We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold.
MS.
The recovery from 140 has been nothing short of impressive. The daily RSI is confirming the rising prices on the daily chart, and momentum suggests USD/JPY wants to head for the 200-day MA around the 151 handle.
There are some concerns that that inflation could pick up due to the hot NFP report, so we may find that pre-emptive bets prompt a break of the August...
A combination of factors saw crude oil snap its 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. China's equity markets plunged at double-digit levels when traders realised no new stimulus from China was to be unveiled after golden weak. US production forecasts were lowered by the EIA and concerns over the Middle East receded somewhat.
An elongated bearish engulfing / outside...
A bullish trend has developed on the daily chart. Prices have pulled back lower, yet support was found at the 50 retracement level and the cross now trades back above the 200-day MA.
A bullish divergence has formed on the 4-hout chart, and price action appears to be corrective on this timeframe. Also note that the 2-year spread between GB-CH yields ahead of...
Gold futures look set to have another crack at 2700 over the near-term, given the strong rebound from the 2650 area on Tuesday and the tight bull-flag pattern developing on the intraday chart. Whether it can simply break to a new high is likely down to whether tensions in the Middle East escalate further.
A prominent bearish outside / engulfing day formed on Friday. Moreover, it failed to hold above the 200-day MA and closed the day back below the 100 handle. And its high almost perfectly respected the high-volume node (HVN) from the July high to August low.
A bullish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart after the initial selloff found support around a 38.2%...
The USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a...
Matt takes another look at Bitcoin futures to update his analysis from last week, which seems to be playing nicely with his view that it is trying to carve out a swing low on the daily chart and muster up the strength for a rally.
An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Looking at Bitcoin futures and how real-money accounts are positioned, a larger move higher could be brewing. But first, a nice setup could also be forming on the daily chart for a cheeky swing higher, if nothing else.
Metals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
It is good to finally see the USD strength we were calling for finally come into play. It may have a little further to run, which could see further downside on the weekly chart for EUR/USD. But first, we look at a potential long on the daily and 4-hour chart, taking the weekly analysis into account.
On one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
MS
The Dow Jones trades in a gently upwards sloping channel. Having recovered from 38,400, the August low, the price rose to a fresh all-time high of 41,582 yesterday. The price hovers just below here today but is still above the near-term falling trendline support level.
Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50, will look to rise above 41,582 towards 42k and fresh...
Gold may have reached a record high on Tuesday, but it then handed back more than half of the day's gains to leave a long upper wick. The ATH met resistance at the weekly R2 pivot and the daily RSI (2) has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone.
A momentum shift can be seen at the ATH on the 1-hour chart. A bearish divergence has also formed on this...
Picking inflection points is not for everyone. But taking into account the two months of heavy USD selling, disapproval of a 'strong yen' from the BOJ and arguably oversold USD/JPY, perhaps some bullish mean reversion is due.
We take a look at the monthly, daily and 4-hour charts to show key levels.
We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment...
