BitcoinLong
BTC 2015 Parabolic Start vs. Current
This roughly compares the start of the 2015 bull run to our current market based on the fib retracement of the first expansion up out of accumulation. I focused on using fib retracement to predict the future movement, but it will differ slightly as I had to consider resistance levels at the top of the last two parabolic advances. The 50 day EMA was also frequently used as support at the start of 2015 and during the run up. This initial run up hasn't hit the 50 day EMA yet and the initial retracement was not nearly as time consuming and severe as 2015 (if the initial retracement is over). This may be due to the greater adaptation of BTC and the general understanding of BTC cycles, in particularly by institutions and their readiness to enter the market.
This quickening of the market cycle, may make our next run up more similar to the run up in 2013 where a second parabolic advance took place before the bear market really hit hard. Going forward, we may need to adjust expectations in regards to smaller retracements and a shorter EMA period for bounces due to this fact. I would also assume the money that powered such a strong and early entry into this current phase will also preemptively exit sooner than expected (this early exit again may also contribute to a second parabolic phase during this bull cycle similar to 2013). In general, less volatility with stronger resistance to dips and earlier exits on parabolic advancements will be good for bitcoin's mass adaptation. A less volatile asset will be adopted into more and more investment vehicles the general public will have access to, investment vehicles they feel more comfortable investing in for the long term.
This quickening of the market cycle, may make our next run up more similar to the run up in 2013 where a second parabolic advance took place before the bear market really hit hard. Going forward, we may need to adjust expectations in regards to smaller retracements and a shorter EMA period for bounces due to this fact. I would also assume the money that powered such a strong and early entry into this current phase will also preemptively exit sooner than expected (this early exit again may also contribute to a second parabolic phase during this bull cycle similar to 2013). In general, less volatility with stronger resistance to dips and earlier exits on parabolic advancements will be good for bitcoin's mass adaptation. A less volatile asset will be adopted into more and more investment vehicles the general public will have access to, investment vehicles they feel more comfortable investing in for the long term.
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