The BOJ held rates as expected and the BOE are expected to hold rates later today, and unlikely to provide a particularly dovish tone. With that in-depth central bank analysis out the way, I want to share a nice looking long setup on the daily and 1-hour chart. I also take a quick peak at seasonality in December which points towards a bullish bias over the near term.
MS
Strong economic data for the US alongside expectations for the Fed to significantly reduce the pace of their easing cycle has been a main driver for USD bulls. And while the dollar could reach new high with the current backdrop, we're about to enter a phase of the year which greatly favours USD bears. Looking at monthly and daily seasonality patterns in December...
The Dow Jones futures market fell for an 8th consecutive day on Monday, a bearish sequence not seen in over 12 years. And that's not good news for ASX 200 bulls, as the index tends to track the Dow very closely.
The daily chart looks like it wants to head to 8200, and it just 1 - 2 bearish trading days away from it looking at a typical day's range. The 1-hour...
The Nasdaq reached a record high and the S&P 500 is close to reaching its own record high. So while the Dow was lower for a fourth day, 2 out of 3 indices rising could help support the ASX today.
It's been over a week since the ASX began retracing from its record high, and with prices now trying to form a base above the monthly pivot point and historical weekly...
My short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as...
The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, but there were several changes to their December statement which warrant a closer look. I highlight the key differences to the November statement and provide my interpretation of what it means for the RBA's policy as we head into next year, then look at AUD/USD.
MS
Bets are back on for the RBA to cut, with markets having now fully priced in three 25bp cuts beginning in April. Weak GDP was the culprit, which leaves the Aussie susceptible to further weakness should incoming data continue to deteriorate. However, Aussie bears may also need to factor the yuan into the equation.
This is the question I am asking myself as we head into 2025. CAD has been the weakest major for some time now based on the BOC's easing cycle, and we saw a record level of net-short exposure against it in August, and another surge of shorts in November. This strikes me as a stale trade that is vulnerable to a shakeout, and it might not require a particularly...
While the USD and yen have been the strongest currencies so far this week, I suspect the decline on the USD/JPY daily chart is overdone on the daily chart and due a bounce.
A Doji formed on Monday at the October VPOC (volume point of control) to suggest demand just above 149. Given the bullish divergence on the daily and 4-hour RSI (2), the bias is to seek dips...
The 124k target remains in play overall, but for now I suspect the shakeout from its 100k milestone has more to offer bears. And while bitcoin prices are showing a nice breakout from a flag pattern on the 1-hour chart, bulls should take note that today (the day after Thanksgiving) tends to be a bearish day on average. And that could make any moves towards 100k...
The ASX 200 futures market has struggled to retest 8500, after a brief and uninspiring spell above it. Overnight gains on Tuesday were seen on low volumes, and Wall Street indices have provided a weak lead today. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily and 1-hour chart.
While prices have rebounded from the weekly pivot point, price action looks...
S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
We're at that time of the year that gold tends to outperform. Yet with bigger drivers behind the wheel, I doubt that gold's 5% rebound will extend through to December. In fact, I'm now looking for short entries. Using stats from seasonality, ETF flows and market positioning, I outline my base for bears before highlighting key levels for them to consider.
MS.
AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk. So I find it quite interesting to see that price action clues on the monthly chart are not too dissimilar to what we saw ahead of the GFC high in 2007. And if AUD/JPY plunges, the chances are it means global markets will also be in turmoil.
MS.
Last week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that.
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken...
AUD/USD has risen for a thirds day from its multi-week low, and shows the potential to head for 66c It is the second day in a row the market closed just off its daily high and the daily RSI (2) is not yet overbought.
However, the October high makes a likely interim resistance level which could spark a pullback before dip buyers return. Bulls could seek dips down...
This is purely observational, but today I noticed that Hang Seng futures have risen from a 61.8% Fibonacci level six times this year. And as the rallies have landed anywhere between 6.5% to nearly 50%, it is worth noting that it is trying to rally from it a seventh.
A 3-day bullish reversal pattern formed on Monday (morning star formation) and the daily RSI (2)...
Once every so often I look at a chart and instantly get struck by a familiar pattern, which is exactly what happened today with the S&P 500 futures chart. And with asset managers firmly backing the ES1! futures market, I'm not on guard for a bounce form support. Just as long as Nvidia earnings allow.
MS.
