots of fun...

Namaste.

Note

🍀 WHY THE ANXIETY?

I asked myself this question in relation to trading, why the anxiety?

Why do we feel stressed, unsure, insecure, uncomfortable when making a decision? After the decision is made while waiting, why the doubt and uncertainty?

Let's dive into this topic together because it is really important if you want to start trading or already trade and face this very much a common problem.

If you are feeling anxious before making a decision, before "pulling the trigger" on a pair, this might mean that you are not ready to bear the weight of your actions. It might mean that you are not prepared for the different outcomes, it might mean that you are not ready to make this move, to follow through. When we do our homework, our decision making process should be flawless, it tends to feel good.

No anxiety before buying but stress, doubt and insecurity afterward, why does this happens?

If you are doing just fine but become anxious after you made your move, this might mean that something is wrong. It can literally be a signal your body is sending you, trying to reach you, your mind, communicating that what you are doing and what you belief are not in agreement.

Your body has infinite intelligence, divine wisdom.
Your mind tends to express itself through the ego.

Your body runs all of the systems you need to survive, i.e. breathing, creates all of the chemicals that are needed every second, the hormones, proteins and such. Your body controls the temperature as well as the ph balance of your blood, your body knows everything because it is guided by divine wisdom while your ego can only react and know things that are present in the conscious memories of your mind.

If anxiety and stress become apparent after a decision is made, step back and review your plan, there might be something missed, for example, the size of your position might just be too big, a loss might be too tough and thus the anxiety.

Trading should be easy.
Trading should be profitable.
Trading is bound to be fun.

If you are feeling anxious, insecure, full with doubt or worse, it just means that you need more time to study, to prepare, better planning, maybe even better health before you start the show.

Take the time to prepare... What would you do if things don't go your way?

What would you do if everything goes fine, the market moves in your expected direction, when will you sell and buy how much?

What if there is a sudden crash in one of the pairs you are trading, will you hold? If yes, for how long? Will you close at a loss? If yes, when and which criteria needs to meet for you to move forward?

It is unwise to change your stop-loss after the drop has already started...
It is unwise to change your resistance and move your targets higher...

It is all a waiting game... But at one point, we have to take action and for this moment we have to prepare.

Do your research and anxiety goes away.

Namaste.

Note

We have two bearish signals developing right now on an open session. The session closes in 20 minutes and red would confirm a lower high and also the following repeating pattern:

This one is still in the making (early signal)
4H

Here is how it is looking on the daily timeframe:

👉 A negative close today as the candle is looking would open the doors for the 39,000-37,000 price range to be visited. It is still early but please, prepare accordingly.

Be blessed my dear friend.
You are loved and you deserve the best this world, this life has to offer.

Accept any and all setbacks as part of your personal, physical and spiritual growth. Life is a play of opposites, so there is bound to be some down mixed with the ups.

Regardless, we accept and integrate the experience, good or bad as it helps us grow... In time, we reach our goal and experience the life we want.

I will always be with you.

Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.

AlanSantana

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